Banking Sector Faces Caution Amid Absence of Catalysts
Banking Sector Faces Caution Amid Absence of Catalysts
HONG Leong Investment Bank Bhd (HLIB Research) is adopting a cautious perspective when analysing the local banking sector, as no immediate catalysts are foreseen to drive significant growth.
豐隆投资银行有限公司（HLIB Research）在分析当地银行业时采取了谨慎的观点，因为预计不会有直接的催化剂来推动显著增长。
"All in all, the risk-reward now is balanced as there are no fresh positive catalysts to spur share prices significantly higher," the research house analyst Chan Jit Hoong said in his report recently.
研究机构分析师Chan Jit Hoong在最近的报告中表示：“总而言之，由于没有新的积极催化剂可以刺激股价大幅上涨，现在的风险回报是平衡的。”
Hence, Chan suggests a 'Neutral' stance on the banking sector, maintaining current positions with a discerning eye on market dynamics and performance indicators.
因此，陈建议对银行业采取 “中立” 立场，以敏锐的眼光看待市场动态和业绩指标，维持目前的立场。
Missing Catalysts
缺少催化剂
In his analysis, Chan observed a more balanced risk-reward scenario within the banking sector, largely due to the absence of new positive catalysts capable of significantly boosting share prices of banking stocks.
陈在分析中观察到银行业内部的风险回报情景更加平衡，这主要是由于缺乏能够显著提振银行股价格的新积极催化剂。
Additionally, his projections indicate a slower growth trajectory for sector profits in fiscal years 2024 and 2025, with expected rates of 6% and 4% respectively, compared to the robust 15% growth experienced in fiscal year 2023.
此外，他的预测表明，2024和2025财年的行业利润增长轨迹将放缓，预期增长率分别为6％和4％，而2023财年的强劲增长率为15％。
This slower growth, he noted, lags behind the broader market performance, with the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) anticipated to rise at a quicker pace of 7% in fiscal year 2024.
他指出，这种增长放缓落后于整体市场表现，富时马来西亚证券交易所KLCI（FBM KLCI）预计将在2024财年以7％的更快速度上涨。
Chan said several factors contribute to this subdued outlook, including the inability of the net interest margin (NIM) to recover meaningfully, anticipated deceleration in net operating income (NOI) growth and the absence of non-credit costs (NCC) write-backs.
陈说，有几个因素导致了这种疲软的前景，包括净利率（NIM）无法有意义地恢复，净营业收入（NOI）增长的预期减速以及没有非信贷成本（NCC）回扣。
Despite these challenges, he said, valuations within the sector are not deemed excessive, prompting a cautious stance rather than a full-on bearish outlook.
他说，尽管存在这些挑战，但该行业内部的估值并不被认为过高，这促使人们采取谨慎的立场，而不是全面的看跌前景。
Within its coverage, HLIB Research has assigned a single large-cap 'Buy' rating to Public Bank Bhd with a target price of RM4.80 owing to its defensive qualities and multi-year low foreign shareholding.
在其报道范围内，由于其防御性质和多年来外国持股量较低，HLIB Research已将大盘股 “买入” 评级定为单一的大盘股 “买入” 评级，目标价为4.80令吉。
Among mid-sized banks, AMMB Holdings Bhd with a target price (TP) of RM4.60 is favoured for its potential dividend payout bandwidth in the near future.
在中型银行中，目标价格（TP）为4.60令吉的AMMB Holdings Bhd因其在不久的将来潜在的股息支付带宽而备受青睐。
Furthermore, HLIB Research finds Alliance Bank Malaysia Bhd with a target price of RM3.95 appealing among small banks due to its inexpensive valuations.
此外，HLIB Research发现，由于估值低廉，目标价为3.95令吉的马来西亚联盟银行有限公司在小型银行中颇具吸引力。
Leading Indicators Turned Weak
领先指标变弱
According to Chan, the banking sector statistics for February 2024 highlighted a steady but tempered growth trajectory in system loans, maintaining a positive year-onyear (YoY) increase of 5.8%.
