Core views:
Meiya Optoelectronics: leading company in optoelectronic recognition technology, with excellent profitability. The company's products, from color sorters to dental CBCT, have all become domestic leaders. After becoming a leader in the domestic color sorter field, the company entered overseas markets and became the world's leading color sorter company. Based on the underlying optical recognition technology, the company's product matrix has expanded to the field of high-end medical imaging. Dental CBCT is growing rapidly, leading the industry, and is now gradually expanding into overseas markets. According to the company's financial report, the gross margin has remained above 50% for a long time, the net interest rate is basically above 30% for a long time, and the profitability is excellent.
The competitive landscape of dental CBCT is stable, and downstream demand has entered a steady recovery period. Affected by the uncertainty of the epidemic, dental CBCT application demand and dental care demand have been suppressed, leading to phased fluctuations in the dental industry and a decline in demand from CBCT purchasers. Currently, the domestic CBCT competition pattern is gradually stabilizing, external influences are being eliminated, and the market needs to recultivate dental care consumption habits. Therefore, the industry is in a slow recovery stage, and the company's CBCT revenue growth rate is expected to rise in 24-25.
Continue to launch high-end medical device products to find new growth drivers. The company used spinal navigation systems as a starting point to enter the field of high-end medical devices and launched mobile head CT products in '24. (1) Spinal navigation systems: As the number of orthopedic surgeries increases, orthopedic surgery robots and navigation systems are expected to enter a period of rapid growth in 24-27, and the penetration rate is expected to accelerate. According to the company's official website, the company's spinal surgery robot has many application cases. (2) Mobile head CT: According to Meiya Optoelectronics's official account, the company's mobile head CT was approved for listing in '24. Mobile head CT is currently a cutting-edge medical device. It is estimated that the first batch of purchase demand mainly comes from ICUs in the top three hospitals. We expect an additional market space of 9/16 billion yuan in 24-25.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. We expect net profit to be 882/1,055/ 1,208 million yuan for 24-26, respectively. Referring to comparable companies, the company was given a 24-year PE valuation, corresponding to a reasonable value of 25.0 yuan/share, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning. Competition in overseas markets intensified, downstream market recovery fell short of expectations, and promotion of new products fell short of anticipated risks.