occurrences
The company achieved operating income of 1.63 billion yuan (+6.9% YoY) and realized net profit of 210 million yuan (-4.0% YoY) in 2023. 2023Q4 achieved operating income of 440 million yuan (+4.6% YoY) and net profit to mother of 60 million yuan (-33.5% YoY).
Key points of investment
Store expansion is growing strongly, and group meal revenue is under slight pressure
By region in 23 years: East China region/South China region/Central China region/North China region/North China region/others achieved 13.5/1.2/1.0/0.5/0.04 billion yuan respectively, +2.4%/+29.8%/+60.5%/+21.8%/-16.4% year-on-year. 1) Stores: Franchise stores in East China/South China/Central China/North China increased net by 216/264/92/-2 respectively to 3345/727/803/168, exceeding expectations throughout the year, with a net increase of 570, bringing the total number of stores to 5043; 2) Store efficiency: Single store revenue in '23 fell 2.5% compared to '22, due to weak demand, increased competition in the breakfast scene, and the growth rate of stores in regions with inefficient stores exceeding the overall growth rate. to increase the turnover of a single store .
Channel division in 23 years: Franchise sales/direct store sales/group meal channel sales/others achieved revenue of 12.5/0.3/3.3/0.2 billion yuan respectively, +9.9%/-16.6%/-0.6%/-5.1% compared with the same period last year. The group meal business was affected by the high base in '22, and the current revenue was slightly pressured. Among them, South China/North China/Central China group meal revenue increased 63%/67%/over 300% year on year, and the share of the group meal business in the three major regions increased to 15.5% (+8pct year over year).
By product in 23 years: Noodle rice/fillings/outsourced foods/packaging and accessories/franchisee management achieved revenue of 6.6/4.1/3.9/100.60 million yuan respectively, +0.6%/+4.0%/+9.6%/+28.1% over the same period last year. The fillings category performed well for 23 years.
Profitability is under pressure, and expense ratios have improved year over year
The gross profit margin for 23 years was 26.3% (-1.4pct), and the net profit margin was 13.2% (y-1.2pct). Sales expense ratio 5.6% (YoY -0.1 pct); Management Expense Ratio 7.3% (YoY +0.04pct); R&D Expense Ratio 0.7% (YoY +0.2pct); Financial Expense Ratio -2.3% (YoY -0.2pct). The cost rate showed a year-on-year improvement trend.
Mergers and acquisitions in the industry are piling up, and gross margin may rise steadily
The company included the “Steamed Whole Taste” brand and its franchise chain stores, and will continue to focus on active industry integration and development opportunities in the future. Raw material costs are expected to decline, and the company will adopt a rolling price lock strategy to determine that gross margin will rise steadily in the future.
Profit forecasting and valuation
The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is estimated at 1,799, 20.28 billion yuan, and 2.290 billion yuan, respectively; net profit attributable to mother is 235 million yuan, 2.72 million yuan, and 319 million yuan, respectively; maintaining the purchase rating.
Risk warning
Risks such as fluctuations in raw material prices and insufficient production capacity demand.