CHINA RAILWAY CONSTRUCTION(01186.HK):DIVIDEND PAYOUT SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED MAINTAIN "BUY"
CHINA RAILWAY CONSTRUCTION(01186.HK):DIVIDEND PAYOUT SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED MAINTAIN "BUY"
New contracts signed increased 1.5% YoY to RMB3.3 trillion. 1) By industry types, construction operation new contracts signed increased 8.8% YoY to RMB2.0 trillion, environmental protection new contracts signed increased 34.2% YoY to RMB255.9 billion. By regions, domestic new contracts signed increased 3.5% YoY to RMB3.0 trillion (accounting for 92.3% of total new contracts), overseas new contracts signed decreased 17.4% YoY to RMB252.8 billion (accounting for 7.7% of total new contracts). By quarters, growth in new contracts signed from Q1 to Q4 in 2023 were +16%/ -5%/ -17%/ +8%. 2) The Company proposed to distribute a dividend of RMB4.75 billion for 2023, or RMB0.35 per share (2022: RMB0.28 per share), accounting for 20.18% of the distributable profits attributable to shareholders (2022: 15.91%).We lower the TP to HK$8.50 but reiterate "Buy" rating. We lower the EPS forecasts for China Railway Construction (CRC, the "Company") in 2024/ 2025 by 15.6%/ 21.8% to RMB2.021/ RMB2.122, respectively, and initiate the EPS forecast for 2026 at RMB2.232. We lower the TP to HK$8.50, equivalent to 4.7/ 4.3x/ 4.1x 2024/ 2025/ 2026 EV/EBITDA.
我們將目標價下調至8.50港元，但重申 “買入” 評級。我們將中國鐵建（CRC，“公司”）在2024/2025年的每股收益預測分別下調了15.6％/21.8％，至人民幣2.021元/人民幣2.122元，並將2026年的每股收益預測爲人民幣2.232元。我們將目標價下調至8.50港元，相當於4.7/ 4.3x/ 4.1x 2024/ 2025/ 2026年的EV/EBITDA。
2023 shareholders' net profit decreased 2.2% YoY to RMB26.1 billion, and results were below expectation. 1) Total revenue in 2023 was RMB1.14 trillion, up 3.8% YoY, of which construction operation was RMB987.3 billion, up 2.3% YoY, and real estate development was RMB83.3 billion, up 33.8% YoY, logistics and others was RMB95.9 billion, up 0.4% YoY. 2) Shareholders' net profit was RMB26.1 billion, down 2.2% YoY, shareholders' net profit excluding non-recurring G/L was RMB24.6 billion, up 1.9% YoY. 3) In 2023, the gross margin was 10.40% (+0.31 ppt), the expenses ratio was 5.47% (+0.26 ppt), the net profit margin was 2.29% (-0.14 ppt), the weighted ROE was 9.80% (-1.25 ppt), and total debt ratio was 74.92% (+0.25 ppt).
2023年股東淨利潤同比下降2.2％，至261億元人民幣，業績低於預期。1) 2023年總收入爲人民幣1.14萬億元，同比增長3.8％，其中建築業務爲人民幣9,873億元，同比增長2.3％，房地產開發爲833億元人民幣，同比增長33.8％，物流及其他爲人民幣959億元，同比增長0.4％。2) 股東淨利潤爲人民幣261億元，同比下降2.2％，不包括非經常性總賬在內的股東淨利潤爲人民幣246億元，同比增長1.9％。3）2023年，毛利率爲10.40％（+0.31個百分點），支出比率爲5.47％（+0.26個百分點），淨利潤率爲2.29％（-0.14個百分點），加權投資回報率爲9.80％（-1.25個百分點），總負債比率爲74.92％（+0.25個百分點）。
Net operating cash flow decreased YoY, while accounts receivable and impairment losses increased YoY in 2023. 1) Net operating cash flow in 2023 was RMB20.4 billion (2022: RMB56.1 billion), Q1-Q4 were -RMB39.2 billion/ +RMB19.9 billion/ -RMB23.8 billion/ +RMB63.6 billion, respectively (-RMB41.1 billion/ +RMB21.5 billion/ +RMB18.4 billion/ +RMB57.3 billion for Q1-Q4 in 2022). 2) Net operating cash flow and investing cash flow combined was -RMB35.5 billion (2022: +RMB0.5 billion). 3) Accounts receivable increased 10.3% YoY to RMB155.8 billion, and total impairment losses increased 25.3% to RMB9.9 billion.
淨運營現金流同比下降，而應收賬款和減值損失在2023年同比增加。1) 2023 年的淨運營現金流爲人民幣204億元（2022年：人民幣561億元），Q1-Q4 分別爲-392億元/+人民幣199億元/-238億元/+人民幣636億元（-人民幣411億元/+215億元人民幣/ +215億元/+人民幣215億元/ ++238億元/+人民幣636億元/ +人民幣215億元/ ++人民幣636億元/ ++人民幣215億元/ ++215億元/+人民幣215億元/ ++238億元/+人民幣636億元 2022年，Q1-Q4 的淨運營現金流和投資現金流合計爲人民幣184億元/+573億元）。2) 淨運營現金流和投資現金流合計爲人民幣355億元（2022年：+人民幣5億元）。3) 應收賬款同比增長10.3％，至人民幣1,558億元，減值總額虧損增加了25.3％，至人民幣99億元。
New contracts signed increased 1.5% YoY to RMB3.3 trillion. 1) By industry types, construction operation new contracts signed increased 8.8% YoY to RMB2.0 trillion, environmental protection new contracts signed increased 34.2% YoY to RMB255.9 billion. By regions, domestic new contracts signed increased 3.5% YoY to RMB3.0 trillion (accounting for 92.3% of total new contracts), overseas new contracts signed decreased 17.4% YoY to RMB252.8 billion (accounting for 7.7% of total new contracts). By quarters, growth in new contracts signed from Q1 to Q4 in 2023 were +16%/ -5%/ -17%/ +8%. 2) The Company proposed to distribute a dividend of RMB4.75 billion for 2023, or RMB0.35 per share (2022: RMB0.28 per share), accounting for 20.18% of the distributable profits attributable to shareholders (2022: 15.91%).
新籤合同同比增長1.5％，至人民幣3.3萬億元。1）按行業類型劃分，建築運營新簽訂的合同同比增長8.8％至人民幣2.0萬億元，環保新籤合同同比增長34.2％，至人民幣2559億元。按地區劃分，國內新籤合同同比增長3.5％，至人民幣3.0萬億元（佔新合同總額的92.3％），海外新籤合同同比下降17.4％，至人民幣2528億元（佔新合同總額的7.7％）。按季度來看，2023年第一季度至第四季度簽署的新合同增長了+16％/-5％/-17％/+8％。2）公司提議在2023年分配人民幣47.5億元的股息，合每股0.35元人民幣（2022年：每股0.28元人民幣），佔股東可分配利潤的20.18％（2022年：15.91％）。
Risks: 1) Government infrastructure spending may be lower than expected;2) overseas project risks.
風險：1）政府基礎設施支出可能低於預期；2）海外項目風險。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。