Farmer Sentiment Improves as Interest Rate Expectations Shift
Farmer Sentiment Improves as Interest Rate Expectations Shift
WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind., April 2, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- U.S. farmers' outlook improved in March as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer index increased to 114, marking a 3-point rise from February. While the Index of Current Conditions fell by 2 points to 101, the Index of Future Expectations climbed to 120, up by 5 points from February. The disparity between current and future indexes was primarily influenced by farmers' perceptions of a financial downturn taking place in the past year, coupled with some expectations for improvement over the next 12 months. The March survey was conducted from March 11-15, 2024.
印第安納州西拉斐特，2024年4月2日 /PRNewswire/ — 普渡大學/芝加哥商品交易所集團農業經濟晴雨表指數升至114，較2月份上漲了3個百分點，美國農民的前景在3月份有所改善。當前狀況指數下跌2點至101點，而未來預期指數則攀升至120點，較2月份上漲5點。當前和未來指數之間的差異主要受農民對過去一年金融衰退的看法，以及對未來12個月改善的一些預期的影響。3 月份的調查於 2024 年 3 月 11 日至 15 日進行。
"Producers' expectations for interest rate changes have shifted, which could help explain why producers look for financial conditions to improve," said James Mintert, the barometer's principal investigator and director of Purdue University's Center for Commercial Agriculture.
該晴雨表首席研究員兼普渡大學商業農業中心主任詹姆斯·明特說：“生產商對利率變動的預期已經發生了變化，這可能有助於解釋生產商爲何希望改善財務狀況。”
This month 48% of respondents said they expect a decline in the U.S. prime interest rate over the next year, up from 35% in December. Just one-third (32%) foresee an increase, compared to 43% last month. Only 20% of respondents this month identified the risk of rising interest rates as a primary concern, a decrease from the 24% recorded December 2023. High input costs continue to be producers' No. 1 concern, with 36% of respondents expressing worry.
本月，48％的受訪者表示，他們預計明年美國最優惠利率將從12月的35％下降。只有三分之一（32％）的人預計會增長，而上個月爲43％。本月只有20％的受訪者將利率上升的風險確定爲主要問題，低於2023年12月的24％。高投入成本仍然是生產商最關心的問題，36％的受訪者表示擔憂。
The Farm Capital Investment Index increased by 7 points this month, indicating growing optimism among producers about making large investments. Producers who said it is a good time for a large investment rose to 15%, up 11% from the start of the year. This optimism is fueled by producers who pointed to strong cash flows on their farms, coupled with higher dealer inventories for farm machinery. However, some producers still feel hesitant to invest due to concerns about high costs for machinery and construction and high interest rates.
農業資本投資指數本月上漲了7點，這表明生產商對進行大規模投資越來越樂觀。表示現在是進行大規模投資的好時機的生產商升至15％，較年初增長了11％。生產商指出，他們的農場現金流強勁，加上經銷商的農用機械庫存增加，這加劇了這種樂觀情緒。但是，由於擔心機械和建築的高成本以及高利率，一些生產商仍然對投資猶豫不決。
Producers displayed a more optimistic short-term outlook on farmland values in March, with the Short-Term Farmland Values Index rising to 124, a 9-point increase from the previous month. This month, 38% of producers expect farmland values to increase in the coming year, compared to 31% in January and February.
3月份，生產商對農田價值表現出更爲樂觀的短期前景，短期農田價值指數升至124，較上個月上漲9點。本月，38％的生產者預計來年農田價值將增加，而1月和2月的這一比例爲31％。
"Factors contributing to this optimism included non-farm investor demand, inflation expectations and strong cash flows. An improved interest rate outlook might have been a factor as well, although producers didn't point to that explicitly in this month's survey," Mintert said.
“促成這種樂觀情緒的因素包括非農投資者的需求、通貨膨脹預期和強勁的現金流。利率前景的改善也可能是一個因素，儘管生產商在本月的調查中沒有明確指出這一點，” 明特說。
More farmers this month (24%) said they believe farmland prices will go up because of inflation expectations compared to last month (18%). There was also a slight increase in producers citing strong cash flows (8% in March versus 6% in February) as a reason, and a modest decline in the number of producers who mentioned non-farm investor demand as a major factor influencing the farmland market. However, despite this decline, 57% of producers still consider non-farm investor demand the primary reason for their bullish outlook on farmland values.
本月有更多農民（24％）表示，與上個月（18％）相比，由於通貨膨脹預期，他們認爲農田價格將上漲。生產商也略有增加，理由是現金流強勁（3月份爲8％，2月份爲6％），而將非農投資者需求列爲影響農田市場的主要因素的生產商數量略有下降。但是，儘管有所下降，但仍有57％的生產者認爲非農投資者的需求是他們看漲農田價值的主要原因。
Interest in using farmland for carbon sequestration or solar energy production appears to be increasing. In this month's survey, nearly 1 out of 5 respondents (18%) said they or their landowners had been approached about carbon capture utilization and storage on their farmland. Additionally, 12% of this month's respondents said they had discussions with companies interested in leasing farmland for a solar energy project in the last six months, compared to 10% in February. When it comes to long-term farmland lease rates offered by solar energy companies, 54% of respondents this month said they were offered $1,000 or more per acre, while just over one-fourth (27%) were offered $1,250 or more per acre.
