SHOUGANG RESOURCES(639.HK):UPGRADE AS DIVIDEND YIELD ATTRACTIVE AFTER RECENT FALL IN SHARE PRICE
SHOUGANG RESOURCES(639.HK):UPGRADE AS DIVIDEND YIELD ATTRACTIVE AFTER RECENT FALL IN SHARE PRICE
The net profit of Shougang Resources fell 30% YoY to HK$1,889m in 2023, 13% below our forecast. The discrepancy mainly came from the additional amortisation and lower-than-expected sales volume. For 2024, we expect its earnings to drop 7% YoY after raising our forecast by 10% mainly to factor in the deferred sales of 0.15m tonnes of clean coal. After the recent drop in share price, the company's shares offer attractive dividend yield of 7.9-9.7% for the coming three years assuming payout ratio stayed at 74%. Hence, we upgrade our call from HOLD to BUY with target price remained at HK$3.16.
2023年，首鋼資源的淨利潤同比下降30％，至18.89億港元，比我們的預測低13％。差異主要來自額外的攤銷和低於預期的銷售量。在將預測提高10％之後，我們預計2024年的收益將同比下降7％，這主要是考慮到15萬噸清潔煤的延期銷售。在最近股價下跌之後，假設派息率保持在74％，該公司的股票將在未來三年內提供7.9-9.7％的誘人股息收益率。因此，我們將看漲期權從持倉上調至買入，目標價維持在3.16港元。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
The sharp fall in earnings in 2023 was mainly due to the 20% YoY fall in realised coal price. While clean coal output edged up 1% YoY to 3.25m tonnes in 2023, its clean coal sales volume dropped 7% YoY to 3.1m tonnes as 0.15m tonnes of clean coal in transit to clients were not qualified as sales in 2023.
2023年收益的急劇下降主要是由於煤炭已實現價格同比下降20％。2023年，清潔煤產量同比小幅增長1％，至325萬噸，但其清潔煤銷量同比下降7％，至310萬噸，原因是運往客戶的15萬噸清潔煤不符合2023年的銷售資格。
The company ceased mining at #4 coal seam at Xingwu Mine and Zhaiyadi Mine in late 2023. Hence, it wrote off relevant mining rights of HK$241m in 2023, which is an expense we did not take into account.
該公司於2023年底停止在興武礦和扎伊亞迪礦的 #4 煤層開採。因此，它在2023年註銷了2.41億港元的相關採礦權，這是我們沒有考慮的支出。
For 2024, we expect the company's raw coal output to drop 8% YoY to 4.8m tonnes as the company will relocate the production at Xingwu Mine to a new working face at the deeper #9 coal seam. This will disrupt the production at the mine for a few months. However, we expect the coal sales volume to be flat as the booking of the sales of the above-mentioned 0.15m tonnes of clean coal will be deferred to 2024.
我們預計，2024年，該公司的原煤產量將同比下降8％，至480萬噸，因爲該公司將把興武礦的生產轉移到更深的 #9 煤層的新工作面。這將使該礦的生產中斷幾個月。但是，我們預計煤炭銷量將持平，因爲上述15萬噸清潔煤的銷售預訂將推遲到2024年。
While its raw coal production cost slipped 1% YoY to RMB401/tonne in 2023, the unit cash cost actually dropped 11% YoY to RMB292/tonne as unit D&A cost was boosted by the additional amortisaton of mining rights. For 2024, the company targets to keep the controllable unit cash cost flat.
雖然其原煤生產成本在2023年同比下降了1％，至401元人民幣/噸，但由於採礦權的額外攤銷提振了單位併購成本，單位現金成本實際上同比下降了11％，至292元人民幣。到2024年，該公司的目標是保持可控單位現金成本不變。
While the company reduces its payout from 80% in 2022 to 74% in 2023, its cash payout ratio is still the highest among the coal peers. As long as it can maintain the payout ratio, its shares offer highly attractive forward dividend yield of 10.5% based on 2023 DPS.
儘管該公司的派息率從2022年的80％減少到2023年的74％，但其現金支付率仍然是煤炭同行中最高的。只要能夠維持派息率，其股票就提供極具吸引力的遠期股息收益率，根據2023年DPS，爲10.5％。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Sharp fall in coking coal prices.
煉焦煤價格急劇下跌。
Higher-than-expected costs.
成本高於預期。
Valuation
估價
Despite the miss in earnings and change in forecasts, the company's average 2023-25E ROE stays at 10.6%. Hence, we maintain our target valuation at 0.93x 2024E P/B and our target price at HK$3.16. This is equal to 9x 2024E P/E.
儘管收益不及預期，但該公司2023-25年的平均投資回報率仍保持在10.6％。因此，我們將目標估值維持在2024年市盈率的0.93倍，目標價維持在3.16港元。這等於 2024 年市盈率的 9 倍。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。