CHINA COMMUNICATIONS CONSTRUCTION(1800.HK):NET PROFIT BEAT WITH ROBUST OVERSEAS GROWTH
CHINA COMMUNICATIONS CONSTRUCTION(1800.HK):NET PROFIT BEAT WITH ROBUST OVERSEAS GROWTH
China Communications Construction
中國交通建設
Net profit beat with robust overseas growth
海外強勁增長，淨利潤超過預期
CCCC reported robust 2023 results, with revenue up by 5.1% YoY to research RMB755,645mn and net profit up by 22.3% YoY to arrive at RMB24,734m, beating our and consensus estimates. The robust net profit growth was mainly buttressed by the 0.9ppt gross margin expansion and lower effective tax rate. The overseas markets keep growing robustly. In 2023, overseas sales soared by 17.9% YoY, accounting for 15.3% of total sales. The amount of overseas new contract reached RMB319,746m, representing a 47.5% YoY growth which accounts for 18% of overall new contract. The net operating cash was RMB12,074m, representing a 960% YoY growth from RMB1.139m in 2022. We slightly trim our revenue estimates by 4.5% in 2024-2025E, but revise up the net profit estimates by 15.2% and 14%, respectively. We roll over the unchanged 4.6x 24E P/E to derive the new TP of 7.69. Maintain BUY rating.
CCCC公佈了強勁的2023年業績，收入同比增長5.1％，研究人民幣7.55645億元，淨利潤同比增長22.3％，達到247.34億元人民幣，超過了我們和共識的預期。強勁的淨利潤增長主要是由毛利率增長0.9個百分點和較低的有效稅率支撐的。海外市場繼續強勁增長。2023年，海外銷售額同比飆升17.9％，佔總銷售額的15.3％。海外新合同金額達到人民幣3197.46億元，同比增長47.5％，佔新合同總額的18％。淨運營現金爲人民幣120.74億元，較2022年的113.9億元人民幣同比增長960％。我們在2024-2025E年的收入預期略微下調了4.5％，但將淨利潤預期分別上調了15.2％和14％。我們將延續不變的4.6倍24E市盈率，得出7.69的新目標價。維持買入評級。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Sales and net profit increased by 5.1% and 22.3% YoY in 2023, with 4Q23 contributing the highest net profit growth, achieving 11.8% YoY and 21.2% QoQ growth. Gross margin expanded 0.9ppt to 12.5%, mainly driven by high gross margin of infrastructure design (18.5%) and dredging (13.3%). The income tax expense decreased by 10.1% in 2023, with effective tax rate declining from 21.5% in 2022 to 17% in 2023, which helped to boost net profit growth. Operating cash flow also improved from RMB1.139m in 2022 to RMB12,074m in 2023, suggesting the significant improvements in company's cash collection ability.
2023年，銷售額和淨利潤同比增長5.1％和22.3％，其中4季度貢獻了最高的淨利潤增長，同比增長11.8％，環比增長21.2％。毛利率增長0.9個百分點至12.5％，這主要是由基礎設施設計（18.5％）和疏浚（13.3％）的高毛利率推動的。所得稅支出在2023年下降了10.1％，有效稅率從2022年的21.5％下降到2023年的17％，這有助於促進淨利潤增長。運營現金流也從2022年的11.39億元增加到2023年的人民幣120.74億元，這表明公司的現金收款能力顯著提高。
Robust growth in overseas market. In 2023, infrastructure construction, infrastructure design, dredging and other business accounted for 88.4%, 6.3%, 7.1% and 2.6% of total revenue respectively. In terms of geographic locations, the overseas sales contributed 15.3% of sales with 17.9% YoY growth, while domestic market only increased by 3.3% YoY. The new contracts in 2023 amounted to RMB1,753,215m, of which urban construction contributed 45.2%. Overseas new contracts increased by 47.5%, achieving a robust growth of 47.5%.
海外市場強勁增長。2023年，基礎設施建設、基礎設施設計、疏浚和其他業務分別佔總收入的88.4％、6.3％、7.1％和2.6％。就地理位置而言，海外銷售額佔銷售額的15.3％，同比增長17.9％，而國內市場僅同比增長3.3％。2023年的新合同總額爲人民幣17.532.15億元，其中城市建設佔45.2％。海外新合同增長了47.5％，實現了47.5％的強勁增長。
Strong 4Q23 results offset underperforming 3Q23. In 3Q23, the company was influenced by the delayed payments from local government, which results in postponing in some infrastructure development. We reckon the special refinancing bond program will encourage more capital injections and thus benefit CRCC.
強勁的二零二三年第四季度業績抵消了表現不佳的3季度業績。在23年第三季度，該公司受到地方政府延遲付款的影響，這導致一些基礎設施的開發推遲。我們認爲，特別再融資債券計劃將鼓勵更多的資本注入，從而使CRC受益。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Slower-than-expected cash collection process from local governments due to tight budget.
由於預算緊張，地方政府的現金收款過程比預期的要慢。
Valuation
估價
We slightly trim our revenue estimates by 4.5% in 2023-2026E, but revise up the net profit estimates by 15.2% and 14%, respectively. We roll over the unchanged 4.6x24E P/E to derive the new TP of 7.69. Retain BUY rating.
我們在2023-2026年度的收入預期略微下調了4.5％，但將淨利潤預期分別上調了15.2％和14％。我們將延續不變的4.6x24E市盈率，得出新的目標價爲7.69。保持買入評級。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。