CHINA NATIONAL BUILDING MATERIAL(3323.HK):EARNINGS AHEAD OF GUIDANCE;ATTRACTIVE DIVIDEND YIELD
CHINA NATIONAL BUILDING MATERIAL(3323.HK):EARNINGS AHEAD OF GUIDANCE;ATTRACTIVE DIVIDEND YIELD
Earnings ahead of guidance; attractive dividend yield
收益超出預期；誘人的股息收益率
CNBM's net profit fell 52% YoY to RMB3.86bn in 2023, well above its guidance but in line with our forecast. We expect its earnings to grow 19% YoY in 2024 mainly on the recovery of earnings at its basic building material operations. We cut our 2024/25 earnings forecasts by 21%/23%. Despite this, we reiterate our BUY call with target price raised to HK$5.05 as its shares offer highly attractive dividend yield of 9.2- 12.7% for 2023-25E.
中國建材集團2023年淨利潤同比下降52％，至38.6億元人民幣，遠高於預期，但符合我們的預測。我們預計，其收益將在2024年同比增長19％，這主要是由於其基本建築材料業務的收益回升。我們將2024/25年的收益預期下調了21％/23％。儘管如此，我們還是重申了買入看漲期權，目標價上調至5.05港元，因爲其股票在2023-25年度的股息收益率爲9.2-12.7％，極具吸引力。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
The company's earnings were 36% above its guidance. We believe the company was overly conservative and booked some last minute other income. Nevertheless, it was 1% below our forecast.
該公司的收益比預期高出36％。我們認爲該公司過於保守，並在最後一刻預定了一些其他收入。儘管如此，它比我們的預測低了1％。
The sharp fall in earnings was mainly due to the 38% YoY fall in the total operating profit of cement and concrete segments on lower sales volume and unit gross profit. The operating profit of the new material segment also fell 14% YoY as the ASPs of glass fibre, lithium battery separator and carbon fibre dropped significantly.
收益的急劇下降主要是由於銷量和單位毛利潤下降導致水泥和混凝土板塊的總營業利潤同比下降38％。由於玻璃纖維、鋰電池隔膜和碳纖維的ASP大幅下降，新材料板塊的營業利潤也同比下降了14％。
Despite the sharp fall in earnings, the company raised its dividend payout ratio from 39% in 2022 to 50% in 2023. Its shares now offer attractive 2023 dividend yield of 9.2%, the highest among its major peers.
儘管收益急劇下降，但該公司將其股息支付率從2022年的39％提高到2023年的50％。其股票現在提供誘人的2023年股息收益率，爲9.2％，是主要同行中最高的。
We expect the company's profit to surge 19% YoY in 2024. The key driver is the 18% growth in the total operating profit of the cement and concrete segments on the estimated improvement in unit gross profit for cement and clinker from RMB33/tonne in 2023 to RMB39/tonne in 2024 upon the decline in coal prices. We also expect the operating profit of the new material segment to recover 4% YoY, including the contribution from the newly acquired Carpoly Chemical. The engineering segment should continue to show steady growth.
我們預計該公司的利潤將在2024年同比增長19％。關鍵驅動因素是由於煤炭價格下跌，水泥和混凝土板塊的總營業利潤增長了18％，據估計，水泥和熟料的單位毛利潤將從2023年的33元/噸提高到2024年的39元人民幣。我們還預計，新材料板塊的營業利潤將同比恢復4％，其中包括新收購的Carpoly Chemical的貢獻。工程板塊應繼續保持穩步增長。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Weaker-than-expected recovery of basic building material operations.
基本建築材料業務的復甦低於預期。
Lower-than-expected prices of new material products.
新材料產品的價格低於預期。
Valuation
估價
We set our target price at the average of 6x current year P/E and 0.49x current year P/B (lowered from 0.52x based on P/B vs ROE regression of its peers). As we roll over the base year from 2023 to 2024, we raise our target price from HK$4.92 to HK$5.05 despite the cuts in our earnings forecasts.
我們將目標價格設定爲本年市盈率的平均6倍和本年市盈率的0.49倍（根據同行的市盈率與投資回歸率的回歸，從0.52倍下調）。隨着我們將基準年從2023年延續到2024年，儘管我們下調了盈利預期，但我們將目標價格從4.92港元上調至5.05港元。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。