XIAOMI(1810.HK):XIAOMI EV SU7'S PRICING AND PRE-ORDER ABOVE EXPECTATIONS; RAISE TP TO HK$22.19
XIAOMI(1810.HK):XIAOMI EV SU7'S PRICING AND PRE-ORDER ABOVE EXPECTATIONS; RAISE TP TO HK$22.19
Xiaomi officially launched its SU 7 Series electric sedans on 28 Mar, which are priced at RMB 215.9k/245.9k/299.9k for SU7/SU7 Pro/SU7 Max models. Its competitive pricing strategy was well-received by the market, and the initial pre- orders of 50k/89k units in first 27min/24hr are above market expectations, mainly due to its competitive specs, self-developed autonomous driving technology (Xiaomi Pilot), and unique integrated AIoT ecosystem. In the near term, we believe investors will focus on pre-order momentum, shipment ramp-up and consumer feedback in next two months. Looking ahead, we remain positive on Xiaomi's unique "Human-car-home" ecosystem as major differentiation from other brands. We adjusted our forecasts to factor in EV shipment of 80k/150k/200k in FY24/25/26E, and assigned SOTP-based TP of HK$22.19 (49% upside).
小米於3月28日正式推出了其SU 7系列電動轎車，SU7/SU7 Pro/SU7 Max車型的售價爲人民幣215.9k/245.9k/299.9k元。其競爭性定價策略受到市場好評，前27分鐘/24小時的5萬/8.9萬輛的初始預購量超出了市場預期，這主要是由於其競爭規格、自主開發的自動駕駛技術（小米Pilot）和獨特的集成AIoT生態系統。我們認爲，在短期內，投資者將關注未來兩個月的預購勢頭、出貨量增長和消費者反饋。展望未來，我們仍然樂觀地認爲小米獨特的 “人車之家” 生態系統是與其他品牌的主要區別。我們調整了預測，將24/25/26財年的電動汽車出貨量爲8萬/15萬/20萬輛考慮在內，並將基於SOTP的目標價定爲22.19港元（上漲49％）。
Xiaomi SU7's pricing strategy is well received by the market. Xiaomi officially launched its SU 7 Series electric sedan model on 28 Mar, with the price of RMB 215.9k/245.9k/299.9k for SU7/SU7 Pro/SU7 Max models. SU7's technical specs (0-100km/h acceleration, battery voltage/miles, in- cabin system) outperform its peers in the same price range (e.g. Zeekr 001/007, Tesla Model 3, Luxeed S7, Xpeng P7i), in our view. We are positive on Xiaomi's competitive pricing and AIoT ecosystem based on "Human-car-home" connectivity, which is its major competitive advantage over its EV peers.
小米SU7的定價策略受到市場好評。小米於3月28日正式推出了其SU 7系列電動轎車車型，SU7/SU7 Pro/SU7 Max車型的價格爲人民幣215.9k/245.9k/299.9k。在我們看來，SU7的技術規格（0-100km/h加速、電池電壓/英里、艙內系統）在相同價格區間（例如極客001/007、特斯拉Model 3、Luxeed S7、Xpeng P7i）中表現優於同行。我們對小米的競爭性定價和基於 “人車之家” 連接的AIoT生態系統持積極態度，這是其相對於電動汽車同行的主要競爭優勢。
Initial pre-orders above market expectations; Shipment ramp-up will be major focus. The initial pre-order of 50k/89k units within the first 27 minutes/24 hours surpassed market expectations. We think Xiaomi's EV production capacity could be the near-term bottle-neck given 100k units annual capacity for Xiaomi's phase one plant. Total capacity will reach 300k units after second phase starts operation in March 2025. In the near term, we expect pre-order momentum, shipment ramp-up and consumer feedback will be the major market focus in next two months.
初始預購量超出市場預期；出貨量增加將是主要焦點。在最初的27分鐘/24小時內首次預購了5萬/89萬臺，超出了市場預期。鑑於小米一期工廠的年產能爲10萬輛，我們認爲小米的電動汽車產能在短期內可能處於瓶頸。2025年3月第二階段開始運營後，總容量將達到30萬臺。在短期內，我們預計，預購勢頭、出貨量增加和消費者反饋將是未來兩個月的主要市場焦點。
Positive market response as near-term catalyst; Raise SOTP-based TP to HK$22.19. Market reacted positively to Xiaomi's EV pricing and initial pre-orders, as Xiaomi ADR rallied over 11% post launch event. We think that Xiaomi's EV product pricing strategy and positive market response will be the near-term share price catalyst. We adjusted our forecasts to factor in EV shipment of 80k/150k/200k in FY24/25/26E, and assigned SOTP-based TP of HK$22.19 (vs prior 24x FY24E P/E).
積極的市場反應是短期催化劑；將基於SOTP的目標價提高至22.19港元。市場對小米的電動汽車定價和初始預購反應積極，小米ADR在發佈會後上漲了11％以上。我們認爲，小米的電動汽車產品定價策略和積極的市場反應將是短期股價的催化劑。我們調整了預測，將24/25/26財年的電動汽車出貨量爲8萬/15萬/20萬英鎊，並將基於SOTP的目標值定爲22.19港元（而之前的24倍 FY24E 市盈率）。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。