share_log

Juneyao Airlines Co., Ltd Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Juneyao Airlines Co., Ltd Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

吉祥航空有限公司的收益未达到分析师的预期:以下是分析师现在的预测
Simply Wall St ·  04/11 07:09

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Juneyao Airlines Co., Ltd (SHSE:603885), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its yearly results last week. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CN¥20b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 17%, coming in at just CN¥0.34 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

分析师可能对吉祥航空有限公司(SHSE: 603885)过于看涨,因为该公司在上周发布年度业绩时未达到预期。总体而言,这并不是一个好结果——虽然收入略低于分析师预期的200亿元人民币,但法定收益未达到预期的17%,每股收益仅为0.34元人民币。根据结果,分析师更新了他们的盈利模式,很高兴知道他们是否认为公司的前景发生了巨大变化,或者业务是否照旧。我们认为,读者会发现分析师对明年最新(法定)财报后的预测很有趣。

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SHSE:603885 Earnings and Revenue Growth April 10th 2024
SHSE: 603885 收益和收入增长 2024 年 4 月 10 日

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Juneyao Airlines' twelve analysts is for revenues of CN¥24.6b in 2024. This reflects a substantial 22% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 166% to CN¥0.91. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥25.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.09 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.

考虑到最新业绩,吉祥航空的十二位分析师的共识预测是,2024年的收入为246亿元人民币。这反映了与过去12个月相比,收入大幅增长了22%。每股收益预计将增长166%,至0.91元人民币。在本财报发布之前,分析师一直预测2024年的收入为250亿元人民币,每股收益(EPS)为1.09元人民币。最新业绩公布后,分析师似乎变得更加看跌。尽管收入预测没有变化,但每股收益的预期确实有所下调。

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 6.5% to CN¥20.74, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Juneyao Airlines analyst has a price target of CN¥26.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥14.70. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

得知共识目标股价下跌6.5%,至20.74元人民币,这可能会令人惊讶,分析师明确将较低的预测收益与股价表现联系起来。共识目标股价只是个别分析师目标的平均值,因此——可以很方便地看到基础估计值的范围有多广。最乐观的吉祥航空分析师将目标股价定为每股26.00元人民币,而最悲观的分析师则将目标股价定为14.70元人民币。如你所见,分析师对该股的未来并不完全一致,但估计范围仍然相当狭窄,这可能表明结果并非完全不可预测。

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. For example, we noticed that Juneyao Airlines' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 22% growth to the end of 2024 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 2.4% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 9.3% per year. Not only are Juneyao Airlines' revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

了解这些预测的更多背景信息的一种方法是研究它们与过去的业绩相比如何,以及同一行业中其他公司的表现。例如,我们注意到,吉祥航空的增长率预计将大幅加快,预计到2024年底,收入按年计算将实现22%的增长。这远高于其在过去五年中每年2.4%的历史下降幅度。相比之下,我们的数据表明,预计该行业其他公司(有分析师报道)的收入每年将增长9.3%。吉祥航空的收入不仅有望改善,而且分析师似乎也预计其增长速度将超过整个行业。

The Bottom Line

底线

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Juneyao Airlines. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

最大的担忧是,分析师下调了每股收益预期,这表明吉祥航空可能会面临业务不利因素。令人高兴的是,收入预测没有重大变化,预计该业务的增长速度仍将快于整个行业。此外,分析师还下调了目标股价,这表明最新消息加剧了人们对业务内在价值的悲观情绪。

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Juneyao Airlines analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

话虽如此,公司收益的长期轨迹比明年重要得多。根据吉祥航空多位分析师的估计,到2026年,你可以在我们的平台上免费查看。

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Juneyao Airlines that you should be aware of.

别忘了可能仍然存在风险。例如,我们已经为吉祥航空确定了您应该注意的1个警告标志。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

对这篇文章有反馈吗?对内容感到担忧?直接联系我们。 或者,给编辑团队 (at) simplywallst.com 发送电子邮件。
Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。

译文内容由第三方软件翻译。


以上内容仅用作资讯或教育之目的,不构成与富途相关的任何投资建议。富途竭力但不能保证上述全部内容的真实性、准确性和原创性。
    抢沙发