The Total Return for Comfort Systems USA (NYSE:FIX) Investors Has Risen Faster Than Earnings Growth Over the Last Five Years
The Total Return for Comfort Systems USA (NYSE:FIX) Investors Has Risen Faster Than Earnings Growth Over the Last Five Years
For many, the main point of investing in the stock market is to achieve spectacular returns. And we've seen some truly amazing gains over the years. For example, the Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (NYSE:FIX) share price is up a whopping 434% in the last half decade, a handsome return for long term holders. And this is just one example of the epic gains achieved by some long term investors. Also pleasing for shareholders was the 50% gain in the last three months.
In light of the stock dropping 5.6% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Over half a decade, Comfort Systems USA managed to grow its earnings per share at 25% a year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 40% per year, over the same period. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. And that's hardly shocking given the track record of growth.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Comfort Systems USA's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Comfort Systems USA's TSR for the last 5 years was 452%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that Comfort Systems USA shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 131% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 41% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Comfort Systems USA has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
Comfort Systems USA is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對於許多人來說,投資股票市場的要點是獲得可觀的回報。這些年來,我們已經看到了一些非常驚人的成果。例如,美國舒適系統公司(紐約證券交易所代碼:FIX)的股價在過去五年中上漲了434%,對於長揸者來說,這是一個可觀的回報。這只是一些長期投資者取得巨大收益的一個例子。同樣令股東高興的是過去三個月的50%的漲幅。
鑑於該股在過去一週下跌了5.6%,我們想調查長期情況,看看基本面是否是該公司五年正回報率的驅動力。
儘管一些人繼續教導高效市場假說,但事實證明,市場是反應過度的動態系統,投資者並不總是理性的。研究市場情緒如何隨着時間的推移而變化的一種方法是研究公司股價與其每股收益(EPS)之間的相互作用。
在過去的五年中,Comfort Systems USA設法將其每股收益增長到每年25%。每股收益的增長低於同期每年40%的股價增長。因此,可以公平地假設市場對該業務的看法比五年前更高。考慮到增長的記錄,這並不令人震驚。
您可以在下圖中看到 EPS 隨時間推移的變化(點擊圖表查看確切值)。
我們認爲,內部人士在去年進行了大量收購,這是積極的。即便如此,未來的收益對於當前股東是否賺錢將更爲重要。查看這張美國Comfort Systems收益、收入和現金流的交互式圖表,更深入地了解收益。
分紅呢?
在考慮投資回報時,重要的是要考慮兩者之間的區別 股東總回報 (TSR) 和 股價回報。基於股息再投資的假設,股東總回報率納入了任何分拆或貼現資本籌集的價值以及任何股息。因此,對於支付豐厚股息的公司來說,股東總回報率通常遠高於股價回報率。碰巧的是,美國舒適系統公司過去5年的股東總回報率爲452%,超過了前面提到的股價回報率。這在很大程度上是其股息支付的結果!
不同的視角
很高興看到Comfort Systems USA的股東在過去一年中獲得了131%的總股東回報率。當然,這包括股息。這比五年來41%的年化回報率要好,這意味着該公司最近的表現更好。在最好的情況下,這可能暗示着一些真正的業務勢頭,這意味着現在可能是深入研究的好時機。儘管市場狀況可能對股價產生的不同影響值得考慮,但還有其他因素更爲重要。例如,冒險吧——美國舒適系統公司有 1 個我們認爲你應該注意的警告標誌。
美國舒適系統並不是內部人士唯一買入的股票。因此,看看這份免費的內幕收購成長型公司名單。
請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在美國交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。
對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
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