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中国国贸(600007):业绩靓丽分红丰厚 租金同增出租率稳定

China International Trade (600007): Beautiful performance, generous dividends, and stable rental rates with rising rents

海通證券 ·  Apr 3

Revenue and net profit to mother both increased, and dividends were generous. In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 3.95 billion yuan, an increase of 14.9% over the previous year, and realized net profit of 1,259 billion yuan, an increase of 12.8% over the previous year. In 2023, the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.8 yuan (tax included) per share to all shareholders. Furthermore, in order to return shareholders' long-term trust and support for the company, the company plans to distribute a special cash dividend of 0.5 yuan (tax included) to all shareholders. The above two items together will pay a cash dividend of 1.3 yuan (tax included) per share. The dividend ratio will be raised significantly to 104%. The company's dividend rate is 5.26% based on the closing price of April 2, 2024.

Property rental and management revenue and hotel operating income both increased. In 2023, the company's revenue was divided into property leasing and management and hotel operations. Among them, in 2023, the company's property leasing and management revenue was $3.385 billion, up 6.84% year on year, and gross margin was 66.41%, down 0.12 percentage points from 2022; the company's hotel operating revenue was 569 million yuan, up 107.41% year on year, and gross margin was 8.09%, up 67.06 percentage points from 2022.

Average rents have risen, and occupancy rates have remained stable. By project, in 2023, the rental income of the company's office buildings, shopping malls, apartments, hotels and other buildings was 1,561 billion yuan, 1,275 million yuan, 183 million yuan, 569 million yuan, and 366 million yuan respectively, accounting for 39.47%, 32.25%, 4.64%, 14.39%, and 9.25%, respectively.

In 2023, the average rent of the company's office buildings was 638 yuan/square meter/month, up 11 yuan/square meter/month from 2022, and the average occupancy rate was 95.9%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous year; the average rent in the mall was 1,279 yuan/square meter/month, up 120 yuan/m2/month from 2022, the average occupancy rate was 98.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous year; the average rental rate of apartments was 370 yuan/square meter/month, down 6 yuan/m2/month from 2022, and the average occupancy rate was 85.9%. The year-on-year increase was 12.6 percent.

The gross margin increased, the cost rate decreased, and the structure was secure with sufficient capital. In 2023, the company's gross margin was 58.01%, up 1.48 percentage points year on year; the three expenses ratio was 6.31%, down 0.65 percentage points from 2022. The company has sufficient capital in hand. By the end of 2023, the company's monetary capital was 4,089 billion yuan, an increase of 16.98% over the previous year. Due to the company's repayment of 510 million yuan of bank loans in 2023 and an increase in profits due to operational improvements, the debt pressure was further reduced. As of the end of 2023, the company's total EBITDA debt ratio was 1.37X, and the interest guarantee multiplier was 24.61X.

Investment advice: Maintain an “better than the market” rating. In the future, the company will seize strategic opportunities such as Beijing's cultivation and construction of an international consumer center city, focusing on the layout of Beijing's traditional business district, promoting the transformation and upgrading of the Guomao business district, strengthening technological empowerment, and further enhancing the company's core competitiveness. According to the company's own forecast, in 2024, it will achieve operating income of 3.95 billion yuan, costs and expenses of 2.02 billion yuan, taxes and surcharges of 370 million yuan, and total profit of 1.56 billion yuan. We expect the company's 2024-2025 EPS to be 1.22 yuan and 1.27 yuan respectively. The company will be given a reasonable value range of 24.31-25.52 yuan for 2024 to 20-21XPE, maintaining the company's “superior to the market” rating.

Risk warning: Demand for office buildings is insufficient, and consumer demand is not strong.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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