Jetsons-like travel in air taxis is 'as close as we've seen,' Joby's chief product officer says

Getting from downtown Manhattan to JFK Airport in under seven minutes for the same price as an Uber (UBER) is easy — as long as you fly above traffic.

It sounds like something from the Jetsons, but according to air taxi companies like Joby Aviation (JOBY), it could be a reality by next year. With $400 million in backing from Toyota (TM) and $60 million from Delta (DAL), Joby is hoping to win the race to get air taxis — more formally referred to as electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles (eVTOLs) — to market.

EVTOLs are not simply a new type of chopper. They are 100% electric, just like an electric vehicle or a drone, and are designed to hold multiple passengers and luggage.

“This is as close as we've seen, I think, in terms of the technology coming together to make something that you could use on a daily basis,” said Eric Allison, Joby’s chief product officer.

But first, air taxis need regulatory approval.

A representative from the Federal Aviation Administration told Yahoo Finance while 2025 could be a launch year for flight, 2028 is a more realistic date for a competitive, scaled air taxi market in at least one location.

That certification is the No. 1 thing to watch for retail investors interested in this space, according to Wall Street research firm Jefferies.

“We don't know when certification for FAA will happen for any aircraft,” Jefferies’ aerospace, defense, and airlines analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu said.

The technology

Joby hopes the technology powering their aircraft helps with the regulatory process. The FAA's certification requirements include meeting certain safety criteria and flying under a variety of conditions.

The fully electric Joby aircraft has built in a number of safety measures, including six motors and four batteries, which were developed by a team of ex-Tesla employees.

“We can lose a battery, and we still fly perfectly fine,” said Peter Wilson, Joby’s flight standards and training lead.

Keeping battery charging times down is also critical so that eVTOLs can make as many trips with as many ticketed passengers as possible.

Joby’s eVTOL can travel up to 100 miles on a single charge, meaning it can do two trips back and forth to JFK from a downtown New York City heliport before needing a recharge.

Joby expects to be able to recharge its eVTOLs in the amount of time it takes to deplane and board passengers. According to one report, eVTOL batteries would ideally charge in under 10 minutes, about as fast as Tesla’s latest superchargers can charge an EV.

The market

With the air taxi market projected to grow to $65 billion by 2028, according to the Business Research Company, Joby isn’t the only air taxi manufacturer looking to launch commercial flights as soon as possible.

Archer Aviation (ACHR) and Lilium (LILM) are among Joby’s competitors. Both firms have seen double-digit gains in their stock prices over the past year.

Archer has a $1 billion conditional order from United Airlines (UAL) and raked in $150 million in development cash from Stellantis (STLA) and well-known investors like Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood and serial entrepreneur Marc Lore.

Delta looked at over 20 different companies before landing on Joby as their top pick, according to Gail Grimmett, Delta’s senior vice president of Sustainability Performance and Strategic Partnerships.

“The technological strength that Joby had, the financial strength that they had as a startup, … we felt that that made a great match for us to be able to collaborate,” Grimmett said.

Analyst Kahyaoglu added that investors should consider regulation, infrastructure, and consumer interest when sussing out their own eVTOL allocation.

“We want to be supportive of innovation, [and] we want to be supportive of technology, but we also want to be cognizant of the current regulatory environment,” she said.

FAA approval is the first step. After that, eVTOL companies need to scale in order to keep the cost of rides as low as possible to attract customers.

Joby believes their initial rides will launch at "Uber Black" pricing and will go down to regular Uber pricing over time.

According to Uber, the average price of a trip from Manhattan to JFK is $135 for an Uber Black and $87 for a regular Uber. Jefferies estimates that at launch, a Joby ride could cost around $200.

Joby detailed these headwinds and more in a recent regulatory filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company noted they have enough cash on hand to support the initial launch of commercial operations in 2025, but after that, if they are not generating sufficient cash flow, will use “a combination of equity and debt financing” to fund the business.

Still, the technological advancements discovered while creating these aircraft could be used to fuel future innovation, according to Allison.

“We’re building all of these capabilities, all of these muscles as a company, not just to build one revolutionary airplane but to build the future of zero-emission aviation,” Allison said.

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