Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. Just Beat EPS By 22%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. Just Beat EPS By 22%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
It's been a good week for Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ:CALM) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 6.7% to US$62.80. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$703m were what the analysts expected, Cal-Maine Foods surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$3.00 per share, an impressive 22% above what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
NasdaqGS:CALM Earnings and Revenue Growth April 5th 2024
After the latest results, the consensus from Cal-Maine Foods' twin analysts is for revenues of US$1.97b in 2025, which would reflect an uncomfortable 17% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 56% to US$2.45 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.95b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.16 in 2025. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a substantial gain in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.
The consensus price target rose 6.2% to US$57.33, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 14% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 19% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.7% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Cal-Maine Foods is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Cal-Maine Foods' earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have analyst estimates for Cal-Maine Foods going out as far as 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 4 warning signs for Cal-Maine Foods (1 is significant!) that you need to be mindful of.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對於加州緬因食品公司(納斯達克股票代碼:CALM)的股東來說,這是美好的一週,因爲該公司剛剛發佈了最新的季度業績,股價上漲了6.7%,至62.80美元。總體而言,這似乎是一個可信的業績——儘管分析師預期的收入爲7.03億美元,但加州緬因食品卻驚訝地實現了每股3.00美元的(法定)利潤,比預期高出22%。根據結果,分析師更新了他們的盈利模式,很高興知道他們是否認爲公司的前景發生了巨大變化,或者業務是否照舊。我們認爲,讀者會發現分析師對明年最新(法定)業績後的預測很有趣。
納斯達克GS:2024年4月5日收益和收入增長保持平穩
最新業績公佈後,加州緬因食品的雙分析師一致認爲,2025年收入爲19.7億美元,這將反映出與去年業績相比,收入下降了17%,令人不安。預計同期每股法定收益將下降56%,至2.45美元。然而,在最新業績公佈之前,分析師曾預計2025年收入爲19.5億美元,每股收益(EPS)爲2.16美元。儘管收入估計並沒有真正改變,但我們可以看到每股收益的預期已大幅提高,這表明分析師在最新業績公佈後變得更加看漲。
共識目標股價上漲6.2%,至57.33美元,這表明更高的收益預期也流向了該股的估值。
現在從大局來看,我們理解這些預測的方法之一是了解它們與過去的業績和行業增長估計相比如何。我們要強調的是,收入預計將逆轉,預計到2025年底年化下降14%。與過去五年19%的歷史增長相比,這是一個顯著的變化。相比之下,我們的數據表明,總體而言,同一行業的其他公司的收入預計每年將增長2.7%。因此,儘管預計其收入將萎縮,但這種陰雲並沒有帶來一線希望——預計加州緬因食品將落後於整個行業。
底線
對我們來說,最大的收穫是共識的每股收益上調,這表明人們對Cal-Maine Foods明年盈利潛力的看法明顯改善。從好的方面來看,收入估計沒有重大變化;儘管預測表明它們的表現將比整個行業差。目標股價也大幅提高,分析師顯然認爲該業務的內在價值正在提高。
考慮到這一點,我們仍然認爲該業務的長期發展軌跡對於投資者來說更爲重要。分析師估計,Cal-Maine Foods的上市時間將持續到2026年,你可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
我們不想在遊行隊伍中下太多雨,但我們還發現了 Cal-Maine Foods 的 4 個警告標誌(1 個很重要!)你需要注意的。
對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂嗎?請直接聯繫我們。或者,也可以發送電子郵件至編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
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