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SHANGHAI FILM CO. LTD.(601595):WITH SCARCE IP AND DEVELOPMENT CAPABILITIES SH FILM'S GROWTH POTENTIAL GRADUALLY MATERIALIZES

SHANGHAI FILM CO. LTD.(601595):WITH SCARCE IP AND DEVELOPMENT CAPABILITIES SH FILM'S GROWTH POTENTIAL GRADUALLY MATERIALIZES

上海電影公司LTD. (601595):憑藉稀缺的知識產權和開發能力,SH FILM的增長潛力逐漸顯現

Key Points: SH Film Co.'s strategic layout covers in-depth development of IP business, innovative upgrades in the theater business, and close collaboration with SH Film Group. These factors together form a solid foundation for the company's future growth.

要點:SH Film Co. '其戰略佈局包括知識產權業務的深度發展、影院業務的創新升級以及與上海電影集團的緊密合作。這些因素共同構成了公司未來增長的堅實基礎。

With IP and cinema business advancing hand in hand, SH Film Co. developed jointly with SH Film Group. The company's IP business not only represents the second growth curve but also drives cinema attendance and merchandise sales. SH Film Group is not only a major shareholder of SH Film Co. but also provides considerable support for its IP development. Conversely, the IP business of SH Film Co. also boosts the economic benefits of the group's cultural and tourism real estate.

隨着知識產權和電影業務的齊頭並進,SH Film Co. 與 SH Film Group 共同開發。該公司的知識產權業務不僅代表了第二條增長曲線,而且還推動了電影院的上座率和商品銷售。上海電影集團不僅是上海電影公司的主要股東,而且還爲其知識產權開發提供了大量支持。相反,SH Film Co. 的知識產權業務也提高了該集團文化和旅遊房地產的經濟效益。

The cinema business builds a foundation, with cinema renovation and film market recovery. Alpha: Shanghai cinemas undergo renovation and upgrades, employing diversified marketing strategies to effectively increase box office and attendance while reducing operating costs and expanding profit margins. Additionally, the company's IP business contributes to the development of its existing cinema and merchandise business, and cinema business, in turn, amplifies the influence of IP. Beta: The box office performance during New Year's Day and Spring Festival in 2024 slightly exceeded expectations. As for the summer and National Day box office, the release of blockbuster films is likely to continue driving market growth; the proportion of Shanghai's film box office is also likely to increase with the rise in the proportion of imported films.

影院業務奠定了基礎,電影院翻新和電影市場復甦。阿爾法:上海電影院進行改造和升級,採用多元化的營銷策略,有效提高票房和上座率,同時降低運營成本和擴大利潤率。此外,該公司的知識產權業務促進了其現有電影和商品業務的發展,而電影業務反過來又擴大了知識產權的影響力。測試版:2024年元旦和春節期間的票房表現略超預期。至於夏季和國慶節的票房,大片的上映可能會繼續推動市場增長;隨着進口電影比例的上升,上海電影票房的比例也可能會增加。

IP business is likely to become a lever for group resource integration. Market concerns about the company's IP development mainly revolve around the difficulty in calculating IP monetization potential, the early release year of IP, and the uncertainty of IP renovation effects. However, we believe that precise errors are inferior to vague correctness. Instead of calculating the valuation of each IP, we should pay more attention to the company's IP strategy and the important significance of this business for the cinema business and the overall strategy of the group. Compared to short-term challenges, we should focus on long- term development space. The process of renovating old IPs and cultivating new IPs undoubtedly faces many challenges, but through matrix-based development, online and offline linkage, and multi-channel penetration, IPs are likely to gradually integrate into people's daily lives; AI is also likely to reduce the cost of IP development and monetization while enhancing productivity. Classic animated IPs not only have profound cultural connotations but also contain enormous commercial value, which can be innovated and extended through sequels, derivatives, cross-border cooperation, etc., bringing new growth drivers for the company.

知識產權業務可能會成爲集團資源整合的槓桿。市場對公司知識產權開發的擔憂主要圍繞着難以計算知識產權貨幣化潛力、知識產權發行年份提前以及知識產權革新效果的不確定性。但是,我們認爲精確的錯誤不如模糊的正確性。我們不應該計算每個知識產權的估值,而應該更多地關注公司的知識產權戰略以及該業務對電影業務和集團整體戰略的重要意義。與短期挑戰相比,我們應該關注長期發展空間。翻新舊IP和培育新IP的過程無疑面臨許多挑戰,但通過基於矩陣的開發、線上線下聯動和多渠道滲透,知識產權很可能會逐漸融入人們的日常生活;人工智能也有可能在提高生產力的同時降低知識產權開發和變現的成本。經典動畫IP不僅具有深刻的文化內涵,還包含巨大的商業價值,可以通過續集、衍生品、跨境合作等進行創新和延伸,爲公司帶來新的增長動力。

Earnings Forecast & Rating: We expect the net profit of the company in 2023-2025 to be Rmb120/260/420mn, corresponding to P/E at 101x/48x/30x. We initiate coverage with "Buy" rating.

收益預測和評級:我們預計公司在2023-2025年的淨利潤爲人民幣1.20/260/4.2億元,相當於市盈率爲101倍/48倍/30倍。我們以 “買入” 評級啓動保險。

Risks: Lower-than-expected film box office performance, AI technology development, IP renovation and development.

風險:電影票房表現低於預期、人工智能技術開發、知識產權革新和開發。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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