TIMES ELECTRIC(3898.HK):2023 EARNINGS SLIGHTLY BEAT OUR ESTIMATE
TIMES ELECTRIC(3898.HK):2023 EARNINGS SLIGHTLY BEAT OUR ESTIMATE
Times Electric (Zhuzhou) reported sales and net profit up by 20.9% and 21.5% YoY in 2023, with sales in line and net profit beating our estimate by 5.3%. Gross margin expanded to 33% in 2023 from 32% in 2022.
時代電氣（株洲）報告稱，2023年銷售額和淨利潤同比增長20.9％和21.5％，銷售額持平，淨利潤比我們的預期高出5.3％。毛利率從2022年的32％擴大到2023年的33％。
SG&A cost increased by 17.4% YoY, lower than top-line growth.
銷售和收購成本同比增長17.4％，低於收入增長。
Finance income rose by 35.1% YoY, much contributing to the bottom- line growth. Operating cash flow increased 36% YoY. Zhuzhou raised the dividend payout ratio to 35.5% in 2023 from 30.5% in 2022, a strong motivation to share the good cash holding with shareholders. We retain sales estimate and slightly revise up earnings estimate in 2024E.
財務收入同比增長35.1％，爲利潤增長做出了巨大貢獻。運營現金流同比增長36％。株洲將股息支付率從2022年的30.5％提高到2023年的35.5％，這是與股東分享良好現金持有的強烈動力。我們保留了銷售預期，並略微上調了2024E年的收益預期。
We lower the target multiple from 23x to 18x 24E P/E to factor in the de- rating of home market, and derive the new TP HK$45.08. Retain BUY rating.
考慮到國內市場的評級，我們將目標倍數從23倍下調至24倍市盈率的18倍，並得出新的目標價爲45.08港元。保持買入評級。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Similar to parentco CRRC, Zhuzhou benefits from a good rebound in the demand recovery in EMU (Electric Multiple Units) and locomotive in 2023. Zhuzhou's earnings are mainly driven by the rolling stock industry while its valuation is more moved by the valuation of the EV industry. The hauling system to the rolling stock industry delivered 5% YoY growth and 47% sales contribution in 2023, still the single largest segment.
與母公司中車類似，株洲受益於2023年動車組（電氣多機組）和機車需求復甦的良好反彈。株洲的收益主要由機車車輛行業推動，而其估值更多地受電動汽車行業估值的推動。機車車輛行業的運輸系統在2023年實現了5％的同比增長和47％的銷售貢獻，仍然是最大的單一細分市場。
In 2023, Zhuzhou continued to book strong growth in semi-conductor products: 69% YoY for the power semiconductor, 74% YoY for industrial converter products, and 75% YoY for the electric drive system of EV. The new industry accounted for 40% of total sales in 2023.
2023年，株洲半導體產品繼續保持強勁增長：功率半導體同比增長69％，工業轉換器產品同比增長74％，電動汽車電力驅動系統同比增長75％。2023年，新行業佔總銷售額的40％。
The railway equipment segment delivered 33.9% gross margin in 2023, slightly lower than 35.8% in 2022, mainly caused by the drag-down of the urban rail.
鐵路設備板塊在2023年實現了33.9％的毛利率，略低於2022年的35.8％，這主要是由城市鐵路的拖累造成的。
The new industry segment expanded gross margin from 25.7% in 2022 to 28.2% due to better scale of economics, contributing to the expansion of the blended gross margin. We expect growth rate of the EV application might normalize gradually with the normalizing EV industry.
由於經濟規模的改善，新行業的毛利率從2022年的25.7％擴大到28.2％，這促進了混合毛利率的擴大。我們預計，隨着電動汽車行業的正常化，電動汽車應用的增長率可能會逐漸恢復正常。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
The value chain of EV industry may be uncertain in competition patter and the outlook.
電動汽車行業的價值鏈在競爭模式和前景中可能不確定。
Valuation
估價
Sales estimate is retained and earnings estimate is revised up slightly in 2024E.
2024E保留了銷售預期，收益估計值略有上調。
We lower the target multiple from 23x to 18x 24E P/E to factor in the de-rating of home market, and derive the new TP HK$45.08. Retain BUY rating.
考慮到國內市場評級下調，我們將目標倍數從23倍下調至24倍市盈率的18倍，並得出新的目標價爲45.08港元。保持買入評級。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。