CHINA GOLD INTERNATIONAL(02099.HK):PRODUCTION OF JIAMA MINE IS EXPECTED TO RESUME NORMAL MAINTAIN "ACCUMULATE"
CHINA GOLD INTERNATIONAL(02099.HK):PRODUCTION OF JIAMA MINE IS EXPECTED TO RESUME NORMAL MAINTAIN "ACCUMULATE"
We revise up the TP of China Gold International (the "Company") to HK$56.10 due to higher PE valuation level and maintain "Accumulate".
由於市盈率估值水平的上升，我們將中金國際（“公司”）的目標價上調至56.10港元，並維持 “累積”。
Our TP represents 16.4x, 9.0x and 7.6x 2024-2026 PER. We forecast net profit of the Company to grow steadily in 2024-2026, driven by higher metal price and more mining output.
我們的目標股價爲2024-2026年市盈率16.4倍、9.0倍和7.6倍。我們預測，受金屬價格上漲和礦業產量增加的推動，該公司的淨利潤將在2024-2026年穩步增長。
The Company recorded a loss of US$25.5 million in 2023. The production of the Jiama Mine has been suspended since March 27, 2023 due to an overflow accident of its tailing pond. As a result, total mining output of the Company dropped significantly and the Company did not record any sales from Jiama Mine from the 2nd quarter of 2023. In 2023, total mined copper output of the Company decreased 76% yoy to 20,051 tons, and was the main reason of loss. Total output of mined gold also decreased 38% yoy to 147,963 oz.
該公司在2023年錄得2550萬美元的虧損。由於尾礦池發生溢流事故，甲瑪礦自2023年3月27日起暫停生產。結果，該公司的礦業總產量大幅下降，自2023年第二季度以來，該公司沒有記錄Jiama Mine的任何銷售額。2023年，該公司開採的銅總產量同比下降76％，至20,051噸，這是虧損的主要原因。開採黃金的總產量也同比下降了38％，至147,963盎司。
We forecast gold price to rise in 2024 as the US Federal Reserve may cut interest rates. Gold assets are of high value during the period of US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. If we review the performance of the gold price during the cycle from interest rate hike to interest rate cut, we may find out that gold assets are of high value in the period when there are significant changes in the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. When the market was affirmed that the US Federal Reserve would start to cut interest rates, the gold price experienced another round of increases. It's widely expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2024 and the only debate is the timing and the number of cuts, but these two factors will not impact the gold price trend.
我們預測，由於聯儲局可能降息，黃金價格將在2024年上漲。在美國聯邦儲備銀行降息期間，黃金資產具有很高的價值。如果我們回顧一下金價在從加息到降息的週期中的表現，我們可能會發現，在聯儲局貨幣政策發生重大變化的時期，黃金資產具有很高的價值。當市場確認聯儲局將開始降息時，金價經歷了又一輪上漲。人們普遍預計，聯儲局將在2024年降息，唯一的爭論是降息的時機和次數，但這兩個因素不會影響金價走勢。
The company expects the production of the Jiama Mine to resume normal in the middle of 2024. In 2023, the Company had finished the job of repairing and reinforcing the dam of the tailing pond as required. The Company estimates that the production resumption of Jiama Mine might be approved by the government in May. The Company plans to produce 43,200-44,500 tons of mined copper and 148,536-157,861 oz of mined gold in 2024.
該公司預計，佳瑪礦的生產將在2024年中期恢復正常。2023年，該公司按要求完成了尾礦池大壩的修復和加固工作。該公司估計，Jiama Mine的恢復生產可能會在5月獲得政府的批准。該公司計劃在2024年生產43,200-44,500噸開採的銅和148,536-157,861盎司的開採黃金。
Catalysts: Rise in gold and copper price; production of the Jiama Mine may resume normal.
催化劑：黃金和銅價上漲；佳瑪礦的生產可能會恢復正常。
Risks: Decline in gold price; gold and copper mine production impact from external factors.
風險：金價下跌；外部因素對金礦和銅礦產量的影響。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。