Affirm's Growth Prospects Tempered by Valuation and Expense Hurdles: Analyst
Affirm's Growth Prospects Tempered by Valuation and Expense Hurdles: Analyst
Needham analyst Kyle Peterson initiated coverage on Affirm Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:AFRM) with a Hold rating.
尼德姆分析師凱爾·彼得森開始對Affirm Holdings Inc（納斯達克股票代碼：AFRM）進行報道，評級爲持有。
Affirm is a leading provider of "buy now, pay later" (BNPL) services, with a broad range of product offerings and notable partnerships, most notably with Amazon.Com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Shopify Inc (NYSE:SHOP), the analyst noted.
該分析師指出，Affirm是 “先買後付”（BNPL）服務的領先提供商，擁有廣泛的產品和重要的合作伙伴關係，最值得注意的是與亞馬遜公司（納斯達克股票代碼：AMZN）和Shopify Inc（紐約證券交易所代碼：SHOP）的合作伙伴關係。
While Peterson flagged Affirm's diverse product suite and expects the market for BNPL services to generate healthy growth, he rated the stock Hold due to a combination of valuation (~32x his fiscal 2026 EPS estimate), elevated stock-based compensation expense (46% of LTM revenue), and a growing mix share of interest and other lending-related income (~65% of revenue), which he expect to make significant multiple expansion challenging.
儘管彼得森指出了Affirm的多元化產品套件並預計BNPL服務市場將實現健康增長，但他對股票持有進行了評級，原因是估值（約爲2026財年每股收益估計值的32倍）、股票薪酬支出增加（佔LTM收入的46％）以及利息和其他貸款相關收入的混合份額增加（約佔收入的65％），他預計這將給重大的多重擴張帶來挑戰。
Also Read: Is Affirm Poised for a Comeback? Analyst Highlights Opportunity in Recent Dip
另請閱讀: Affirm 有望捲土重來嗎？分析師強調近期下跌中的機會
Peterson could become more constructive on the shares in case of a pull-back or if merchant and card network revenue growth becomes a larger piece of the story.
如果出現回調或商戶和信用卡網絡收入增長成爲故事中更重要的部分，彼得森可能會對股票變得更具建設性。
The analyst noted Affirm as a long-term winner in the domestic BNPL space, a large and growing market with a projected 20%+ CAGR over the next 5-10 years based on industry market research reports.
該分析師指出，Affirm是國內BNPL領域的長期贏家，這是一個龐大且不斷增長的市場，根據行業市場研究報告，預計未來5-10年的複合年增長率將超過20％。
In addition, there are notable opportunities for Affirm to scale internationally, especially given the success other BNPL providers, such as Klarna (private), have had in international markets, per the analyst.
此外，分析師表示，Affirm有顯著的國際擴張機會，特別是考慮到Klarna（私人）等其他BNPL提供商在國際市場上取得的成功。
Peterson noted that Affirm's technology-related revenue (merchant and card network) should be valued at a higher multiple than its lending-related revenue, given the absence of credit risk and greater capital efficiency.
彼得森指出，鑑於沒有信用風險和更高的資本效率，Affirm的技術相關收入（商戶和信用卡網絡）的估值應高於其貸款相關收入的倍數。
However, he added that much of Affirm's growth has been due to outsized lending-related revenue (interest income, gain on sale, and servicing) in recent quarters.
但是，他補充說，Affirm的增長在很大程度上歸因於最近幾個季度的巨額貸款相關收入（利息收入、銷售收益和服務）。
Lending-related income is ~65% of revenue today, which he noted will cause investors to scrutinize Affirm's profitability-based valuation metrics increasingly.
貸款相關收入約佔當今收入的65％，他指出，這將促使投資者越來越多地審查Affirm基於盈利能力的估值指標。
Stock-based compensation equaled 46% of Affirm's revenue in calendar year 2023, which Peterson estimates is the highest among a peer group of digital lending and FinTech companies.
股票薪酬相當於Affirm在2023日曆年收入的46％，彼得森估計，這是同行數字貸款和金融科技公司中最高的。
While Peterson noted stock-based comp as a cash-efficient way to hire and retain quality employees, he expects this to be a drag on the valuation, especially since the related dilution is likely to be ongoing, with Affirm establishing an annual dilution target of <=5% in the near-term and <=3% over the medium term. This is a long-term headwind for the stock.
彼得森指出，股票補償是僱用和留住高素質員工的一種節省現金的方式，但他預計這將拖累估值，尤其是因爲相關的稀釋可能會持續下去，Affirm將短期內的年度攤薄目標定爲
The analyst expects the headwinds above to keep the shares range-bound over the next 12 months.
分析師預計，上述不利因素將使股價在未來12個月內保持區間波動。
Affirm stock gained 202% in the last 12 months. Investors can gain exposure to the stock via Tidal ETF Trust II Pinnacle Focused Opportunities ETF (NYSE:FCUS) and Amplify ETF Trust Amplify Online Retail ETF (NYSE:IBUY).
在過去的12個月中，Affirm的股票上漲了202％。投資者可以通過Tidal ETF Trust II Pinnacle聚焦機會ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：FCUS）和Amplify ETF Trust Amplify在線零售ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：IBUY）獲得股票敞口。
Price Action: AFRM shares traded lower by 0.36% at $33.97 on he last check Wednesday.
價格走勢：在週三的最後一次支票中，AFRM股價下跌0.36％，至33.97美元。
Also Read: Affirm and Robinhood Make It To Top FinTech Stocks for 2024 – Analyst Says It Promises Growth for Average Americans
另請閱讀：Affirm和Robinhood躋身2024年的金融科技股票榜首——分析師表示，它有望爲普通美國人帶來增長
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。