紧盯商业低轨卫星市场，微系统产品实现快速增长。根据公司公告，公司2023 年实现营收2.81 亿元（yoy+15.75%）。我们分析认为1）分产品看电源管理芯片实现收入1.07亿元（yoy+18.02%），ADC/DAC 芯片实现营收0.99 亿元（yoy-1.87%），微系统及模组实现收入0.49 亿元（yoy+26.90%），公司持续扩大微系统产品的技术领先优势，在报告期内研发定型了多款应用于低轨商业卫星的 SIP 组件产品，未来有望充分受益于国内星座建设加速；2）考虑公司作为特种芯片核心供应商，研发节奏不断加快，伴随产品矩阵进一步丰富，叠加后续新增订单落地，产品有序交付，公司营收有望实现快速增长。Incidents:
The company announced its 2023 results report. According to the company's announcement, the company achieved revenue of 281 million yuan (yoy +15.75%) in 2023, achieved net profit of 72 million yuan (yoy -32.72%), and realized net profit of 64 million yuan (yoy -37.26%) after deducting non-return to mother. 2023Q4 achieved revenue of 110 million yuan (yoy +18.08%), realized net profit of 0.3 million yuan (yoy -10.38%), and realized net profit without deduction of 0.27 million yuan (yoy -25.51%). The 2023 results fell short of market expectations.
Comment:
Keeping an eye on the commercial low-orbit satellite market, microsystem products have achieved rapid growth. According to the company announcement, the company achieved revenue of 281 million yuan (yoy +15.75%) in 2023. According to our analysis, 1) by product, power management chips achieved revenue of 107 million yuan (yoy +18.02%), ADC/DAC chips achieved revenue of 99 million yuan (yoy -1.87%), and microsystems and modules achieved revenue of 49 million yuan (yoy +26.90%). The company continued to expand the technological leadership of microsystem products and developed and defined a variety of SIP component products used in low-orbit commercial satellites during the reporting period. The future is expected to fully benefit from the acceleration of domestic constellation construction; 2) Consider the company as a core supplier of special chips The pace of R&D continues to accelerate, along with the further enrichment of the product matrix, and subsequent execution of new orders and orderly delivery of products, the company's revenue is expected to grow rapidly.
Increased R&D investment costs are under pressure, and the company's 2023 performance falls short of market expectations. According to the company's announcement, the company achieved net profit of 72 million yuan (yoy -32.72%) in 2023. The gross margin in 2023 was 83.12%, down 4.76pcts from the same period last year, and the net margin decreased 18.60pcts to 25.81% from 44.41% in the same period last year. According to our analysis, 1) The decline in net interest rate was mainly due to pressure on the cost side. Among them, the cost rate for the 2023 period was 48.30%, an increase of 11.27 pcts over 37.03% in the same period last year. The main reason was the high increase in R&D expenses, which increased 12.34 pcts over the same period last year. 2) Considering the company's current R&D expenses, the cost side is expected to improve, and the company's overall profitability is expected to improve in the later stages along with the finalization and mass production of products under development, the product structure continues to be optimized, and the company's overall profitability is expected to increase.
The high level of inventory increases, which is expected to translate into performance as products are delivered. According to the company's announcement, as of the end of 2023, the company's inventory was 106 million yuan, an increase of 34 million yuan over the same period last year. According to our analysis, 1) the company is actively preparing for production, and the phased array radar and satellite industry is in strong demand, which validates the boom in the industry; 2) with the execution of subsequent orders, downstream demand is being released at an accelerated pace. The company has deep reserves of products of various models and applications in various fields, which is expected to drive a steady recovery in future performance.
Deeply involved in the field of special high-end chips, four major logics help to steadily improve profitability. 1) As a core supplier of special high-end chips, the company's three major businesses are expected to be released along with demand for downstream satellites and radars, driving rapid revenue growth; 2) The company has superior product performance, benchmarking the international advanced level and building industry barriers to ensure steady expansion of the existing market share; 3) The company focuses on the commercial low-orbit satellite market, and has newly developed and iterated on several series of mass-producible products. The future core will benefit from the acceleration of domestic constellation construction.
The 2024-2025E profit forecast was lowered and the “Buy” rating was maintained. Considering the company's increased investment in R&D combined with fluctuations in gross margin, we lowered the company's net profit to the mother for 2024-2025E to 1.03 billion yuan (previous value was 2.03/288 million yuan), and the net profit forecast for 2026E was 234 million yuan. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 77/52/34 times, respectively.
Selected leading companies related to space-borne and phased array chips, Chengchang Technology (phased array T/R chips), Guobo Electronics (phased array T/R components and T/R chips), and Aerospace Intelligence (space-borne SOC chips). We used the ratio of 2024E price-earnings ratio and 2023E-2025E to parent net profit CAGR to calculate PEG. Comparable to the company's 2024E PEG average of 2.2 and the company's PEG of 1.7, which is lower than the industry average. Considering the company's superior product performance, strong core competitiveness, and the core benefits from the accelerated construction of domestic constellations, the company's future performance is expected to grow rapidly, so it maintains a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of domestic constellation construction falling short of expectations; risk of R&D progress falling short of expectations; risk of gross margin fluctuation.
