Monday, April 8

Keywords：US New York Federal Reserve 1-year inflation forecast; Japan trade balance

On Monday, in terms of economic data, investors can simply pay attention to the US New York Federal Reserve's 1-year inflation forecast for March and Japan's trade balance for February.

In terms of IPOs, US stocks$Harden Technologies (HAHA.US)$It will go on sale today.

Tuesday, April 9th

Keywords: US NFIB Small Business Confidence Index; China's M2 money supply annual rate, new RMB loans, scale of social financing

On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, the US will announce the March NFIB Small Business Confidence Index; from April 9 to April 15, China will occasionally release financial data such as new RMB loans for March, the annual M2 money supply rate for March, and the scale of social financing for March; and Hong Kong, China will announce foreign exchange reserves for March.

The scale of social financing in China increased by 1.56 trillion yuan in February, and added RMB 1.45 trillion in loans in February, of which medium- and long-term corporate loans increased by 1.29 trillion yuan. At the end of February, the broad currency (M2) balance was 299.56 trillion yuan, up 8.7% year on year. Zhang Jingjing's team at China Merchants Securities believes that insufficient financing demand continues. Affected by the high base for the same period last year, the year-on-year decline in new credit in March was significant.

In terms of financial events, the 2026 FOMC voting committee and Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Kashkari delivered a speech.

In terms of IPOs, US stocks$CDT Environmental Technology (CDTG.US)$It will go on sale today.

Wednesday April 10th

Keywords: US CPI, wholesale sales monthly rate, API/EIA crude oil inventory; Delta Air Lines financial report

On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, the US will announce the March CPI, the monthly wholesale sales rate for February, and API/EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending April 5.

The market generally believes that the year-on-year increase in CPI in March rebounded to 3.5% from 3.2% last month, and the month-on-month growth rate slowed slightly from 0.4% to 0.3%; the core CPI growth rate slowed from 3.8% to 3.7% year-on-year.

Analysts pointed out that CPI energy continued to rise year on year in March. The price of Brent crude oil futures reached a high level of 90 US dollars/barrel for the first time since October last year, and surged 18% since this year. In addition, prices of other raw materials such as copper, aluminum, and cocoa have also risen sharply. The rise in housing-related items, insurance costs, and investment management expenses will also lead to a rebound in super-core inflation data, so it is probably unlikely that they want to see inflation fall to the Fed's target level in the short term. The prospects for the Fed's interest rate cut in June will still be highly uncertain.

In terms of financial events, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo delivered a speech; Federal Reserve Governor Bauman delivered a speech on Basel's capital requirements.

In terms of financial reports,$Delta Air Lines (DAL.US)$Earnings will be announced before the market today.

Thursday April 11th

Keywords: China's CPI, PPI; US PPI, number of initial jobless claims; minutes of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting

On Thursday, in terms of economic data, the US will announce the March PPI, the number of jobless claims at the beginning of the week ending April 6, and the EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending April 5; China will announce the March CPI and PPI.

Due to factors such as increased consumer demand during the Spring Festival, China's CPI rose 0.7% year on year, the first correction in half a year. It rose 1.0% month-on-month, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. However, industrial production during the Spring Festival holiday is in the traditional low season, and PPI slowed at an accelerated pace, down 2.7% year on year and 0.2% month on month.

Wang Hao, a macro analyst at Guojun, believes that the pattern of supply being stronger than demand continues. The PMI ex-factory price index and the purchase price index for major raw materials fell and rose in March, and the PPI growth rate is expected to remain basically the same year-on-year in March.

In terms of financial events, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the March monetary policy meeting. New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams and Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goulsby will deliver speeches.

After the March non-farm payrolls report was released, the market's hopes for the “first drop in June” were gradually dashed. According to the CME Federal Reserve's observation tool, the market currently expects the probability that the Fed will complete its first interest rate cut at the June meeting this year has dropped sharply to 46.1%. Investors are now hoping that the minutes of the March meeting of the Federal Reserve released on the same day and the speeches of many senior Federal Reserve officials will bring more clear clues.

In terms of IPOs, US stocks$PACS Group (PACS.US)$It will go on sale today.

Friday April 12th

Keywords: China's import/export annual rate, trade balance; University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index; Komo Financial Report

On Friday, in terms of economic data, the US will announce the monthly rate of the import price index for March, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for April, and the inflation rate forecast for the first year of April; China will announce the annual import/export rate for March and the trade balance for March.

In 2024, China's foreign trade achieved a good start. In January-February, exports in US dollars increased 7.1% year on year. The volume of trade imports and exports reached a record high for the same period in RMB. Imports increased 3.5% year on year in US dollars; the trade surplus was US$125.16 billion, an increase of 20.5%. Imports and exports to ASEAN, the US, and South Korea have all increased, and imports and exports from private enterprises have rebounded sharply.

Wang Hao, a macro analyst at Guojun, believes that external demand continues to pick up slightly, which is comparable to a marginal improvement in the country's export momentum, but due to the high base effect, the year-on-year export growth rate is expected to slow down in March. Domestic PMI production and imports rebounded in March, compounded by a rise in commodity prices. Import growth is expected to slow and the trade surplus to narrow in March.

In terms of financial events, Boston Federal Reserve Chairman Collins delivered a speech at the New York Economic Club, and Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic delivered a speech.

In terms of financial reports,$JPMorgan (JPM.US)$,$Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US)$,$Citigroup (C.US)$Wait for large financial institutions to release financial reports before the market today.

The decline in the performance of large Wall Street banks in the last quarter is related to a special assessment by the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) after the US regional banking crisis last year.

J.P. Morgan achieved net profit of 9.307 billion US dollars in the fourth quarter, down 29% and 15%, respectively; Wells Fargo achieved net profit of 3.446 billion US dollars for the quarter, down 40% from the previous quarter; while Citigroup's net loss for the quarter was US$1,839 million, a loss compared to the previous quarter.

In terms of IPOs, US stocks$YY Group (YYGH.US)$,$UL Solutions Inc (ULS.US)$It will be available today.

Good luck with your investments in the new week!

editor/tolk