Q-TECH(1478.HK):1Q24 SHIPMENT REBOUND ON TRACK; AUTO & IOT AS NEXT GROWTH DRIVERS
Q-TECH(1478.HK):1Q24 SHIPMENT REBOUND ON TRACK; AUTO & IOT AS NEXT GROWTH DRIVERS
We recently spoke to Q-Tech's mgmt. and we maintain our positive view on high-end Android recovery to drive ASP/shipment upside in FY24E. Q-tech also expected GPM improvement in 1H24E thanks to better product mix and easing competition. For 1Q24, Q-Tech posted impressive growth of 23%/179% YoY in mobile/non-mobile CCM shipment, thanks to inventory restocking, customers' project cycles and auto/IoT order wins. We raised our FY24/25E EPS by 2-5% to factor in better ASP/shipment. Trading at 9.7x/7.1x FY24/25E P/E, we think the stock is attractive (vs 18x P/E for 8-yr hist. avg.). Maintain BUY with new TP of HK$3.93, based on 11.0x FY24E P/E (vs 10x prior) for higher earnings visibility. Catalysts include product launches and better monthly shipment.
我們最近與Q-Tech的管理層進行了交談，我們對高端安卓的復甦持樂觀態度，以推動 FY24E 的ASP/出貨量上漲。Q-tech還預計，由於產品組合的改善和競爭的緩解，1H24E 的GPM將有所改善。在24年第一季度，Q-Tech的移動/非移動CCM出貨量同比增長了23％/179％，這要歸功於庫存補貨、客戶的項目週期和汽車/物聯網訂單的勝利。我們將24/25財年的每股收益提高了2-5％，以考慮ASP/出貨量的改善。我們認爲該股在24/25財年的市盈率爲9.7倍/7.1倍，具有吸引力（相比之下，8年曆史平均市盈率爲18倍）。根據11.0倍的 FY24E 市盈率（相比之前的10倍），以3.93港元的新目標價維持買入，以提高盈利知名度。催化劑包括產品發佈和更好的月出貨量。
1Q24 shipment recovery on track due to restocking and order cycles.
由於補貨和訂單週期，24 年第一季度的出貨恢復步入正軌。
Q-Tech reported 1Q24 mobile CCM shipment of 23% YoY and high-end 32M+ CCM mix of 45% (vs 42% in FY23). For Mar 23, mgmt. attributed strong MoM growth of 32% to post-CNY seasonal rebound and customers' project cycle. For non-mobile CCM, 1Q24 shipment jumped 179% YoY thanks to auto/IoT CCM demand. Overall, we are positive on high-end Android and auto/IoT momentum into 2Q24E backed by product launches.
Q-Tech報告稱，24年第一季度移動CCM的出貨量同比增長23％，超過3200萬的高端CCM組合爲45％（而23財年爲42％）。3月23日，mgmt.將強勁的環比增長32％歸因於人民幣後的季節性反彈和客戶的項目週期。非移動CCM方面，由於汽車/物聯網CCM的需求，24年第一季度的出貨量同比增長了179％。總體而言，在產品發佈的支持下，我們對高端安卓和汽車/物聯網向 2Q24E 的勢頭持樂觀態度。
2024 Outlook: CCM GPM recovery; auto/IoT CCM the bright spots. Looking into 2024, mgmt. guided mobile CCM shipment to grow 5%+ YoY, driven by Android recovery, order wins and spec upgrade (OLS/periscope /Iris diaphragm). Additionally, mgmt. expected 32M+ CCM mix of 45%+ (vs 42% in FY23), and industry GPM will recover driven by demand recovery and easing competition. For auto CCM, mgmt. guided 100-200% YoY given order wins from domestic tier-1 and overseas clients. For IoT CCM, mgmt. expected growth will come from DJI projects. Overall, mgmt. guided non- smartphone CCM shipment to jump 50%+ YoY in FY24E.
2024 年展望：CCM GPM 復甦；汽車/物聯網 CCM 是亮點。展望2024年，在安卓復甦、訂單中標和規格升級（OLS/Periscope/Iris隔膜）的推動下，管理層指導移動CCM出貨量將同比增長5％以上。此外，管理層預計超過3200萬的CCM組合將超過45％（而23財年爲42％），在需求復甦和競爭緩解的推動下，行業GPM將恢復。對於汽車CCM，管理層的指導是，從國內一線和海外客戶中贏得的訂單中，同比增長100-200％。對於物聯網CCM而言，管理層的預期增長將來自大疆創新項目。總體而言，管理層指導 FY24E 中非智能手機 CCM 的出貨量將同比增長50％以上。
2023 results in-line. Revenue/net profit decline of 9%/52% YoY in FY23 was mainly due to soft smartphone demand and GPM pressure. However, 2H23 revenue recovered to 6% YoY (vs -23% YoY in 1H23) and 2H23 GPM improved 1.1pts HoH to 4.5% thanks to restocking and better product mix.
2023 年業績公佈。23財年收入/淨利潤同比下降9％/52％，這主要是由於智能手機需求疲軟和GPM壓力。然而，由於補貨和產品組合的改善，下半年收入同比恢復至6％（23年上半年同比下降23％），而下半年的GPM同比增長1.1個百分點至4.5％。
Expect earnings recovery in FY24/25E; Maintain BUY. While 2H23 GPM recovery and shipment rebound have been priced in, we expect high-end Android recovery and spec upgrade will boost further ASP/earnings upside in FY24E. Our FY24-26E EPS are 8-31% above consensus. Trading at 9.7x/7.1x FY24/25E P/E, we think the stock is attractive. Maintain BUY.
預計24/25財年的收益將回升；維持買入。儘管 2023 年下半年 GPM 的復甦和出貨量反彈已經被考慮在內，但我們預計，高端安卓系統的復甦和規格升級將進一步推動 FY24E 的 ASP/收益上漲。我們的 FY24-26E 每股收益比市場預期高出8-31％。我們認爲該股具有吸引力，交易價格爲24/25財年市盈率爲9.7倍/7.1倍。維持買入。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。