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Is Alight (NYSE:ALIT) A Risky Investment?

Is Alight (NYSE:ALIT) A Risky Investment?

Alight(纽约证券交易所代码:ALIT)是一项风险投资吗?
Simply Wall St ·  04/16 18:28

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Alight, Inc. (NYSE:ALIT) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

沃伦·巴菲特曾说过一句名言:“波动性远非风险的代名词。”当我们考虑一家公司的风险时,我们总是喜欢考虑其债务的用途,因为债务过载可能导致破产。我们注意到,Alight, Inc.(纽约证券交易所代码:ALIT)的资产负债表上确实有债务。但是这笔债务是股东关心的问题吗?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

债务会带来什么风险?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

一般而言,只有当公司无法通过筹集资金或使用自己的现金流轻松还清债务时,债务才会成为真正的问题。归根结底,如果公司无法履行偿还债务的法律义务,股东可能会一无所有地离开。尽管这种情况并不常见,但我们经常看到负债公司永久稀释股东,因为贷款人迫使他们以不良价格筹集资金。当然,许多公司使用债务为增长提供资金,而不会产生任何负面后果。在考虑企业使用多少债务时,要做的第一件事是将现金和债务放在一起考虑。

What Is Alight's Net Debt?

什么是 Alight 的净负债?

The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Alight had US$2.79b in debt in December 2023; about the same as the year before. On the flip side, it has US$358.0m in cash leading to net debt of about US$2.44b.

您可以点击下图以获取更多详细信息,该图表显示,2023年12月,Alight的债务为27.9亿美元;与前一年大致相同。另一方面,它拥有3.58亿美元的现金,净负债约为24.4亿美元。

debt-equity-history-analysis
NYSE:ALIT Debt to Equity History April 16th 2024
纽约证券交易所:ALIT 债务与股本的比率历史记录 2024 年 4 月 16 日

How Strong Is Alight's Balance Sheet?

Alight 的资产负债表有多强?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Alight had liabilities of US$2.19b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$3.85b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$358.0m as well as receivables valued at US$805.0m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$4.88b.

根据上次报告的资产负债表,Alight的负债为21.9亿美元,12个月后到期的负债为38.5亿美元。除这些债务外,它有3.58亿美元的现金以及价值8.05亿美元的应收账款在12个月内到期。因此,其负债超过其现金和(短期)应收账款总额48.8亿美元。

This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of US$5.32b. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.

相对于其53.2亿美元的市值,这是一座巨大的杠杆率。这表明,如果公司需要迅速支撑资产负债表,股东将被严重稀释。

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

我们使用两个主要比率来告知我们相对于收益的债务水平。第一个是净负债除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前的收益(EBITDA),第二个是其利息和税前收益(EBIT)覆盖其利息支出(或简称利息保障)的多少倍。因此,我们将债务与收益的关系考虑在内,包括和不包括折旧和摊销费用。

Weak interest cover of 0.36 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.2 hit our confidence in Alight like a one-two punch to the gut. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. However, the silver lining was that Alight achieved a positive EBIT of US$47m in the last twelve months, an improvement on the prior year's loss. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Alight can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

0.36倍的薄弱利息覆盖率和令人不安的高净负债与息税折旧摊销前利润的比率5.2打击了我们对Alight的信心,就像是一二的冲击。这意味着我们会认为它有沉重的债务负担。但是,一线希望是,Alight在过去十二个月中实现了4700万美元的正息税前利润,比去年的亏损有所改善。资产负债表显然是分析债务时需要关注的领域。但最终,该业务未来的盈利能力将决定Alight能否随着时间的推移加强其资产负债表。因此,如果你想看看专业人士的想法,你可能会发现这份关于分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it is important to check how much of its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) converts to actual free cash flow. Over the last year, Alight actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. There's nothing better than incoming cash when it comes to staying in your lenders' good graces.

最后,尽管税务人员可能喜欢会计利润,但贷款人只接受冷硬现金。因此,重要的是要检查其利息和税前收益(EBIT)中有多少转换为实际自由现金流。去年,Alight产生的自由现金流实际上超过了息税前利润。在保持贷款人的支持方面,没有什么比流入的现金更好的了。

Our View

我们的观点

Neither Alight's ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT nor its net debt to EBITDA gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But the good news is it seems to be able to convert EBIT to free cash flow with ease. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think Alight's debt poses some risks to the business. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn't really want to see it increase from here. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Alight that you should be aware of.

无论是Alight用息税前利润支付利息支出的能力,还是其净负债占息税折旧摊销前利润的比例,都使我们对它承担更多债务的能力充满信心。但好消息是,它似乎能够轻松地将息税前利润转换为自由现金流。综合上述因素,我们确实认为Alight的债务对业务构成了一些风险。因此,尽管这种杠杆率确实提高了股本回报率,但我们真的不希望看到它从现在开始增加。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到的关于债务的知识最多。但是,并非所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表中,远非如此。例如,我们已经确定了 Alight 的 1 个警告标志,你应该注意这一点。

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

如果你有兴趣投资能够在没有债务负担的情况下增加利润的企业,请查看这份资产负债表上有净现金的成长型企业的免费清单。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。

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