In March 2024, the company's sales decline narrowed slightly, and land acquisition continued to focus on sinking cities, maintaining an increase in holdings rating. In the first quarter of 2024, the company's cumulative contract sales amount was 7.9 billion yuan (RMB, same below), and the contract sales area was 710,000 square meters, down 41% and 38% year-on-year respectively. Among them, sales performance in March picked up slightly from January to February. Maintain the 2024-2026 EPS at 0.66 yuan, 0.68 yuan, and 0.73 yuan, and maintain the holdings increase rating.
Sales performance improved marginally, with monthly sales in March peaking since the second half of 2023.
In March 2024, the company's contract sales area was 310,000 square meters, and the contract sales amount was 3.4 billion yuan, down 36% and 40%, respectively. The large decline was related to the high base for the same period in 2023, but it was 5 pct and 2 pct narrower than January to February, respectively, and sales performance improved. In terms of absolute scale, monthly sales in March were the highest since July 2023, up 10% and 12% respectively from the monthly average for the third quarter of 2023 and the monthly average for the fourth quarter of 2023, but still below the monthly average for the first half of 2023 (4.3 billion yuan). Furthermore, as of the end of March, the total unsubscribed amount was nearly 900 million yuan, and the cumulative unsubscribed area was nearly 70,000 square meters.
The average sales price in March fell slightly to the level of 2022, which has a certain relationship with the monthly push situation. The company's average sales price in March was 10,834 yuan/square meter, down 7% year on year and 6% month-on-month, lower than the average sales price for the full year of 2023 (12,122 yuan/square meter), which is comparable to the average sales price for the full year of 2022 (10,823 yuan/square meter), and will continue to track the company's price resilience in key cities.
The company continued to consolidate its market share in the sinking city and added a new land reserve in Yinchuan in March. When other leading real estate companies concentrated their resources in first-tier cities, the company's advantage was prominent among the 40 cities in the layout, while Yinchuan was one of the layout cities. In 2023, the city added a new land reserve with a floor area of nearly 190,000 square meters, a sales area of 180,000 square meters for the four major projects, and a sales amount of 2.1 billion yuan. In March 2024, the company added a new project in Jinfeng District, Yinchuan. The land area is nearly 40,000 square meters, the floor area is about 90,000 square meters, the equity ratio is 100%, and the total land price is about 200 million yuan.
Risk warning: Housing prices and demand continue to decline sharply, and other brands of central enterprises entering low-energy markets have worsened the market competition pattern