YUNKANG GROUP(2325.HK):BACK TO NORMAL GROWTH
YUNKANG GROUP(2325.HK):BACK TO NORMAL GROWTH
Yunkang Group reported 2023 revenue of RMB891.5mn, down by 76.3% YoY, primarily due to the sharp decline of diagnostic testing demand for COVID-19 in China. The blended gross margin improved to 36.5% in 2023 (+1.7 ppts), mainly due to enhanced operation efficiency and effective cost control. The selling expense rate increased to 16.9% (+8.6 ppts) since the proportion of non- COVID business increased substantially which required more marketing activities than COVID business. The administrative expense rate climbed to 21.5% (+11.2 ppts). Moreover, Yunkang Group recorded impairment losses on financial assets of RMB104.6mn, which were mainly provisions for trade receivables. As a result, Yunkang Group recorded a net loss of RMB101.9mn in 2023.
雲康集團報告2023年收入爲8.915億元人民幣，同比下降76.3％，這主要是由於中國對 COVID-19 的診斷測試需求急劇下降。混合毛利率在2023年提高到36.5％（+1.7個百分點），這主要是由於運營效率的提高和有效的成本控制。銷售費用率上升至16.9％（+8.6個百分點），因爲非COVID業務的比例大幅增加，這需要比COVID業務更多的營銷活動。管理費用率攀升至21.5％（+11.2個百分點）。此外，雲康集團記錄的金融資產減值損失爲人民幣1.046億元，主要是貿易應收賬款準備金。結果，雲康集團在2023年錄得1.019億元人民幣的淨虧損。
Solid growth of non-COVID business. In 2023, Yunkang Group's revenue decreased by 76.3% YoY to RMB891.5mn; while the Company's non-COVID business increased by 26.9% YoY. We estimated that the proportion of revenue generated from COVID business has declined from approximately 80% in 2022 to approximately 1% in 2023. Therefore, we think the revenue will resume normal growth in 2024E driven by the solid performance of its core business such as pathology diagnosis, infectious diseases testing, genetic diseases diagnosis and routine testing, etc.
非 COVID 業務穩步增長。2023年，雲康集團的收入同比下降76.3％，至人民幣8.915億元；而該公司的非新冠肺炎業務同比增長26.9％。我們估計，COVID業務產生的收入比例已從2022年的約80％下降到2023年的約1％。因此，我們認爲，在病理診斷、傳染病檢測、遺傳病診斷和常規檢測等核心業務的穩健表現的推動下，收入將在2024E恢復正常增長。
Diagnostic testing services for medical institution alliances became the largest business segment. As of 31 Dec 2023, Yunkang Group has established 416 jointly constructed on-site diagnostic centers (vs. 398 at the end-2022), serving over 1,500 medical institutions. Thanks to the continuous expansion of medical institution alliance network, diagnostic testing services for medical institution alliances became the largest business segment of Yunkang Group in 2023, accounting for 48.3% of the Company's total revenue (vs. 44.7% in 2022).
醫療機構聯盟的診斷測試服務成爲最大的業務領域。截至2023年12月31日，雲康集團已經建立了416個共同建造的現場診斷中心（2022年底爲398個），爲1,500多家醫療機構提供服務。由於醫療機構聯盟網絡的持續擴大，醫療機構聯盟的診斷測試服務在2023年成爲雲康集團最大的業務板塊，佔公司總收入的48.3％（2022年爲44.7％）。
Remaining RMB1.2bn trade receivables with an aging period of 1 to 2 years. In 2023, Yunkang Group recognized an impairment loss on trade receivables of RMB337.6mn. As of 31 Dec 2023, Yunkang Group's trade receivables with an aging of one to two years/ over two years amounted to RMB1,194.5mn/ RMB123.1mn, respectively, which accounted for 64.5%/ 6.7% of the total trade receivables. Yunkang Group established a specialized credit control team to mitigate the risks of trade receivables.
剩餘的12億元人民幣貿易應收賬款，賬齡期爲1至2年。2023年，雲康集團確認了3.376億元人民幣的貿易應收賬款減值虧損。截至2023年12月31日，雲康集團賬齡爲一至兩年/兩年以上的貿易應收賬款分別爲人民幣11.945億元/人民幣1.231億元，佔貿易應收賬款總額的64.5％/6.7％。雲康集團成立了專業的信用控制小組，以降低貿易應收賬款的風險。
Maintain BUY. Considering the decreased COVID business, we lowered our estimates on the Company's revenue to RMB981mn/1,098mn in 2024E/25E. We estimated that revenue from diagnostic testing services for medical institution alliances will increase by 13%/ 15% YoY in 2024E/25E while revenue from diagnostic outsourcing services will grow by 8%/ 10% YoY in 2024E/25E. We revised our DCF-based target price to HK$13.78 (WACC: 10.0%, terminal growth rate: 3.0%).
維持買入。考慮到COVID業務的減少，我們將公司在2024E/25E的收入估計下調至9.81億元人民幣/10.98億元人民幣。我們估計，醫療機構聯盟的診斷測試服務收入將在2024E/25E同比增長13％/15％，而診斷外包服務的收入將在2024E/25E同比增長8％/10％。我們將基於差價合約的目標價格上調至13.78港元（WACC：10.0％，最終增長率：3.0％）。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。