Incidents:
On April 9, 2024, Jitu Express released operating data for the first quarter of 2024:
2024Q1, the company completed business volume of 5,032 billion tickets, +48.5% year-on-year, of which Southeast Asia/China/New Market business volume completed 1,026/39.42/064 million votes respectively, +55.3%/+46.1%/+120.3% year-on-year respectively.
Investment highlights:
The 2024Q1 business volume grew at a high year-on-year rate. In terms of the stable volume of single ticket revenue in the Chinese market in 2023, Jitu Express continued to expand its domestic commercial flow, and the 2023H2 achieved a business volume of 8.896 billion tickets, +38.49% over the same period; during the same period, the Southeast Asia/New Market completed business volume of 1,802/147 million tickets, respectively, driven by demand dividends and capacity investment, +38.78%/+255.31% over the same period last year. In 2023, the market share of Jitu Express in Southeast Asia/China/New Markets reached 25.4%/11.6%/6.0%, respectively, and +2.9pcts/+0.7pcts/+4.4pcts, respectively.
2024Q1, Jitu Express's business volume grew at a high year-on-year rate. The company completed 1,026/39.42/064 million tickets in Southeast Asia/China/New Markets respectively, +55.3%/+46.1%/+120.3% year-on-year respectively.
In terms of price, the single ticket revenue of Jitu Express remained stable in the Chinese market in 2023, with a single ticket revenue of 0.34 US dollars, +0.07% year over year; during the same period, the Southeast Asia/New Market single ticket revenue was 0.81/1.42 US dollars, -14.24%/-14.79%, respectively.
Network optimization reduces costs and controls fees, and improves profits. In terms of adjusted EBITDA conversion costs in the domestic segment in 2023, the company continued to reduce costs and increase efficiency in 2023. Unit costs in Southeast Asia/China/New Market were -11.96%/-14.87%/-31.25%, respectively. By the end of 2023, the company was operating 6,100+ mainline vehicles in China, including 3,700 of its own mainline vehicles, an increase of 900+ over the previous year; 3,300 of the Southeast Asian mainline vehicles, an increase of 700 over the previous year, including about 1,300 self-owned mainline vehicles. Subsequently, the three regional divisions were strengthened with large-scale network effects, or there is room for further cost reduction. In terms of expenses, 2H2023's sales, administrative and general expenses accounted for 6.64pcts to 8.08% of revenue year over year.
In terms of profitability, the domestic segment achieved an adjusted EBITDA of US$31 million in 2023, which was corrected; the Southeast Asia segment adjusted EBITDA of US$376 million, +13.3% year over year; and the new market segment adjusted EBITDA of -82 million US dollars.
Looking ahead, under the company's innovative agent model, the two-round growth path of domestic cost reduction and overseas dividends is expected to continue.
Profit forecast and investment rating Based on the newly disclosed 2024Q1 business data, we adjusted the 2024 and 2025 profit forecasts and introduced the 2026 profit forecast. It is estimated that Getu Express's 2024-2026 revenue will be US$11.59 billion, US$14.033 billion and US$16.558 million, respectively, and net profit to mother will be -441 million US dollars, 173 million US dollars, and 342 million US dollars, respectively, corresponding to PS for 2024-2026, 1.03 times, 0.84 times, 0.71 times The company's local express delivery layout not only opened up local market space, but also prepared the first and last stage supply for cross-border business. With the continuous release of cross-border and foreign e-commerce dividends, and the company's deep cooperation with cross-border e-commerce platforms such as SHEIN, the company's business volume may continue to grow rapidly, and profitability is expected to continue to increase, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Risks suggest that industry sentiment falls short of expectations; overseas business growth falls short of expectations; domestic business losses fall short of expectations; overseas policy risks for cross-border e-commerce; price wars restart; regulatory policy changes; franchise network instability; rapid labor cost inflation; continued rise in oil prices; Internet companies are forced to intervene again; risk of large fluctuations in stock prices in the secondary market; differences between the Hong Kong stock valuation system and A-shares.