How Does The Stock Market Perform Ahead Of Tax Day? 'Rough' At First, Data Shows
How Does The Stock Market Perform Ahead Of Tax Day? 'Rough' At First, Data Shows
There are tons of interesting tidbits about Tax Day.
關於納稅日，有很多有趣的花絮。
According to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS):
根據美國國稅局（IRS）的說法：
- Officers answered more than one million taxpayer phone calls this season.
- They processed over 100 million individual tax returns through April 6.
- Tens of millions more filings will be made on the April 15 deadline.
- About 19 million taxpayers will file extensions due Oct. 15.
- More than $200 billion in refunds were already delivered.
- The average refund was $3,011 — a 4.6% increase from last April's average of $2,878.
- 官員們本季接聽了超過一百萬個納稅人的電話。
- 截至4月6日，他們處理了超過1億份個人納稅申報表。
- 在4月15日的最後期限之前，還將提交數千萬份申請。
- 大約1900萬納稅人將申請10月15日到期的延期。
- 已經交付了超過2000億美元的退款。
- 平均退款額爲3,011美元，較去年4月的平均退款2878美元增長了4.6％。
These numbers change yearly, but there's at least one fairly consistent Tax-Day trend: a jittery stock market.
這些數字每年都在變化，但至少有一個相當穩定的納稅日趨勢：股市動盪不安。
According to Bankrate, citing data from S&P Global's Kensho unit, the first couple weeks of April are typically "rougher."
Bankrate援引標普全球Kensho部門的數據稱，4月的前幾周通常 “更加艱難”。
Many taxpayers will liquidate stocks or tap their money market funds to fulfill immediate cash requirements.
許多納稅人會清算股票或利用其貨幣市場資金來滿足即時的現金需求。
And from 2000 to 2016, the S&P 500 Index declined an average 0.2% during the first two weeks before Tax Day.
從2000年到2016年，標準普爾500指數在納稅日前的前兩週平均下跌了0.2％。
After Tax Day, it's a different scenario. The S&P 500 usually bounces back to finish April about 1.7% higher on average (climbing "an astonishing" 75% of the time, Bankrate notes).
納稅日之後，情況就不一樣了。標準普爾500指數通常會在4月底反彈，平均上漲約1.7％（Bankrate指出，有75％的漲幅是 “驚人的”）。
Per Money.com, the S&P 500 index enjoyed an average gain of 0.83% in the week following the tax deadline from 1998 to 2022 (for 19 out of 25 years). The one-week median gain throughout the year is 0.31%.
根據Money.com的數據，標準普爾500指數在1998年至2022年納稅截止日期後的一週（25年中的19年）平均上漲0.83％。全年一週的漲幅中位數爲0.31％。
In April, the market's overall impact is minimal. Investors would be wise to stick to their long-term investment strategy and prioritize contributing to tax-advantaged retirement accounts (i.e., 401k plans and IRAs).
4月，市場的整體影響微乎其微。投資者明智的做法是堅持長期投資策略，優先向稅收優惠的退休賬戶（即401k計劃和IRA賬戶）繳款。
Historically, the S&P 500 has yielded around 10 percent annual gains. The goal is to stay invested over time rather than attempting to time the market.
從歷史上看，標準普爾500指數的年漲幅約爲10％。目標是隨着時間的推移繼續投資，而不是試圖把握市場時機。
Financial advisors typically suggest that their clients invest in S&P 500 index funds (see below) and remain focused on distant future outcomes rather than short-term fluctuations.
財務顧問通常建議他們的客戶投資標普500指數基金（見下文），並繼續關注遙遠的未來業績，而不是短期波動。
- SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY)
- iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:IVV)
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:VOO)
- iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (NYSE:IVW)
- Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (NYSE:RSP)
- SPDR 標普500指數ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：SPY）
- iShares Core 標準普爾500指數ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：IVV）
- Vanguard 標普500指數ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：VOO）
- iShares 標普500指數成長型ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：IVW）
- 景順標普500指數等權重ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：RSP）
Yardeni Research president Ed Yardeni predicts the S&P 500 could surge 26% by 2026 to 6,500.
亞爾德尼研究總裁埃德·亞爾德尼預測，到2026年，標準普爾500指數可能上漲26％，至6,500點。
"I think this is a long-term bull market," the economist told CNBC in March. "I still got 5,400 by year-end and that was a pretty bold call a year ago, but right now that's looking pretty conservative, and why not more?"
這位經濟學家在三月份告訴CNBC：“我認爲這是一個長期的牛市。”“到年底我還有 5,400 個，一年前那是一個相當大膽的決定，但現在看起來相當保守，爲什麼不更多呢？”
Now Read: Retail Sales Rises More Than Expected In March, Indicate Strong Consumer Spending
立即閱讀：3月份零售銷售增長超過預期，表明消費者支出強勁
Image: Shutterstock
圖片：Shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。