Off-Road & Larger Engines Continue To Propel Yuchai
Off-Road & Larger Engines Continue To Propel Yuchai
Off-Road & Larger Engines Continue To Propel Yuchai
越野和大型發動機繼續推動玉柴的發展
Trend Towards Off-Road and Larger Engines Continues In H2:23. CYD reported second half results with Revenue of RMB 8.9 billion, an 18.9% increase from the year ago period, with total unit sales increasing 5.2%, from 140,345 to 147,700. The increase in unit sales was led by continued growth in the higher price offroad markets, as well as a resurgence for its existing and new energy products in the truck and bus market, with these higher priced engines contributing to the larger revenue increase. Gross margins were flat from the year ago period, at 16.2%, but better than the 15.2% we had estimated given the tougher market. Opex of RMB 1.5 billion was well above the year ago period and our estimate, each of which stood at RMB 1.2 billion. Prior to the close of 2023, the Company sold Yuchai Remanufacturing Services (Suzhou) Co., Ltd, to Beijing Liandong Jinyuan Management Technology Co., Ltd. for RMB 179.94 million, which netted to a RMB 113.0 million Other Income Gain in the period. Net Profit for the first half was RMB 178.3 million, or 4.37 per share, in line with our estimate. Net Profit for the second half was RMB 107.1 million, or 2.62 per share, in line with our estimate.
在 H 2:23 中，越野和大型發動機的趨勢仍在繼續。CYD公佈了下半年的業績，收入爲89億元人民幣，比去年同期增長18.9％，總單位銷售額增長了5.2％，從140,345套增至147,700套。銷量的增長是由價格上漲的越野市場的持續增長以及其現有和新能源產品在卡車和公共汽車市場的復甦帶動的，這些價格較高的發動機促進了更大的收入增長。毛利率與去年同期持平，爲16.2％，但鑑於市場更加艱難，好於我們估計的15.2％。15億元人民幣的運營支出遠高於去年同期和我們的估計，均爲12億元人民幣。在2023年底之前，公司以人民幣1.7994億元將玉柴再製造服務（蘇州）有限公司出售給北京聯東金源管理技術有限公司，淨收益爲同期人民幣1.13億元的其他收益收益。上半年的淨利潤爲人民幣1.783億元，合每股4.37美元，與我們的估計一致。下半年的淨利潤爲人民幣1.071億元，合每股2.62美元，與我們的估計一致。
Fiscal 2023 Dividend. The final dividend announcement for fiscal 2023 should come in mid-July. While CYD does not have a formal dividend payout policy, we expect it to be around $0.30 per share.
2023 財年股息。2023財年的末期股息公告應在7月中旬發佈。儘管CYD沒有正式的股息支付政策，但我們預計股息將在每股0.30美元左右。
Model Update. We made a handful of adjustments to our model, including reducing our unit sales estimate, but increasing the contribution from larger engines and off-road engines. We increased our Gross Margin estimate on better cost controls and operating efficiencies, but also increased our Opex estimate as these costs continue to grow with the topline. The net impact is a decrease in Revenue from RMB 19.9 billion to RMB 18.30 billion, and a reduction in our 2024 Diluted EPS estimate from RMB 9.58 to RMB 7.87.
模型更新。我們對車型進行了少量調整，包括降低銷量預期，但增加了大型發動機和越野發動機的貢獻。由於更好的成本控制和運營效率，我們提高了毛利率預期，但由於這些成本繼續隨着收入增長而增長，我們也提高了運營支出估算。淨影響是收入從199億元人民幣減少至183.0億元人民幣，以及我們對2024年攤薄後每股收益的估計從9.58元人民幣降至7.87元人民幣。
While the market is doing relatively well thus far in 2024, the rebound in the economy does not appear to be what we previously expected. Additionally, the value of the stock is hurt by the depreciation in the Renminbi against the US Dollar. As a result, we are reducing our target price from $15.00 to $12.50, but maintaining our Buy rating based on valuation. Our target price is based on the average of a P/E multiple of roughly 10 times our forward twelve month diluted EPS estimate of RMB 7.87 and an EV/EBITDA multiple of roughly 5 times our forward twelve month EBITDA estimate of RMB 1,120.6 million.
儘管到目前爲止，市場在2024年表現相對較好，但經濟的反彈似乎並不像我們先前的預期。此外，人民幣兌美元貶值也影響了股票的價值。因此，我們將目標價格從15.00美元下調至12.50美元，但根據估值維持買入評級。我們的目標價格基於平均市盈倍數約爲我們預估的十二個月攤薄後每股收益7.87元人民幣的10倍，以及前十二個月息稅折舊攤銷前利潤估計值的約5倍，即11.206億元人民幣。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。