受到特种行业调整影响，公司力学相关业务板块营收增速较上年放缓，同时受到成本刚性的影响，部分业务毛利率也有所下滑。2023 年公司结构力学性能测试分析系统营收2.22 亿元，同增2.95%；毛利率65.91%，同比减少2.07pcts；结构安全在线监测及防务装备 PHM系统营收0.68 亿元，同比降低17.02%，毛利率63.96%，同比减少3.84pcts。基于 PHM 的设备智能维保管理平台营收0.24 亿元，同比降低26.33%。同时公司电化学工作站业务由于民品占比较高，因此实现了良好增长，2023 年公司电化学工作站业务实现营收0.58 亿元，同比增长87.41%，毛利率67.82%，同比降低0.83pcts。我们认为公司2023 年业务承压主要系行业调整原因，公司当前技术实力以及生产能力未发生大规模变化，因此如果行业回暖公司对应业务有望重回增长区间。Incident: Donghua Testing discloses its 2023 Annual Report and 2024 Quarterly Report. In 2023, the company's revenue was 378 million, up 3.03% year on year; net profit to mother was 88 million yuan, down 27.94% year on year. Q1 revenue in 2024 was 104 million yuan, up 45.16% year on year; net profit to mother was 27 million yuan, up 165.7% year on year.
The decline in performance in 2023 is due to industry fluctuations. 2024Q1 has already recovered the company's net profit decline in 2023, but at the same time, Q1 2024's performance grew rapidly. By observing the company's announcement, it can be seen that the revenue corresponding to orders that the company has signed a contract with but has not yet been fulfilled was 125 million yuan in 2023, an increase of 45.35% over 2022, while the products issued by the company at the end of 2023 were 122 million yuan (cost pricing). Therefore, we believe that in 2023, some downstream industries of the company underwent mid-term rectification, and the pace of downstream customer projects slowed down. As a result, the pace of obtaining the company's business orders was delayed, and at the same time, there was a delay in confirming the signed orders. We believe that part of the unconfirmed revenue at the end of 2023 was recovered in Q1 2024. Since this portion of the unconfirmed business mainly occurred in 2022, there are fewer amortization costs and expenses to be borne in the current period, resulting in a higher growth rate of Q1 performance in 2024 than the revenue growth rate.
The mechanical sector was pressurized for a short period of time, and the electrochemical workstation performed well
Affected by special industry adjustments, the revenue growth rate of the company's mechanics-related business sector slowed down compared to the previous year. At the same time, due to cost rigidity, the gross margin of some businesses also declined. In 2023, the company's structural mechanical performance testing and analysis system revenue was 222 million yuan, up 2.95%; gross profit margin was 65.91%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.07 pcts; the revenue of the PHM system for structural safety online monitoring and defense equipment was 68 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.02%, and the gross profit margin was 63.96%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.84 pcts. The revenue of the PHM-based intelligent equipment maintenance management platform was 0.24 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.33%. At the same time, the company's electrochemical workstation business achieved good growth due to the relatively high share of consumer products. In 2023, the company's electrochemical workstation business achieved revenue of 58 million yuan, an increase of 87.41% over the previous year, and a gross profit margin of 67.82%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.83 pcts. We believe that the pressure on the company's business in 2023 is mainly due to industry adjustments. The company's current technical strength and production capacity have not changed on a large scale, so if the industry recovers, the company's corresponding business is expected to return to the growth range.
Sensor research and development is progressing steadily, and it is expected to benefit from future developments in the robotics field. According to the company's annual report, the company optimized and transformed the sensor production line in 2023, improving sensor production and supply capacity. First, the company is further increasing its investment in sensor research and development. The performance of various sensor products has been upgraded to improve product performance and competitiveness; secondly, in response to market demand, the company has developed a large number of new products, and completed the development of products such as GZW50/120 intrinsically safe vibration temperature sensors, integrated eddy fluidization sensors, acoustic emission sensors, high temperature pressure sensors, fiber grating sensors, etc. At the same time, some products such as six-component force sensors, impact pulse sensors, and magnetostrictive sensors have entered the internal development stage. Sensors have rich usage scenarios in the military, industry, and robotics fields. As domestic humanoid robot research and development progress progresses, we believe that the domestic sensor field is expected to usher in more room for development, and Donghua Testing is also expected to benefit from it.
Investment advice:
The company is a leader in the structural mechanical performance testing industry. Its main business provides strong support for the company's performance growth. At the same time, the company is actively expanding the new business of torque sensors, PHM intelligent maintenance platforms and electrochemical workstations. Multiple growth curves have gradually been formed. We expect the company's net profit for 2024-2026 to be 183 million and 207 million 251 million, respectively, giving 35 times PE in 2024, corresponding to a 6-month target price of 46.20 yuan, maintaining a buy-A investment rating.
Risk warning: the expansion of new businesses and new sectors falls short of expectations, and industry competition intensifies
