WESTERN MINING(601168):LAUNCHING YULONG PHASE III RETROFITTING AND CAPACITY EXPANSION PROJECT; WATCH EARNINGS GROWTH AHEAD
WESTERN MINING(601168):LAUNCHING YULONG PHASE III RETROFITTING AND CAPACITY EXPANSION PROJECT; WATCH EARNINGS GROWTH AHEAD
What's new
新增內容
Western Mining Group, the controlling shareholder of Western Mining, published the first environmental impact assessment of the Xizang Yulong copper mine Phase III project on March 211. The mineral treatment capacity of the Yulong copper mine will likely reach 30mnt/yr after the completion of the Phase III project. Its main products include copper and molybdenum concentrates.
西部礦業的控股股東西部礦業集團於211年3月21日發佈了西藏玉龍銅礦三期項目的首次環境影響評估。三期項目完成後,玉龍銅礦的礦產處理能力可能會達到每年3000萬噸。其主要產品包括銅和鉬精礦。
Comments
評論意見
Expanding production capacity of the Yulong copper mine; mineral treatment capacity to reach 30mnt/year. According to the Western Mining Group2, the Yulong Phase III retrofitting and capacity expansion project will keep the 18mnt/yr beneficiation plant in the Phase II project, dismantle the existing 4.5mnt/yr beneficiation plant for mixed ore, and build a new 11mnt/yr beneficiation plant, new tailings ponds and other auxiliary facilities. The new tailings pond in Segongnonggou is expected to have a service life of around 16 years. The mineral treatment capacity of the Yulong copper mine will likely reach 30mnt/yr after the completion of the Phase III retrofitting and capacity expansion project, up 32% from the pre-retrofitting level.
擴大玉龍銅礦的生產能力;礦物處理能力將達到3000萬噸/年。根據西部礦業集團2的說法,裕隆三期改造和產能擴建項目將在二期項目中保留每年1800萬噸的選礦廠,拆除現有的450萬噸/年的混合礦石選礦廠,並建造一座新的每年1100萬噸的選礦廠、新的尾礦池和其他輔助設施。位於二工農溝的新尾礦池預計使用壽命約爲16年。三期改造和產能擴建項目完成後,玉龍銅礦的礦產處理能力可能會達到每年3000萬噸,比改造前的水平增長32%。
Increasing mineral reserves and production capacity steadily; watch earnings growth ahead. The mineral treatment capability of Yulong No.1 and No.2 beneficiation plants increased to 22.8mnt/yr in November 2023 from 19.89mnt/yr, thanks to the technological retrofitting project starting in March 2023. We estimate that the production volume of metal at the two plants has increased by 21% to 145,000t/yr from 120,000/yr, and that the firm's attributable copper concentrate output has increased by 17%.
穩步增加礦產儲量和產能;關注未來的收益增長。得益於2023年3月啓動的技術改造項目,玉龍一號和二號選礦廠的礦物處理能力從每年19.89億噸提高到2023年11月的22.8萬噸/年。我們估計,這兩家工廠的金屬產量從每年12萬噸增長了21%,達到14.5萬噸,該公司的可歸銅精礦產量增長了17%。
We estimate that the production capacity of copper concentrates at the Yulong copper mine will likely reach 0.2mnt/yr after the completion of the Phase III retrofitting and capacity expansion project, up 38% from the pre- retrofitting level. We also think that the firm's attributable copper concentrate output will increase to 129,100t/year, up 30% from the pre- retrofitting level. In our opinion, earnings will increase steadily thanks to the technologically retrofitting project for Yulong No.1 and No.2 beneficiation plants and the Phase III retrofitting and capacity expansion project.
我們估計,在三期改造和產能擴張項目完成後,玉龍銅礦的銅精礦產能可能會達到每年0.2萬噸,比改造前的水平增長38%。我們還認爲,該公司的可歸銅精礦產量將增加到129,100噸/年,比改造前的水平增長30%。我們認爲,收益將穩步增長,這要歸功於玉龍一號和二號選礦廠的技術改造項目以及三期改造和產能擴張項目。
Increasing resources and improving governance; watch high-quality development and improved management in 2024. In 2023, the company increased its mineral resources by expanding the production capacity of the Yulong mine, adding lead and zinc reserves, extending its mining rights, and acquiring several mines from other companies. The firm continues to improve corporate governance. It expects high-quality development and improved management in 2024. Western Mining may continue to acquire high-quality mining resources in Qinghai and other provinces, increase efforts to explore mining resources in deep areas and on the periphery of mines.
增加資源和改善治理;關注2024年的高質量發展和管理的改善。2023年,該公司通過擴大玉龍礦的生產能力、增加鉛鋅儲量、擴大其採礦權以及從其他公司收購多個礦山來增加其礦產資源。該公司繼續改善公司治理。它預計,2024年將實現高質量發展和改善管理。西部礦業可能會繼續在青海和其他省份收購高質量的礦業資源,加大在深層地區和礦山周邊勘探礦業資源的力度。
Demand for copper to increase amid green transition; average copper price to increase in the medium and long term due to supply- side constraints. We estimate that demand for copper in the clean energy industry will likely increase at a CAGR of 24% in 2022-2026, and total copper demand may grow at a CAGR of 3% in 2022-2026. In addition, we expect the average copper price to increase, as capex has remained moderate in the copper industry since 2016 and development of copper mines takes time.
在綠色轉型期間,對銅的需求將增加;由於供應方面的限制,中期和長期的平均銅價將上漲。我們估計,在2022-2026年,清潔能源行業對銅的需求可能會以24%的複合年增長率增長,而在2022-2026年,銅的總需求可能以3%的複合年增長率增長。此外,我們預計平均銅價將上漲,因爲自2016年以來,銅行業的資本支出一直保持溫和,銅礦的開發需要時間。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
We maintain our earnings forecasts. The stock is trading at 11.4x 2024e and 10.9x 2025e P/E. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating and our target price of Rmb24.26. Our TP implies 15.1x 2024e and 14.5x 2025e P/E, offering 32.6% upside.
我們維持盈利預測。該股的市盈率爲2024年的11.4倍,2025年的市盈率爲10.9倍。我們維持跑贏大盤的評級,目標價爲24.26元人民幣。我們的目標股價意味着2024年的市盈率爲15.5倍,2025年市盈率爲14.5倍,上漲幅度爲32.6%。
Risks
風險
Metal prices decline; production volume of main metal products disappoints; development of mining projects slower than expected.
金屬價格下跌;主要金屬產品的產量令人失望;採礦項目的開發低於預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。