Treasury Yields Head To 'Danger Zone': Analyst Forecasts Potential Spike To 5%, Disorderly Sell-Off For Markets
Treasury Yields Head To 'Danger Zone': Analyst Forecasts Potential Spike To 5%, Disorderly Sell-Off For Markets
Yields on the 10-year Treasury note have ascended to a striking 4.70% this month, the highest mark since early November 2023 amid a toxic mix of higher inflation, a stubbornly resilient economy and revised expectations around Federal Reserve rate cuts.
10年期美國國債的收益率本月已升至驚人的4.70%,爲2023年11月初以來的最高水平,這是通貨膨脹率上升、經濟強勁彈性以及對聯儲局降息預期的修正所致。
Adding to the unease, Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently indicated the latest economic data does not bolster confidence that inflation will converge towards the Fed's 2% target soon.
更令人不安的是,聯儲局主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾最近表示,最新的經濟數據並不能增強人們對通貨膨脹將很快接近聯儲局2%目標的信心。
The bond market strain is also reflected in the performance of related instruments, such as the US Treasury 10 Year Note ETF (NYSE:UTEN), which is down by 2.9% for April, making it the most challenging month since September 2023.
債券市場的壓力也反映在相關工具的表現上,例如美國國債10年期國債ETF(紐約證券交易所代碼:UTEN),4月份下跌2.9%,是自2023年9月以來最具挑戰性的月份。
Longer-dated Treasury exchange-traded funds (ETFs), such as the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT), fell even more, down 5.6% month to date.
長期美國國債交易所交易基金(ETF),例如iShares 20年以上國債ETF(納斯達克股票代碼:TLT),跌幅更大,迄今爲止下跌了5.6%。
Chart: 10-Year Treasury Yields Eye The 5% Red Line
圖表:10年期國債收益率關注5%的紅線
Analysts Rethink Fed's Next Moves: Vanguard Issues Warnings When Yields Hit 5%
分析師重新考慮聯儲局的下一步行動:當收益率達到5%時,Vanguard發出警告
The landscape of Fed policy expectations is being redrawn by analysts who, until recently, had not anticipated such aggressive shifts in Treasury yields. Few had foreseen yields approaching levels that could destabilize the market.
分析師正在重新描繪聯儲局的政策預期格局,直到最近,他們還沒有預料到美國國債收益率會出現如此激進的變化。很少有人預見到收益率將接近可能破壞市場穩定的水平。
Yet, Vanguard's head of international rates Ales Koutny offered a stark warning: "We are in a danger zone right now."
然而,Vanguard的國際利率主管阿萊斯·庫特尼發出了嚴厲的警告:“我們現在處於危險地帶。”
Koutny believed that surpassing the 4.75% yield threshold could trigger a severe sell-off, potentially driving rates to or beyond 5%.
庫特尼認爲,超過4.75%的收益率門檻可能會引發嚴重的拋售,有可能將利率推高至或超過5%。
As recently reported by Bloomberg, investors flocked to Treasuries late last year, anticipating a quick easing of Federal Reserve policies. However, resilient economic data from the U.S. has dampened these expectations, turning the tide against market optimists.
正如彭博社最近報道的那樣,去年年底,投資者湧向美國國債,他們預計聯儲局將迅速放鬆政策。但是,來自美國的彈性經濟數據抑制了這些預期,扭轉了市場樂觀主義者的局面。
Koutny revealed, "We still think that there's a residual long position left over." The lack of orderly adjustment in these positions could precipitate a chaotic market selloff, risking a yield spike to critical levels.
庫特尼透露:“我們仍然認爲還有剩餘的多頭頭寸。”這些頭寸缺乏有序調整可能會引發混亂的市場拋售,從而有可能使收益率飆升至臨界水平。
Despite the prevailing negative market sentiment, the current high yields have attracted some opportunistic buying.
儘管普遍存在負面市場情緒,但當前的高收益率吸引了一些機會主義買盤。
The latest data from JPMorgan Chase & Co. indicates a significant shift in investor positioning towards Treasuries, marking the first net long stance since March.
摩根大通的最新數據表明,投資者對美國國債的定位發生了重大轉變,這是自3月份以來的首次淨多頭頭寸。
The robust demand was further evidenced by a successful 20-year Treasury auction, closing at yields slightly lower than anticipated, suggesting underlying market confidence in Treasury securities despite broader concerns.
20年期美國國債拍賣的成功進一步證明了強勁的需求,收盤收益率略低於預期,這表明儘管存在更廣泛的擔憂,但基礎市場仍對美國國債充滿信心。
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Photo: Shutterstock
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。