人們對使用農田進行碳封存或太陽能生產的興趣似乎正在增加。在本月的調查中，近五分之一的受訪者（18％）表示，已經就農田的碳捕集利用和封存問題與他們或他們的土地所有者進行了接觸。此外，本月有12％的受訪者表示，在過去六個月中，他們與有興趣爲太陽能項目租賃農田的公司進行了討論，而2月份的這一比例爲10％。就太陽能公司提供的長期農田租賃費率而言，本月有54％的受訪者表示每英畝向他們提供了1,000美元或以上的報價，而略超過四分之一（27％）的受訪者每英畝獲得1,250美元或以上的報價。
The March barometer also revealed that many farmers are concerned about potential government policy changes affecting their farms following this year's elections. Forty-three percent of respondents anticipate more restrictive regulations for agriculture. Additionally, 4 out of 10 (39%) producers expect taxes impacting agriculture to rise.
三月份的晴雨表還顯示，許多農民擔心在今年的選舉之後可能發生的影響農場的政府政策變化。43％的受訪者預計將對農業實行更嚴格的監管。此外，十分之四（39％）的生產者預計影響農業的稅收將增加。
About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture
The Center for Commercial Agriculture was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University's Department of Agricultural Economics, the center's faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today's business environment.
普渡大學商業農業中心簡介
商業農業中心成立於2011年，旨在爲農民提供專業發展和教育計劃。該中心設在普渡大學農業經濟系內，其教職員工制定和執行研究和教育計劃，以滿足當今商業環境中不同的管理需求。
About CME Group
As the world's leading derivatives marketplace, CME Group enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data — empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, agricultural products and metals. The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates one of the world's leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing.
關於芝加哥商品交易所集團
作爲全球領先的衍生品市場，芝加哥商品交易所集團使客戶能夠交易期貨、期權、現金和場外交易市場，優化投資組合和分析數據，從而使全球市場參與者能夠高效地管理風險和抓住機會。芝加哥商品交易所集團交易所根據利率、股票指數、外匯、能源、農產品和金屬提供涵蓋所有主要資產類別的最廣泛的全球基準產品。該公司通過CME Globex平台提供期貨和期權交易，通過BrokerTec提供固定收益交易，在EBS平台上進行外匯交易。此外，它還運營着全球領先的中央交易對手清算提供商之一CME Clearing。
CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec is a trademark of BrokerTec Americas LLC and EBS is a trademark of EBS Group LTD. The S&P 500 Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC ("S&P DJI"). "S&P", "S&P 500", "SPY", "SPX", US 500 and The 500 are trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC; Dow Jones, DJIA and Dow Jones Industrial Average are service and/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. These trademarks have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. Futures contracts based on the S&P 500 Index are not sponsored, endorsed, marketed, or promoted by S&P DJI, and S&P DJI makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.
芝加哥商品交易所集團、環球標誌、芝加哥商品交易所、Globex和E-mini是芝加哥商品交易所的商標。CBOT和芝加哥貿易委員會是芝加哥市貿易委員會的商標。紐約商品交易所、紐約商品交易所和ClearPort是紐約商品交易所公司的商標。COMEX是商品交易所的商標。BrokerTec是商標屬於BrokerTec Americas LLC，EBS是EBS集團有限公司的商標。標普500指數是標普道瓊斯指數有限責任公司（“標普道瓊斯指數”）的產品。“標普”、“標普500指數”、“SPY”、“SPX”、美國500指數和500指數是標準普爾金融服務有限責任公司的商標；道瓊斯、道瓊斯工業平均指數和道瓊斯工業平均指數是道瓊斯商標控股有限責任公司的服務和/或商標。這些商標已獲芝加哥商品交易所許可使用。標普500指數的期貨合約不由標普道瓊斯指數贊助、認可、營銷或推廣，標普道瓊斯指數對投資此類產品的可取性不作任何陳述。所有其他商標均爲其各自所有者的財產。
About Purdue University
Purdue University is a public research institution demonstrating excellence at scale. Ranked among top 10 public universities and with two colleges in the top four in the United States, Purdue discovers and disseminates knowledge with a quality and at a scale second to none. More than 105,000 students study at Purdue across modalities and locations, including nearly 50,000 in person on the West Lafayette campus. Committed to affordability and accessibility, Purdue's main campus has frozen tuition 13 years in a row. See how Purdue never stops in the persistent pursuit of the next giant leap — including its first comprehensive urban campus in Indianapolis, the new Mitchell E. Daniels, Jr. School of Business, and Purdue Computes — at .
普渡大學簡介
普渡大學是一所公共研究機構，在規模上表現出卓越的表現。普渡大學位列前十名公立大學，有兩所學院進入美國前四名，其發現和傳播知識的質量和規模是首屈一指的。超過10.5萬名學生在普渡大學以各種方式和地點學習，其中包括近5萬名學生親自在西拉斐特校區學習。普渡大學的主校區致力於提供可負擔性和可及性，已連續13年凍結學費。看看普渡大學如何堅持不懈地追求下一次巨大飛躍，包括其位於印第安納波利斯的第一個綜合城市校區，即新建的Mitchell E. Daniels, Jr.商學院, 和普渡大學計算機學院—在.
Writer: Erin Robinson
Source: James Mintert
作家：艾琳·羅賓遜
資料來源：詹姆斯·明特特
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。