With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 3x Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PARR) may be sending very bullish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios greater than 18x and even P/E's higher than 33x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so limited.
With its earnings growth in positive territory compared to the declining earnings of most other companies, Par Pacific Holdings has been doing quite well of late. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, possibly more than the market, which has repressed the P/E. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
Is There Any Growth For Par Pacific Holdings?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Par Pacific Holdings would need to produce anemic growth that's substantially trailing the market.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 98%. Still, EPS has barely risen at all from three years ago in total, which is not ideal. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should bring diminished returns, with earnings decreasing 34% per annum as estimated by the five analysts watching the company. That's not great when the rest of the market is expected to grow by 10% each year.
In light of this, it's understandable that Par Pacific Holdings' P/E would sit below the majority of other companies. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/E has reached a floor yet with earnings going in reverse. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is weighing down the shares.
The Final Word
We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
We've established that Par Pacific Holdings maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its forecast for sliding earnings, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Par Pacific Holdings (1 shouldn't be ignored) you should be aware of.
You might be able to find a better investment than Par Pacific Holdings. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.