TENCENT HOLDINGS(700.HK):DEDICATED HIGH QUALITY GROWTH STRATEGY
TENCENT HOLDINGS(700.HK):DEDICATED HIGH QUALITY GROWTH STRATEGY
Tencent will report 1Q24 results on 14 May. We expect moderate 5% YoY topline growth of RMB157bn, contributed by -3% YoY soft VAS on high base game and streaming adjustments while 18% YoY solid ad and 12% YoY resilient fintech. GPM and adj. NPM meet streets' expectation at 49.7% and 27.3%, respectively. We deem committed executions of high quality growth strategy of all key segments on solidified competitive edges provide visible certainty on financials going forward. We expect accelerated YoY topline growth in 2Q-4Q24E mainly on rebounded online game, eliminations of streaming adjustments, solid ad and fintech momentum. Coupled with strong capital return initiatives, maintain BUY and our TP of HK$407.0.
騰訊將於5月14日公佈24年第一季度業績。我們預計，收入同比溫和增長5％，達到1570億元人民幣，這得益於高基數遊戲和直播調整帶來的同比軟增值-3％，而穩健的廣告同比增長18％，彈性金融科技，同比增長12％。GPM 和 adj。NPM分別達到華爾街的49.7％和27.3％的預期。我們認爲，在鞏固的競爭優勢基礎上堅定執行所有關鍵細分市場的高質量增長戰略，爲未來的財務狀況提供了明顯的確定性。我們預計，2Q-4Q24E 的收入將加速同比增長，這主要歸因於在線遊戲的反彈、直播調整的取消、穩健的廣告和金融科技勢頭。加上強勁的資本回報計劃，維持買入和目標價407.0港元。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Committed strategy provides visible financial certainty. We deem Co. will unswervingly and patiently execute their high quality growth strategy for social, game, online ad and fintech businesses amid macro uncertainties and intensified competitions. We expect streaming cut and high base game impact on VAS will gradually fade away from 2Q23 onwards. We believe stabilisation of top games grossing, outperformances of mid-tier domestic games, launches of new games and supercell contribution will support accelerated YoY growth of online game in 2Q-4Q24. Online ad will be consistently benefitted by video account monetisation and enhanced commercialisation capability and efficiency empowered by AI and various ad products. Thus, we keep our 2024-2026E game revenue estimations unchanged, trim our social network and fintech revenue estimations by 1-2% while nudge up our online ad revenue forecasts by 1%. We largely maintain our 2024-2026E GPM and bottom line estimations unchanged to reflect Co.'s committed growth strategy.
承諾的策略提供了明顯的財務確定性。我們認爲，在宏觀不確定性和競爭加劇的情況下，Co. 將堅定不移地耐心地執行社交、遊戲、在線廣告和金融科技業務的高質量增長戰略。我們預計，從23年第二季度起，直播削減和高基礎遊戲對VAS的影響將逐漸消失。我們認爲，在 2Q-4Q24 中，頂級遊戲收入的穩定、中端國內遊戲的出色表現、新遊戲的推出和超級細胞的貢獻將支持中在線遊戲的同比加速增長。在線廣告將持續受益於視頻賬戶獲利，以及人工智能和各種廣告產品賦予的商業化能力和效率的提高。因此，我們將2024-2026E遊戲收入預測保持不變，將社交網絡和金融科技收入預期下調了1-2％，同時將在線廣告收入預測上調了1％。我們在很大程度上維持了2024-2026年的GPM和利潤估計值不變，以反映Co.堅定的增長戰略。
1Q24 preview: VAS impacted by high base game and streaming cut; resilient ad and fintech; inline GPM and adj. NPM. We model total revenue to grow 5% YoY to RMB157.5bn, -1% below consensus. We expect soft -3% YoY VAS mainly impacted by domestic game on 1Q23 high base and streaming cut on TME and Huya, partially offsetting by solid mini-game and music subs. Social network and VAS online game revenue is forecasted to drop -2% YoY and -4% YoY to RMB30.4bn and RMB46.6bn respectively. Resilient online ad will deliver 18% YoY to RMB24.7bn mainly benefitted by video account, mini program, mobile ad network and TME ad. Fintech and business services revenue will log 12% YoY to RMB54.7bn. GPM of 49.7%, in line with streets' expectation on consistent structural mix shift within 3 segments and improved cost efficiency. Adj. net profit is estimated to display 32% YoY to RMB43.0bn, with adj. NPM reaching 27.3%, also in line with consensus.
24 年第一季度預覽：增值收入受高基數遊戲和直播削減的影響；彈性廣告和金融科技；在線GPM和adj。NPM。我們預計總收入將同比增長5％，達到1575億元人民幣，比市場預期低-1％。我們預計，增值同比疲軟 3%，主要受國內遊戲在23年第一季度的高基數以及騰訊和虎牙的直播削減的影響，部分被穩健的迷你遊戲和音樂訂閱量所抵消。社交網絡和增值服務在線遊戲收入預計將分別同比下降-2％和-4％，至304億元人民幣和466億元人民幣。彈性在線廣告將同比增長18％，達到247億元人民幣，主要受益於視頻賬戶、小程序、移動廣告網絡和騰訊娛樂廣告。金融科技和商業服務收入將同比增長12％，達到547億元人民幣。GPM爲49.7％，符合街道對3個路段內持續結構結構結構調整和成本效率提高的預期。調整後的淨利潤預計同比增長32％，達到430億元人民幣。NPM 達到 27.3%，也符合共識。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Downside risks: 1) regulations on games, fintech, online ad, streaming, personal data, taxation, etc.; 2) intensified competition for key segments; 3) weaker than expected macro; 4) destructive investments; 5) accelerated share divestment from main shareholder.
下行風險：1）對遊戲、金融科技、在線廣告、流媒體、個人數據、稅收等的監管；2）關鍵細分市場的競爭加劇；3）宏觀低於預期；4）破壞性投資；5）加速從主要股東手中撤資。
Valuation
估價
Maintain BUY and our SOTP TP of HK$407.0 based on our updated estimations with corresponding 2024E multiples assigned to each segments (15.0x PER for online game, 16.0x PER for online ad, 15.0x PER for fintech & BS, 5x PSR for cloud) and updated subsidiaries and investments' valuation.
根據我們最新的估計，維持買入和407.0港元的止盈目標，爲每個細分市場分配了相應的2024E倍數（在線遊戲的市盈率爲15.0倍，在線廣告的每股收益率爲16.0倍，金融科技和商業銀行的每股收益率爲15.0倍，雲端的每股收益率爲5倍），以及最新的子公司和投資估值。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。