Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (NYSE:GNTY) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 2.2% to hit US$29m. Guaranty Bancshares reported statutory earnings per share (EPS) US$0.58, which was a notable 15% above what the analysts had forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Guaranty Bancshares

Taking into account the latest results, the four analysts covering Guaranty Bancshares provided consensus estimates of US$115.9m revenue in 2024, which would reflect a discernible 2.2% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to fall 10% to US$2.21 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$116.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.19 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

With no major changes to earnings forecasts, the consensus price target fell 6.7% to US$32.67, suggesting that the analysts might have previously been hoping for an earnings upgrade. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Guaranty Bancshares analyst has a price target of US$34.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$30.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Guaranty Bancshares' past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 3.0% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 7.9% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.2% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Guaranty Bancshares is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Guaranty Bancshares' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Guaranty Bancshares' future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Guaranty Bancshares. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Guaranty Bancshares going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Guaranty Bancshares (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.