SINO BIOPHARM(1177.HK):2023 RESULTS MISSED;FOCUS ON FOUR CORE THERAPEUTIC FIELDS
SINO BIOPHARM(1177.HK):2023 RESULTS MISSED;FOCUS ON FOUR CORE THERAPEUTIC FIELDS
2023 results missed; focus on four core therapeutic fields
2023 年業績未達預期；專注於四個核心治療領域
SBP reported a soft set of 2023 results with revenue up 0.7% YoY (excluding discontinued operations), below market consensus ad BOCI estimates. Adjust net profit increased by +1.5% YoY to RMB2.59bn, thanks to dedicated cost control. We expect SBP to return to double-digit growth in 2024 thanks to sales ramp-up after NDRL inclusion of Yilishu and biomilars, growth of anlotinib on label expansion, and NDA approval of PD-L1, partially offset by weak performance of Ganmei. Cut TP to HK$4.2 and maintain BUY rating.
SBP公佈了2023年業績疲軟，收入同比增長0.7％（不包括已終止業務），低於市場共識和中銀國際的預期。得益於專門的成本控制，調整淨利潤同比增長1.5％，達到25.9億元人民幣。我們預計，SBP將在2024年恢復兩位數的增長，這要歸功於在NDRL納入Yilishu和biomilars之後，銷量增加，安羅替尼在標籤擴張中的增長以及 PD-L1 的NDA批准，但部分被甘美的疲軟表現所抵消。將目標價下調至4.2港元並維持買入評級。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
2023 results missed: SBP delivered soft 2023 results with revenue up by 0.7% YoY (excluding discontinued operations), below BOCI estimates, mainly dragged by the disappointing sales of oncology and hepatitis segment. Hepatitis medicines declined by -16.2% YoY in 2H23, which we attribute to the pricing pressure of Tianqing Ganmei due to regional centralized procurement. By segment, oncology/ hepatitis/ respiratory system/ surgery & analgesic/ cardio-cerebral medicine recorded YoY changes of -4.2%/ -0.4%/ +1.4%/ +9.0% /+2.5%, respectively.
2023年業績未達預期：SBP2023年業績疲軟，收入同比增長0.7％（不包括已終止業務），低於中銀國際的預期，這主要是受腫瘤和肝炎板塊銷售令人失望的拖累。2023年下半年，肝炎藥物同比下降了-16.2％，我們將其歸因於區域集中採購導致的天青甘美的定價壓力。按細分市場劃分，腫瘤/肝炎/呼吸系統/手術和鎮痛藥/心腦醫學的同比變化分別爲-4.2％/-0.4％/+1.4％/ +1.4％/ +9.0％/+2.5％。
GPM eroded by 1.8ppts to 81%, while selling and marketing expense ratio optimized by 2.6ppts to 35% on the dedicated cost control, with output per sales staff increasing by 4% YoY in 2023. R&D expense inched up by 6% YoY to RMB4.3bn (or 16.8% of revenue), partially due to the acquisition of F-star, with 77% of expenses devoted to R&D of innovative drugs. SBP expects the R&D expenses ratio to remain at current level in the future. Attributable net profit dropped by 8% YoY to RMB2.33bn in 2023 and adjust net profit increased by +1.5% YoY to RMB2.59bn.
GPM下降了1.8個百分點至81％，而在專用成本控制方面，銷售和營銷費用比率優化了2.6個百分點至35％，2023年每名銷售人員的產出同比增長4％。研發費用同比增長6％，達到43億元人民幣（佔收入的16.8％），部分原因是收購了F-star，其中 77% 的支出專門用於創新藥物的研發。SBP預計，未來研發費用比率將保持在目前的水平。2023年，應占淨利潤同比下降8％，至23.3億元人民幣，調整後的淨利潤同比增長1.5％，至25.9億元人民幣。
More focus on core treatment field: In 2023, SBP disposed of the equity interests in three subsidiaries engaged in commercial distribution business and CT Tongyong. Besides, in Dec 2023, the company adopted the plan for disposal of 67% of interest in CP Qingdao, which engaged in osteoporosis and marine pharmaceuticals, and decreased its shares to 26%. SBP will continue to divest and align its non-core assets in 2024 in order to focus on its four core therapeutic areas, per management.
更多關注核心治療領域：2023年，SBP出售了三家從事商業分銷業務的子公司和CT Tongyong的股權。此外，2023年12月，該公司通過了出售從事骨質疏鬆症和海洋製藥的青島中藥67％權益的計劃，並將其股份減少至26％。管理層表示，SBP將在2024年繼續剝離和調整其非核心資產，以便專注於其四個核心治療領域。
Valuation
估價
Post results, we lowered our 2024/25E revenue by 9%/10%, mainly on disposal revenue from CP Qingdao (like calcitriol and paricalcitol, etc.) and decreasing revenue contribution from Tianqing Ganmei. We expect SBP to deliver 11% YoY topline growth thanks sales ramp-up after NDRL inclusion of Yilishu and biosimilars, growth of anlotinib on label expansion, and PD-L1 approval, partially offset by soft performance of Tianqing Ganmei due to price cut. We expect faster YoY growth in bottom line thanks to dedicated cost control. Cut 12-month DCF based TP to HK$4.2, and maintain BUY (WACC: 10.3% and terminal growth: 2.0% unchanged.)
業績公佈後，我們將2024/25年度的收入下調了9％/10％，這主要是由於CP青島的處置收入（如骨化三醇和帕立骨化醇等）以及天慶感美的收入貢獻減少。我們預計，SBP將實現11％的營收同比增長，這要歸功於在NDRL中納入伊利舒和生物仿製藥、安羅替尼在標籤擴張中的增長以及 PD-L1 批准後，銷售額的增長，但天青幹美因降價而表現疲軟，部分抵消了這一增長。我們預計，得益於專門的成本控制，利潤同比增長更快。將基於差價合約的12個月目標價下調至4.2港元，並維持買入（WACC：10.3％，終端增長：2.0％不變。）
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。