TENCENT(700.HK):EXPECT SOLID EARNINGS GROWTH AND ENHANCING SHAREHOLDER RETURN IN FY24
TENCENT(700.HK):EXPECT SOLID EARNINGS GROWTH AND ENHANCING SHAREHOLDER RETURN IN FY24
Tencent remains on track of margins expansion, underpinned by increased revenue contribution from high-margin businesses and operating leverage. The company is also committed to enhancing shareholder return, with daily share repurchase amount reaching HK$1bn (c.13% of average daily turnover) since 4Q23 earning release in March. For 1Q24E, we forecast total revenue to increase by 6% YoY to RMB158.6bn, while non-IFRS net income to grow by 31% YoY to RMB43.1bn, primarily driven by the solid GPM expansion (+c.3ppt YoY). We slightly lower our FY24-26 total revenue forecast by 1-2%, mainly to factor in the relatively soft gaming business. We fine-tune our SOTP-derived target price to HK$445.0 (previous: HK$450.5). Maintain BUY.
騰訊仍步入利潤擴張的軌道，這得益於高利潤業務收入貢獻和運營槓桿率的增加。該公司還致力於提高股東回報率，自3月份發佈23年第四季度業績以來，每日股票回購金額達到10億港元（約佔平均每日營業額的13％）。對於 1Q24E，我們預計總收入將同比增長6％，達到1586億元人民幣，而非國際財務報告準則淨收入將同比增長31％，達到431億元人民幣，這主要是受GPM穩步擴張（同比增長約3ppt）的推動。我們將我們的 FY24-26 總收入預測略微下調了1-2％，這主要是由於遊戲業務相對疲軟。我們將SOTP衍生的目標價微調至445.0港元（先前：450.5港元）。維持買入。
Games business to navigate short-term headwinds. Games business remains under short-term pressure and we forecast its revenue to decline by 2% YoY in 1Q24E, mainly due to: 1) prudent monetization of key titles like Honor of Kings and Peacekeeper Elite compared to the same period last year; 2) soft performance of certain PC titles like DnF on tough comps. Nonetheless, we expect games revenue to recover to positive YoY growth in 2Q24E, driven by the revamp of certain games' monetization and launch of new titles like DnF Mobile in 2Q24. For SNS business, we forecast its revenue to decrease by 2% YoY in 1Q24E, primarily due to adjustment of Huya and TME's live streaming businesses, but partially offset by solid growth of mini-games revenue.
遊戲業務將應對短期的不利因素。遊戲業務仍面臨短期壓力，我們預計，1Q24E 的收入將同比下降2％，這主要是由於：1）與去年同期相比，對《王者榮耀》和《和平精英》等關鍵遊戲進行了謹慎的貨幣化；2）某些電腦遊戲（例如DnF）在艱難的條件下表現疲軟。儘管如此，我們預計，在 2Q24E 中，遊戲收入將恢復到正同比增長，這要歸因於某些遊戲的盈利能力的調整以及 24 年第二季度的 dnF Mobile 等新遊戲的推出。對於SNS業務，我們預計其在 1Q24E 中的收入將同比下降2％，這主要是由於Huya和TME直播業務的調整，但部分被迷你遊戲收入的穩步增長所抵消。
Driving quality growth of ads/FBS businesses. We forecast advertising revenue to grow by 16% YoY in 1Q24E, driven by strong demand for Video Account (VA) ads and improved ad tech. We expect ad GPM to expand by c.7ppts YoY due to the enhanced monetization of high-margin Weixin ad properties like VA and Moment ads. For FBS business, we also expect continued high-quality growth, with revenue and GPM up by 14% YoY and 6ppt YoY respectively in 1Q24E, mainly supported by incremental revenue from high-margin VA e-commerce, wealth management and consumer loan businesses.
推動廣告/FBS業務的質量增長。我們預測，在對視頻賬戶（VA）廣告的強勁需求和廣告技術的改善的推動下，1Q24E 的廣告收入將同比增長16％。我們預計，由於VA和Moment廣告等高利潤微信廣告資產的盈利能力得到提高，廣告GPM將同比增長約7個百分點。對於FBS業務，我們還預計將繼續實現高質量增長，1Q24E 的收入和GPM分別同比增長14％和6個百分點，這主要是由高利潤的弗吉尼亞州電子商務、财富管理和消費貸款業務的增量收入支撐。
Maintain BUY. We are positive on Tencent's earnings growth in 1Q24/2024E (+31/18% YoY). In addition, the increase in shareholder return (FY24E share repurchases + cash dividends equivalent to ~5% of current market cap) should further support Tencent's valuation. We see Tencent's current valuation of 15x FY24E PE (12x FY24E PE excl. strategic investment value) remains attractive. Key catalysts: 1) launch of DnF Mobile in 2Q24 supporting games business recovery; 2) better-than-expected expansion of ad/FBS GPM; 3) increasing shareholder return.
維持買入。我們對騰訊在2024年第一季度的收益增長持樂觀態度（同比增長31/ 18％）。此外，股東回報率的增加（FY24E 股票回購+相當於當前市值約5％的現金分紅）應進一步支持騰訊的估值。我們認爲，騰訊目前15倍 FY24E 市盈率（不包括戰略投資價值的12倍 FY24E 市盈率）的估值仍然具有吸引力。主要催化劑：1) 於24年第二季度推出DnF Mobile，支持遊戲業務復甦；2) 廣告/FBS GPM的擴張好於預期；3) 增加股東回報。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。