The growth of personal loans continues to accelerate. The balance of personal loans and advances at the end of '23 increased 29.6% year-on-year compared to '22, exceeding the year-on-year growth rate of 23Q3 (26.9%). The share of individual loans increased by 3.1 pct to 40.5% compared to '22. The increase in 23H2 personal loans was mainly due to consumer loans, with a year-on-year increase of 32%. The Bank of Ningbo's loan structure is skewed towards individual loans, with a moderate allocation of bond investments. The yield on interest-bearing assets for the full year of '23 was 4.16%, which is basically the same as 23H1.
Wealth management is getting bigger and stronger, and retail AUM is close to trillion dollars. The company continued to optimize product systems, customer management, team building, etc. At the end of '23, the company's retail AUM reached 987 billion yuan, an increase of 22.5% over the previous year.
The number of credit cards issued is growing rapidly. The number of corporate credit cards issued in '23 increased 21% compared to the end of '22. Affected by the capital market, the overall revenue was under pressure, yet the median revenue obtained by the bank card business increased 63% year over year.
The non-performing rate was stable, and the share of overdue and concerned loans increased. The share of concerned loans increased by 11 bps to 0.65% compared to 23Q3, and the share of overdue loans increased by 8 bps to 0.93% compared to 23Q2, mainly due to the increase in the share of loans overdue within 3 months.
Investment advice. We forecast EPS to be 4.16, 4.52, and 5.04 yuan in 2024-2026, with net profit growth rates of 10.56%, 8.47%, and 11.09%. We obtained a reasonable value of 24.02 yuan based on the DDM model (see Table 2); according to the comparable valuation method, the 2024E PB valuation was 0.80 times (0.57 times the comparable company), and the corresponding reasonable value was 25.88 yuan. Therefore, the reasonable value range is 24.02-25.88 yuan (corresponding to 2024 PE is 5.77-6.22 times, corresponding PE is 4.04 times for peer companies), maintaining the “superior to market” rating.
Risk warning: The solvency of enterprises has declined, asset quality has deteriorated dramatically; financial supervision policies have undergone major changes.