根据陈的说法，2024年2月银行业的统计数据突显了系统贷款的稳定但缓和的增长轨迹，同比（YoY）保持了5.8％的正增长。
Notably, both household and business segments contributed to this growth, with resilient performances observed across various sub-segments.
值得注意的是，家庭和商业板块都为这种增长做出了贡献，各个子细分市场的表现都表现强劲。
However, Chan noted the pace of deposit growth slowed to 4% YoY, signalling a potential shift in market dynamics.
但是，陈指出，存款增长速度同比放缓至4％，这表明市场动态可能发生变化。
Chan noted that leading indicators have weakened, as evidenced by a decline in loan applications by 11.3% YoY compared to an increase of 39.9% in January, and a drop of 16.8% YoY in loan approvals compared to an increase of 46.1% in January.
陈指出，领先指标有所减弱，贷款申请较1月份增长39.9％同比下降11.3％，贷款批准同比下降16.8％，比1月份的46.1％增长46.1％就证明了这一点。
Specifically, he noted that both household (HH) and business (Biz) segments experienced decreases in loan applications, with HH decreasing by 14.8% compared to an increase of 36.5% in January and Biz by 6.2% compared to an increase of 45.3% in January.
具体而言，他指出，家庭（HH）和商业（商业）板块的贷款申请都出现了下降，HH与1月份的36.5％相比下降了14.8％，商业与1月份的增长45.3％相比下降了6.2％。
In terms of loan approvals, he said demand for credit diminished, with HH decreasing by 10.4% compared to an increase of 36.1% in January and Biz contracting by 23.4% compared to an increase of 58.6% in January.
在贷款批准方面，他表示，信贷需求有所减少，HH下降了10.4％，而1月份增长了36.1％，商业收缩了23.4％，而1月份的增长率为58.6％。
Meanwhile, deposit growth moderated to 4% YoY in February 2024, down from 5.2% in January, primarily due to slower growth in foreign currency and 'other' deposits.
同时，存款同比增长从1月份的5.2％放缓至2024年2月的4％，这主要是由于外币和 “其他” 存款增长放缓。
Despite this, the loan-to-deposit ratio for February 2024 remained steady month-on-month (MoM) at 86%, compared to its peak of 89% in February 2018.
尽管如此，2024年2月的贷款存款比率仍保持稳定，为86％，而2018年2月的峰值为89％。
The competition for fixed deposits (FD) continues to be fairly rational within the market.
市场内对定期存款（FD）的竞争仍然相当合理。
Net Interest Margin Stability
净利率稳定性
Despite fluctuations in loan and deposit metrics, Chan said the net interest margin (NIM) is expected to exhibit stability in the first quarter of 2024 (1Q24).
尽管贷款和存款指标波动，但陈表示，净利率（NIM）预计将在2024年第一季度（24年第一季度）表现出稳定。
This projection hinges on the exit of fixed deposits from a traditionally competitive quarter, suggesting a degree of equilibrium in interest rate dynamics.
这一预测取决于定期存款退出传统竞争激烈的季度，这表明利率动态存在一定程度的平衡。
Meanwhile, asset quality in the sector remained stable, with February 2024's gross impaired loans (GIL) ratio holding steady MoM at 1.64%.
同时，该行业的资产质量保持稳定，2024年2月的总减值贷款（GIL）比率环比稳定在1.64％。
Although there was a slight decrease of 2 basis points (bps) in the Biz segment, the HH segment experienced a marginal increase of 2bps.
尽管商业板块略有下降2个基点（基点），但HH板块略有增长2个基点。
Looking ahead, Chan said there is minimal concern regarding potential deterioration in asset quality.
展望未来，陈说，对资产质量可能恶化的担忧微乎其微。
His confidence stems from the belief that banks are better equipped to handle adverse scenarios compared to previous downturns.
他的信心源于这样的信念，即与之前的衰退相比，银行更有能力应对不利情景。
He noted that the substantial loan loss allowances accumulated over the past four years serve as a robust buffer, capable of cushioning any potential spike in the GIL ratio.
他指出，过去四年中积累的巨额贷款损失准备金是一个强大的缓冲区，能够缓冲GIL比率的任何潜在飙升。
译文内容由第三方软件翻译。