Key points of investment
The performance was in line with expectations, and both revenue and profit increased
In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 1,881 billion yuan, up 10.30% year on year; net profit to mother was 51 million yuan, up 10.72% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 43 million yuan, up 43.99% year on year.
There has been a steady increase in chassis parts and air conditioning compressors. The rapid increase in aluminum alloy lightweight growth in the company's revenue growth was mainly due to the steady rise in the high-precision chassis parts business and the rise in mass production in the aluminum alloy lightweight sector. Among them, the chassis parts business achieved revenue of 1,285 billion yuan, an increase of 6.97% year on year by broadening product lines and expanding overseas markets; the aluminum alloy lightweight business rapidly climbed into mass production with the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles, achieving revenue of 127 million yuan, a sharp increase of 182.12% year on year; the air conditioning compressor business followed the recovery of the commercial vehicle market and achieved revenue of 443 million yuan, an increase of 3.68% year on year.
The existing business continues to expand customers, gradually release production capacity, and support future development 1) Chassis parts business: The company is actively exploring overseas markets, gradually releasing mass production of existing overseas orders, and securing new gear projects for Nexteer Poland to supply BMW series models, etc. 2) Aluminum alloy lightweight business: Acquired new products such as integrated valve terminals and control arms from BYD for more models; the first production line has been mass-produced in Yancheng, Jiangsu, the second production line has been installed, and the third and fourth production lines are under procurement and construction. 3) Air conditioning compressor business: The modified integrated thermal management system production line has been put into operation; the new integrated thermal management system production line and automatic electric compressor assembly line are under construction as planned; the first phase of the plant renovation and expansion project has been completed and put into use, and the second phase of the project is progressing according to plan. As the company's existing business continues to expand customers and production capacity is gradually released, the company's future performance is expected to be continuously supported.
Chassis parts are the same as screw production processes. Humanoid robots open up growth space. Planetary roller screws are one of the core components of humanoid robots. According to our estimates, the global planetary roller screw market is expected to reach 26.8 billion yuan in 2030. The company actively lays out the humanoid robot industry chain and develops humanoid robot screw products. The company has been rooted in the automobile chassis parts industry for more than 20 years, and the accumulated production process is highly homologous to the production process of screw products. Currently, the relevant components developed by the company in cooperation with customers are in the sample stage. If they are officially targeted later, it is expected to open up room for future growth.
Profit forecasting and valuation
We expect the company's net profit to be 0.6, 130, and 220 million yuan respectively in 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 19%, 117%, and 71%, respectively. The CAGR is about 93%, and the corresponding PE is 93, 43, and 25 times, respectively. Considering the company's layout and development potential in the field of humanoid robots, the rating was raised to a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
New energy vehicle sales fell short of expectations, production capacity climbed short of expectations, and customer growth fell short of expectations