GAC GROUP(2238.HK):PHEV COULD BE A NEW CATALYST
GAC GROUP(2238.HK):PHEV COULD BE A NEW CATALYST
We estimate GAC Group (GAC)'s net profit to rise 22% YoY to RMB5.4bn in FY24E, as Aion's upscale attempt, cost reduction and overseas expansion could help narrow its loss. We are of the view that Aion needs quality growth in FY24E to lay out foundation for long-term development. We project Trumpchi's PHEV sales volume to triple YoY, which may be overlooked by investors.
我們估計，廣汽集團（GAC）在 FY24E 中的淨利潤將同比增長22％，達到54億元人民幣，這是由於Aion的高檔嘗試、成本削減和海外擴張可能有助於縮小虧損。我們認爲，Aion 需要 FY24E 的質量增長，爲長期發展奠定基礎。我們預計傳祺的插電式混合動力汽車銷量將同比增長三倍，這可能會被投資者忽視。
Upmarket, cost reduction and overseas expansion as keys to Aion in FY24E. We maintain our FY24E sales volume forecast of 0.5mn units for Aion, despite its aggressive target of 0.65mn units. We are still of the view that Aion should spend more resources on Hyper in FY24E to build brand image and lift margins, as its sales volume and margins are still vulnerable, based on its 4Q23 financials. We expect sales volume growth in FY24E to come from overseas markets. Management targets 20% cost reduction for batteries in FY24E. We project Aion's GPM to widen by 2ppts YoY in FY24E.
在 FY24E 中，高檔市場、降低成本和海外擴張是 Aion 的關鍵。儘管Aion的目標是650萬輛，但我們維持了Aion的 FY24E 銷量預測，即50萬輛。我們仍然認爲，Aion應該在 FY24E 中將更多資源花在Hyper上，以樹立品牌形象和提高利潤率，因爲根據其23年第四季度的財務狀況，其銷量和利潤率仍然脆弱。我們預計，FY24E 的銷量增長將來自海外市場。管理層的目標是將 FY24E 中的電池成本降低 20%。我們預計，在 FY24E 中，永恒之塔的毛利率將同比增長2個百分點。
PHEV sales volume may triple in FY24E. After launching three new PHEV models priced above RMB200,000 last year, Trumpchi plans to roll out more PHEV models likely priced RMB100,000-200,000 in FY24E. We project its PHEV sales volume to triple YoY in FY24E, taking up more than 20% of Trumpchi's sales. We estimate Trumpchi's NP (excluding GAC Research Institute) to be about RMB600mn in FY23. Such profitability with widening GPM in 4Q23 means the margins for PHEVs could be better than we had expected. We project Trumpchi's FY24E NP to be similar as FY23.
在 FY24E 中，插電式混合動力汽車的銷量可能會增加三倍。繼去年推出了三款售價超過20萬元人民幣的新款插電式混合動力汽車車型之後，傳祺計劃推出更多售價可能在10萬至20萬元人民幣的 FY24E 插電式混合動力汽車車型。我們預計，在 FY24E 中，其插電式混合動力汽車的銷量將同比增長三倍，佔傳祺銷量的20％以上。我們估計，在23財年，傳祺的國民產值（不包括廣汽研究所）約爲6億元人民幣。這種盈利能力以及23年第四季度GPM的擴大意味着插電式混合動力汽車的利潤率可能會好於我們的預期。我們預計傳祺的 FY24E NP 將與 23 財年類似。
Equity income to remain flat in FY24E without restructuring burden. We project GAC Toyota's sales volume to decline 13% YoY to 0.83mn units in FY24E amid the Camry transition. We expect discounts for the new Camry to widen from 2H24. On the other hand, GAC Toyota's FY23 earnings were more resilient than our prior expectation (the second highest net margin in its history). The loss and associated restructuring costs at GAC Mitsubishi will no longer drag down GAC's equity income in FY24E, which should be enough to offset the profit declines in other joint ventures and associates in FY24E.
在 FY24E 中，股票收益將保持平穩，沒有重組負擔。我們預計，在凱美瑞過渡期間，廣汽豐田的 FY24E 銷量將同比下降13％，至83萬輛。我們預計，新款凱美瑞的折扣將從24下半年開始擴大。另一方面，廣汽豐田23財年的收益比我們先前的預期更具彈性（這是其歷史上第二高的淨利潤率）。廣汽三菱的虧損和相關的重組成本將不再拖累廣汽在 FY24E 中的股權收益，這應該足以抵消 FY24E 中其他合資企業和子公司利潤的下降。
Valuation/Key risks. Accordingly, we cut our FY24-25E net profits by 15% and 20% to RMB5.4bn and RMB4.8bn, respectively. We use sum-of-the- parts (SOTP) valuation to factor in Aion's planned spin-off. We value Aion HK$3.3 per share, based on 0.7x (unchanged) our average FY24-25E revenue estimates. We value HK$2.2 per share for JVs and associates based on 3x our average FY24-25E EPS . We maintain BUY rating and lower target price slightly from HK$6.00 to HK$5.50. Key risks to our rating and target price include lower sales volume and margins especially for Aion and a sector de-rating.
估值/主要風險。因此，我們將 FY24-25E 的淨利潤分別削減了15％和20％，至54億元人民幣和48億元人民幣。我們使用零件總和（SOTP）估值來考慮Aion的分拆計劃。根據我們 FY24-25E 平均收入估計值的0.7倍（不變），我們對Aion的每股估值爲3.3港元。根據我們 FY24-25E 平均每股收益的3倍，我們對合資企業和員工的每股估值爲2.2港元。我們維持買入評級，目標價從6.00港元小幅下調至5.50港元。我們評級和目標價格的主要風險包括銷量和利潤率的降低，尤其是Aion的銷量和利潤率下降以及行業評級下調。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。