TK GROUP(2283.HK):POSITIVE ON BUSINESS RECOVERY IN FY24/25E
TK GROUP(2283.HK):POSITIVE ON BUSINESS RECOVERY IN FY24/25E
Attractive valuation at 4.4x FY24E P/E and 10% yield; Maintain BUY. We adjusted our TP to HK$2.79 based on the same 8.2x FY24E P/E, in-line with 5-year historical forward P/E. Trading at 4.4x FY24E P/E, we think the stock is attractive considering 10% yield. Maintain BUY. Catalysts include Meta/Google/Amazon product launches, order ramp-up of medical device/e-cigarette customers and margin recovery.We recently spoke with TK Group (TK)'s mgmt. post FY23 earnings, and mgmt. reiterated positive view on order restocking, new client wins, capacity ramp-up in Vietnam/Huizhou and business opportunities in automotive/ medical device/e- cigarette. Following a challenging 2023, we expect TK's net profit to grow 38%/19% YoY in FY24/25E, backed by order wins from VR/e-cigarette/medical device, mobile & wearable/communications business recovery, and continued operating efficiency improvement. We adjusted TP to HK$2.79 based on same 8.2x FY24E P/E. Trading at 4.4x FY24E P/E with 10% yield, we think the stock offers attractive risk/reward. Maintain BUY.
我們最近與東江集團（TK）的管理層進行了交談，管理層發佈了23財年業績，管理層重申了對訂單補貨、贏得新客戶、越南/惠州產能增加以及汽車/醫療設備/電子煙商機的積極看法。在經歷了充滿挑戰的2023年之後，我們預計TK的淨利潤將在24/25財年同比增長38％/19％，這要歸因於虛擬現實/電子煙/醫療設備贏得的訂單、移動和可穿戴設備/通信業務的復甦以及持續的運營效率改善。根據同樣的8.2倍 FY24E 市盈率，我們將目標股價調整爲2.79港元。交易價格爲4.4倍 FY24E 市盈率，收益率爲10％，我們認爲該股具有誘人的風險/回報。維持買入。
FY23 earnings dragged by weak demand in consumer electronics /communications. TK posted FY23 revenue/net profit decline of 15%/10% YoY, due to demand weakness in consumer electronics/communications segments (except automotive and e-cigarette products), partly offset by improved GPM to 26.4% (vs. 23.7% in FY22) on favourable FX and easing automotive upstream supply. By segment, 1) mobile & wearable (Apple, Otterbox, Jabra) dropped 15% YoY, 2) communications (Polycom) dropped 58% YoY, 3) smart home (Google, Amazon) dropped 43% YoY, 4) medical device (Philips) dropped 18% YoY, 5) automobile segment grew 23% YoY, and 6) other products grew 30% YoY (+63% YoY for e- cigarette). Projects-on-hand by FY23 amounted to HK$ 830.6mn (+2% YoY). Weakness in communications was mainly due to product call-back of key customers, and sales of major CE customers was impacted by inventory correction, while automotive segment benefited from easing shortage of auto supply chain.
23財年的收益受消費電子/通信需求疲軟的拖累。TK公佈23財年收入/淨利潤同比下降15％/10％，這是由於消費電子/通信領域（汽車和電子煙產品除外）需求疲軟，但由於外匯有利和汽車上游供應放鬆，GPM提高至26.4％（22財年爲23.7％），部分抵消了這一點。按細分市場來看，1）移動和可穿戴設備（蘋果，Otterbox，Jabra）同比下降15％，2）通信（寶利通）同比下降58％，3）智能家居（谷歌，亞馬遜）同比下降43％，4）醫療設備（飛利浦）同比下降18％，5）汽車板塊同比增長23％，6）其他產品同比增長30％（電子煙同比增長63％）。截至23財年，手頭項目總額爲8.306億港元（同比增長2％）。溝通疲軟主要是由於主要客戶的產品回調，主要消費電子客戶的銷售受到庫存調整的影響，而汽車板塊則受益於汽車供應鏈短缺的緩解。
FY24 Outlook: CE market recovery, new order wins and new capacity ramp-up. Backed by new order wins in earphones/medical device/e- cigarette/ automotive segments, inventory restocking and market recovery in consumer electronics, we expect TK's revenue/net profit to deliver 19%/ 38% YoY growth in FY24E. TK also issued special dividend in FY23, resulting in dividend payout ratio at 83%. Mgmt. expected to maintain high level of dividend payout ratio if no major investment takes place in FY24E.
24財年展望：消費電子市場復甦，新訂單獲勝，新產能增加。在耳機/醫療設備/電子煙/汽車領域贏得新訂單、庫存補貨和消費電子產品市場復甦的支持下，我們預計，TK的收入/淨利潤將在FY24E 中實現19％/38％的同比增長。TK還在23財年發行了特別股息，使股息支付率達到83％。如果不對 FY24E 進行重大投資，Mgmt. 預計將保持較高的股息支付率。
Attractive valuation at 4.4x FY24E P/E and 10% yield; Maintain BUY. We adjusted our TP to HK$2.79 based on the same 8.2x FY24E P/E, in-line with 5-year historical forward P/E. Trading at 4.4x FY24E P/E, we think the stock is attractive considering 10% yield. Maintain BUY. Catalysts include Meta/Google/Amazon product launches, order ramp-up of medical device/e-cigarette customers and margin recovery.
估值誘人，FY24E 市盈率爲4.4倍，收益率爲10％；維持買入水平。根據同樣的8.2倍 FY24E 市盈率，我們將目標股價調整至2.79港元，與5年曆史遠期市盈率一致。考慮到10％的收益率，我們認爲該股的市盈率爲4.4倍 FY24E，具有吸引力。維持買入。催化劑包括Meta/谷歌/亞馬遜產品的發佈、醫療器械/電子煙客戶的訂單增加以及利潤回升。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
