What McEwen Mining Inc.'s (NYSE:MUX) 28% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You
What McEwen Mining Inc.'s (NYSE:MUX) 28% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You
McEwen Mining Inc. (NYSE:MUX) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 28% gain in the last month alone. Looking further back, the 20% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.
Following the firm bounce in price, when almost half of the companies in the United States' Metals and Mining industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 1.3x, you may consider McEwen Mining as a stock probably not worth researching with its 3.3x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
How McEwen Mining Has Been Performing
McEwen Mining certainly has been doing a good job lately as its revenue growth has been positive while most other companies have been seeing their revenue go backwards. It seems that many are expecting the company to continue defying the broader industry adversity, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on McEwen Mining.What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?
In order to justify its P/S ratio, McEwen Mining would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the industry.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew revenue by an impressive 51% last year. Pleasingly, revenue has also lifted 59% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been superb for the company.
Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to slump, contracting by 2.2% during the coming year according to the three analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the broader industry is forecast to expand by 8.2%, which paints a poor picture.
In light of this, it's alarming that McEwen Mining's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company reject the analyst cohort's pessimism and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the negative growth outlook.
What Does McEwen Mining's P/S Mean For Investors?
The large bounce in McEwen Mining's shares has lifted the company's P/S handsomely. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
For a company with revenues that are set to decline in the context of a growing industry, McEwen Mining's P/S is much higher than we would've anticipated. In cases like this where we see revenue decline on the horizon, we suspect the share price is at risk of following suit, bringing back the high P/S into the realms of suitability. At these price levels, investors should remain cautious, particularly if things don't improve.
You need to take note of risks, for example - McEwen Mining has 3 warning signs (and 2 which make us uncomfortable) we think you should know about.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
麥克尤恩礦業公司(紐約證券交易所代碼:MUX)的股價延續了最近的勢頭,僅在上個月就上漲了28%。再往前看,儘管在過去的30天中表現強勁,但過去十二個月的20%漲幅還不錯。
在公司價格反彈之後,當美國金屬和採礦業中將近一半的公司的市銷率(或 “市銷率”)低於1.3倍時,你可以將McEwen Mining視爲一隻可能不值得研究的股票,其市銷率爲3.3倍。但是,市銷率之高可能是有原因的,需要進一步調查以確定其是否合理。
McEwen Mining 的表現如何
McEwen Mining最近確實做得很好,因爲其收入增長是正的,而大多數其他公司的收入卻在倒退。看來許多人預計該公司將繼續克服更廣泛的行業逆境,這增加了投資者購買股票的意願。你真的希望如此,否則你會無緣無故地付出相當大的代價。
如果你想了解分析師對未來的預測,你應該查看我們關於McEwen Mining的免費報告。收入增長指標告訴我們高市銷率有哪些?
爲了證明其市銷率是合理的,McEwen Mining需要實現超過該行業的驚人增長。
首先回顧一下,我們發現該公司去年的收入增長了令人印象深刻的51%。令人高興的是,得益於過去12個月的增長,總收入也比三年前增長了59%。因此,可以公平地說,該公司最近的收入增長非常好。
展望未來,預計收入將下降,根據關注該公司的三位分析師的說法,來年收入將萎縮2.2%。同時,整個行業預計將增長8.2%,這描繪了一幅糟糕的景象。
有鑑於此,令人震驚的是,麥克尤恩礦業的市銷率高於其他多數公司。顯然,該公司的許多投資者拒絕了分析師群體的悲觀情緒,也不願意不惜任何代價放售股票。如果市銷率降至更符合負增長前景的水平,這些股東很有可能爲未來的失望做好準備。
麥克尤恩礦業的市銷率對投資者意味着什麼?
麥克尤恩礦業股價的大幅反彈大大提高了該公司的市銷率。僅使用市銷率來確定是否應該出售股票是不明智的,但它可以作爲公司未來前景的實用指南。
對於一家在行業增長背景下收入將下降的公司來說,McEwen Mining的市銷率遠高於我們的預期。在這樣的情況下,我們看到收入即將下降,我們懷疑股價有可能緊隨其後,將高市銷售率帶回適宜性領域。在這些價格水平下,投資者應保持謹慎,尤其是在情況沒有改善的情況下。
例如,你需要注意風險——McEwen Mining有3個警告信號(還有2個讓我們感到不舒服),我們認爲你應該知道。
重要的是要確保你尋找一家優秀的公司,而不僅僅是你遇到的第一個想法。因此,如果盈利能力的增長與你對一家優秀公司的想法一致,那就來看看這份免費名單吧,列出了最近收益增長強勁(市盈率低)的有趣公司。
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
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