WUXI BIOLOGICS(02269.HK):REBOUND OF THE NUMBER OF NEW PROJECTS
WUXI BIOLOGICS(02269.HK):REBOUND OF THE NUMBER OF NEW PROJECTS
Wuxi Biologics reported 2023 results, with revenue of Rmb17.0bn (+11.6% YoY) and net profit of Rmb3.4bn (-23.1% YoY). Its adjusted net profit reached Rmb4.7bn (-4.6% YoY), in line with our expectation. Due to the ramp-up of new capacities, especially overseas capacities, its blended gross margin decreased 4.0ppts YoY to 40% in 2023 and the adjusted net profit margin decreased 4.2ppts YoY to 28% in 2023. The company expects revenue to grow 5-10% YoY, with non-Covid revenue growth of 8-14% YoY in 2024E. Given the company's leading position in biologics CDMO market and uncertainties of the US Biosecure Act, we lower our adjusted EPS from Rmb1.24 to Rmb1.18 (+5% YoY) in 24E, from Rmb1.55 to Rmb1.34 (+14% YoY) in 25E, and forecast Rmb1.49 (+11% YoY) in 26E.
藥明生物公佈了2023年業績，收入爲人民幣170億元（同比增長11.6％），淨利潤爲34億元人民幣（同比下降23.1％）。其調整後的淨利潤達到47億元人民幣（同比下降4.6％），符合我們的預期。由於新產能的增加，尤其是海外產能的增加，其混合毛利率在2023年同比下降4.0個百分點至40％，調整後的淨利潤率同比下降4.2個百分點至2023年的28％。該公司預計，2024E收入將同比增長5-10％，非COVID收入將同比增長8-14％。鑑於該公司在生物製劑CDMO市場的領先地位以及美國生物安全法案的不確定性，我們將24E調整後的每股收益從1.24元人民幣下調至1.18元人民幣（同比增長5％），在25E下調至1.34元人民幣（同比增長14％），並預測26E爲1.49元人民幣（同比增長11％）。
We lower our target price from HK$45 to HK$18 (14x24E PE). With 23% upside, we maintain BUY rating.
我們將目標價格從45港元下調至18港元（14x24e市盈率）。上漲幅度爲23％，我們維持買入評級。
Rapid growth of non-Covid revenue and strong performance of EU. Revenue from non-Covid projects increased 38% YoY to Rmb16.5bn (vs Rmb528m (-84% YoY) for Covid projects) in 2023, representing 97% of its total revenue (vs 79% in 2022). As for the revenue by region, revenue from Europe increased 102% YoY, with non-Covid revenue growth of 172% YoY, representing 30% of its total revenue. As for the US and China revenue decreased 5% YoY and 16% YoY, with the non-Covid revenue rising 20% YoY and down 1%, respectively, representing 47% and 18% of the company's total revenue in 2023. In terms of revenue by development stage, revenue growth of pre-IND service slowed down to +9% YoY due to the global biotech funding slowdown. With more projects signed in 4Q23, revenue growth from pre-IND services is expected to recovery. The revenue from early phase (phase I&II) grew +13% YoY. In addition, revenue of non-Covid projects from phase III & CMO period increased 102% YoY. Besides, the total backlog reached US$20.6bn (+0.1% YoY) in 2023, including the service backlog of US$13.4bn (-1% YoY) and the upcoming potential milestone fees backlog of US$7.2bn (+2% YoY). Meanwhile, the backlog within three years reached US$3.9bn (+6% YoY) in 2023, representing 19% of the total backlog.
非COVID收入的快速增長和歐盟的強勁表現。2023 年，非新冠肺炎項目的收入同比增長38％，達到165億元人民幣（相比之下，新冠肺炎項目的收入爲人民幣5.28億元（同比下降84％），佔其總收入的97％（2022年爲79％）。至於按地區劃分的收入，來自歐洲的收入同比增長102％，非COVID收入同比增長172％，佔其總收入的30％。至於美國和中國，收入同比下降5％，同比下降16％，非COVID收入分別增長20％和1％，佔公司2023年總收入的47％和18％。就按發展階段劃分的收入而言，由於全球生物技術資金放緩，IND前服務的收入同比增長放緩至9％。隨着23年第四季度簽署更多項目，預計IND前服務的收入增長將恢復。早期階段（第一和第二階段）的收入同比增長了13％。此外，第三階段和首席營銷官期間的非COVID項目的收入同比增長了102％。此外，積壓總額在2023年達到206億美元（同比增長0.1％），其中包括134億美元（同比下降1％）的服務積壓和即將到來的72億美元（同比增長2％）的潛在里程碑費用積壓。同時，三年內的積壓量在2023年達到39億美元（同比增長6％），佔總積壓量的19％。
Rebound of the number of new projects. Due to the impact of global biotech funding slowdown, the number of new projects added into Wuxi Biologics' pipeline was only eight in 1Q23, which rebounded to 46 in 2Q23, 61 in 3Q23 and 132 in 4Q23. In addition, under its "win the molecule" strategy, the company has 18 externally transferred projects in 2023, including seven phase III and two CMO projects, with potential blockbuster products. Wuxi Biologics' total number of integrated projects reached 698 (+19% YoY) in 2023, with 51 phase III and 24 CMO projects. As the leading indicators, the drug substances (DS) and drug products (DP) PPQs expects to increase to 34% YoY and 45% YoY in 2024E, respectively, which indicates the stable growth of the CMO business in future.
新項目數量的反彈。由於全球生物技術融資放緩的影響，無錫生物製藥在建的新項目數量在23年第一季度僅有8個，在23年第二季度回升至46個，在23年第三季度回升至61個，在23年第四季度回升至132個。此外，根據其 “贏取分子” 戰略，該公司在2023年有18個外部轉讓項目，包括七個三期項目和兩個首席營銷官項目，這些項目可能具有重磅產品。2023年，藥明生物的整合項目總數達到698個（同比增長19％），其中三期項目51個，首席營銷官項目24個。作爲領先指標，藥物物質（DS）和藥品（DP）PPQ預計在2024E年將分別增長至34％和同比增長45％，這表明CMO業務在未來將穩定增長。
Maintain BUY. Given the company's leading position in biologics CDMO market and uncertainties of the US Biosecure Act, we lower our adjusted EPS from Rmb1.24 to Rmb1.18 (+5% YoY) in 24E, from Rmb1.55 to Rmb1.34 (+14% YoY) in 25E, and forecast Rmb1.49 (+11% YoY) in 26E. We lower our target price from HK$45 to HK$18 (14x24E PE). With 23% upside, we maintain BUY rating.
維持買入。鑑於該公司在生物製劑CDMO市場的領先地位以及美國生物安全法案的不確定性，我們將24E調整後的每股收益從1.24元人民幣下調至1.18元人民幣（同比增長5％），在25E下調至1.34元人民幣（同比增長14％），並預測26E爲1.49元人民幣（同比增長11％）。我們將目標價格從45港元下調至18港元（市盈率爲14x24e）。上漲幅度爲23％，我們維持買入評級。
Risks. Slower-than-expected growth of the industry; rising competition from domestic and overseas CDMOs.
風險。該行業的增長低於預期；來自國內外CDMO的競爭日益激烈。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。