Core views:
The company released its 2023 annual report. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 5.342 billion yuan (+18.26%, the following are year-on-year values), net profit to mother of 1,482 billion yuan (+37.66%), and net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 1,267 billion yuan (+41.77%). Among them, the fourth quarter achieved revenue of 1,429 billion yuan (+56.23%), net profit to mother of 414 million yuan (+135.85%), and net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 361 million yuan (+166.97%), which is in line with expectations.
The new pulp station was put into use, and the expansion of the slurry source of the original pulp station drove a marked acceleration in pulp collection, and the influenza vaccine resumed growth. By business, the company's blood products business achieved revenue of 2,926 billion yuan (+9.22%) in '23, including 1,057 billion yuan (+6.97%) for albumin, 845 million yuan (+8.96%), and other blood products of 1,025 million yuan (+11.87%). As of the disclosure date of the annual report, the company had a total of 32 single plasma collection stations, 7 of which were newly added in '22. The company's pulping volume in 2023 was 1342.32 tons. The significant increase in pulping volume was mainly due to the double impact of the company fully exploiting the potential of a single station, promoting endogenous growth in pulping stations and putting new pulping stations into use (4 of the 7 new pulping stations have already obtained pulping permits). Hualan Vaccine, the main vaccine business, achieved revenue of 2,410 million yuan (+31.98%) and net profit of 860 million yuan (+65.38%).
Continue to increase investment in R&D and cultivate new profit growth points. The company is speeding up the development of drugs such as human vascular hemophilia factor (vWF), and accelerating clinical research work on recombinant exendin-4-FC fusion protein injections, high-concentration next-generation intravenous human immunoglobulin, and human coagulation factor IX (FIX); gene companies are doing a good job in applying for the marketing of bevacizumab to accelerate phase III clinical research on adalimumab, trastuzumab, rituximab, and denomab.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. We expect the company's 24-26 EPS to be 0.91, 1.04, and 1.21 yuan/share, respectively. Considering that the fresh pulp station has met expectations to increase the scale of pulp harvesting, the vaccine will resume growth, and the company will be given 25 times PE in 24 years, corresponding to a reasonable value of 22.70 yuan/share, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning. Pulp station construction progress falls short of expectations; influenza vaccine impairment risk; product marketing and sales fall short of expectations; new product development progress falls short of expectations; market competition increases risk.