Benign Growth For FibroGen, Inc. (NASDAQ:FGEN) Underpins Stock's 28% Plummet
Benign Growth For FibroGen, Inc. (NASDAQ:FGEN) Underpins Stock's 28% Plummet
The FibroGen, Inc. (NASDAQ:FGEN) share price has softened a substantial 28% over the previous 30 days, handing back much of the gains the stock has made lately. For any long-term shareholders, the last month ends a year to forget by locking in a 93% share price decline.
After such a large drop in price, FibroGen's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.9x might make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the wider Biotechs industry in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/S ratios above 13.7x and even P/S above 69x are quite common. However, the P/S might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
How FibroGen Has Been Performing
With revenue growth that's inferior to most other companies of late, FibroGen has been relatively sluggish. It seems that many are expecting the uninspiring revenue performance to persist, which has repressed the growth of the P/S ratio. If this is the case, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.
Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on FibroGen will help you uncover what's on the horizon.Do Revenue Forecasts Match The Low P/S Ratio?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as depressed as FibroGen's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the industry decidedly.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 5.0% gain to the company's revenues. Still, lamentably revenue has fallen 16% in aggregate from three years ago, which is disappointing. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the three analysts covering the company suggest revenue should grow by 12% each year over the next three years. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 165% each year growth forecast for the broader industry.
In light of this, it's understandable that FibroGen's P/S sits below the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are expecting to see limited future growth and are only willing to pay a reduced amount for the stock.
The Final Word
FibroGen's P/S looks about as weak as its stock price lately. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
As expected, our analysis of FibroGen's analyst forecasts confirms that the company's underwhelming revenue outlook is a major contributor to its low P/S. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/S as they concede future revenue probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
Plus, you should also learn about these 5 warning signs we've spotted with FibroGen (including 3 which can't be ignored).
If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
FibroGen, Inc.(納斯達克股票代碼:FGEN)的股價在過去30天中大幅下跌了28%,收回了該股最近的大部分漲幅。對於任何長期股東來說,最後一個月的股價下跌幅度爲93%,從而結束了令人難忘的一年。
在價格大幅下跌之後,FibroGen的0.9倍市銷率(或 “市銷率”)與更廣泛的美國生物技術行業相比,目前看起來像是一個強勁的買盤,在美國,大約一半的公司的市銷率高於13.7倍,甚至市盈率高於69倍也很常見。但是,市銷率可能很低是有原因的,需要進一步調查以確定其是否合理。
FibroGen 的表現如何
由於最近的收入增長不及大多數其他公司,FibroGen一直相對疲軟。看來許多人預計平淡無奇的收入表現將持續下去,這抑制了市銷率的增長。如果是這樣的話,那麼現有股東可能很難對股價的未來走向感到興奮。
想全面了解分析師對公司的估計嗎?然後,我們關於FibroGen的免費報告將幫助您發現即將發生的事情。收入預測與低市銷率相匹配嗎?
只有當公司的增長有望明顯落後於該行業時,你才能真正放心地看到像FibroGen一樣低迷的市銷率。
回顧過去,去年的公司收入實現了5.0%的可觀增長。儘管如此,令人遺憾的是,總收入比三年前下降了16%,這令人失望。因此,可以公平地說,最近的收入增長對公司來說是不可取的。
展望未來,報道該公司的三位分析師的估計表明,未來三年收入每年將增長12%。這將大大低於整個行業每年165%的增長預期。
有鑑於此,FibroGen的市銷率低於其他大部分公司是可以理解的。看來大多數投資者預計未來增長有限,只願意爲股票支付較少的金額。
最後一句話
FibroGen最近的市銷率看起來與其股價一樣疲軟。通常,我們傾向於限制使用市銷率來確定市場對公司整體健康狀況的看法。
正如預期的那樣,我們對FibroGen分析師預測的分析證實,該公司令人難以置信的收入前景是其低市銷率的主要原因。目前,股東們正在接受低市銷售率,因爲他們承認未來的收入可能不會帶來任何驚喜。除非這些條件有所改善,否則它們將繼續構成股價在這些水平附近的障礙。
另外,你還應該了解我們在FibroGen中發現的這5個警告信號(包括3個不容忽視的信號)。
如果你喜歡實力雄厚的公司盈利,那麼你會想看看這份以低市盈率(但已證明可以增加收益)的有趣公司的免費名單。
對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
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