SHANGHAI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT(600009):2023 RESULTS IN LINE; TOURIST TRAFFIC RECOVERY ACCELERATES; WATCH FOR DFS RENTAL PHASE IV PROJECT
SHANGHAI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT(600009):2023 RESULTS IN LINE; TOURIST TRAFFIC RECOVERY ACCELERATES; WATCH FOR DFS RENTAL PHASE IV PROJECT
2023 results in line with market expectations
2023 年業績符合市場預期
Shanghai International Airport announced its 2023 results: Revenue rose 102% YoY to Rmb11.05bn, and attributable net profit reached Rmb934mn (vs. -Rmb3.0bn in 2022). In 4Q23, revenue rose 131% YoY or 2% QoQ to Rmb3.13bn, and net profit reached Rmb437mn (vs. -Rmb892mn in 4Q22 and Rmb364mn in 3Q23). The firm's results were in line with market expectations.
上海國際機場公佈了其2023年業績：收入同比增長102％至110.5億元人民幣，應占淨利潤達到9.34億元人民幣（2022年爲-30億元人民幣）。在23年第四季度，收入同比增長131％，環比增長2％，達到31.3億元人民幣，淨利潤達到4.37億元人民幣（相比之下，42年第四季度爲-8.92億元人民幣，23年第三季度爲3.64億元人民幣）。該公司的業績符合市場預期。
Revenue recovered along with tourist traffic; full-year DFS income at about Rmb1.8bn. In 2023, revenue from aircraft takeoff and landing grew 75% YoY, and that from passenger, cargo and mail services rose 246% YoY. In 2023, the firm's two airports reported 112% and 236% YoY growth in aircraft takeoffs and landings as well as passenger throughput.
收入與遊客流量一起恢復；全年DFS收入約爲18億元人民幣。2023年，飛機起降收入同比增長75％，客運、貨運和郵件服務的收入同比增長246％。2023年，該公司的兩個機場報告稱，飛機起降量和旅客吞吐量同比增長了112％和236％。
Revenue from non-aviation business grew 82% YoY, with that from commercial catering and logistics services up 334% and 8% YoY. Revenue from duty-free contracts was Rmb1.79bn in 2023, including about Rmb480mn in rent that were recognized in 4Q23 (vs. Rmb530mn in 3Q23). The firm implemented new supplementary contracts with duty-free shops (DFS) in December 2023.
非航空業務收入同比增長82％，商業餐飲和物流服務的收入同比增長334％和8％。2023 年免稅合約收入爲人民幣17.9億元，其中包括 23 年第四季度確認的約 4.8 億元人民幣的租金（而 23 年第三季度爲 5.3 億元人民幣）。該公司於2023年12月與免稅商店（DFS）簽訂了新的補充合同。
Operating costs increased slightly; investment income improved significantly. Operating costs grew 4% YoY in 2023, with labor and depreciation & amortization up 7% and 9% YoY. Operation and maintenance costs were down 3% YoY due to lower disaster prevention expenses. In 2023, investment income rose 274.35% YoY to Rmb661mn, mainly contributed by JCDecaux as well as ground service and oilseed subsidiaries. In 2023, newly acquired assets Uni-champion and CDF Sunrise Internet Technology contributed Rmb77mn and Rmb22mn.
運營成本略有增加；投資收入顯著提高。2023年，運營成本同比增長4％，勞動力、折舊和攤銷同比增長7％和9％。由於防災費用降低，運營和維護成本同比下降了3％。2023年，投資收益同比增長274.35％至人民幣6.61億元，主要由德高以及地面服務和油籽子公司貢獻。2023 年，新收購的資產 Uni-Champion 和 CDF Sunrise Internet Technology 出資人民幣7700萬元和人民幣2200萬元。
Trends to watch
值得關注的趨勢
Recovery of tourist traffic accelerated; watch sales under new DFS contracts. In February 2024, passenger throughput of domestic and international flights recovered to 120% and 80% of the levels in the same period of 2019, which were 16ppt and 12ppt higher than the recovery in December 2023. We suggest paying attention to changes brought by new duty-free contracts in discounts on perfumes and fragrances at airports, introduction of premium brands, and effectiveness of online booking model.
遊客流量加速恢復；根據新的DFS合同，手錶銷售。2024年2月，國內和國際航班的旅客吞吐量恢復至2019年同期水平的120％和80％，比2023年12月的復甦高出16個百分點和12個百分點。我們建議關注新的免稅合同在機場香水和香水折扣、高端品牌的引入以及在線預訂模式的有效性方面所帶來的變化。
Construction of Phase IV project well underway. According to the Shanghai Planning & Natural Resources Bureau1 and NDRC2, completion of Shanghai Pudong International Airport's Phase IV expansion project is slated for 2027, which will likely start operation in 2028. The project involves a terminal T3, covering an area of about 852,600 sqm, and will provide a guaranteed airport capacity of 130mn passengers after completion.
第四階段項目的建設進展順利。根據上海規劃和自然資源局1和 NDRC2 的數據，上海浦東國際機場的四期擴建項目計劃於 2027 年完工，該項目可能於 2028 年開始運營。該項目涉及一個佔地約852,600平方米的T3航站樓，建成後將保證機場容量爲1.3億人次。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
We lower our 2024 and 2025 net profit forecasts 13% and 14% to Rmb3.31bn and Rmb4.45bn, mainly because we lower our assumptions for passenger volume growth and transactions per business customer. The stock is trading at 27.3x 2024e and 20.3x 2025e P/E. We keep our target price unchanged at Rmb40, implying 30x 2024e P/E (vs. previous target P/E of 26x, mainly considering improving risk appetite for the firm amid accelerating recovery of international travel), offering 10.3% upside.
我們將2024年和2025年的淨利潤預測下調了13％和14％，至33.1億元人民幣和44.5億元人民幣，這主要是因爲我們下調了對客運量增長和每位企業客戶交易量的假設。該股的交易價格爲2024年的27.3倍和2025年的20.3倍。我們將目標價維持在40元人民幣不變，這意味着2024年的市盈率爲30倍（而之前的目標市盈率爲26倍，主要考慮在國際旅行加速復甦的情況下公司的風險偏好有所改善），上漲幅度爲10.3％。
Risks
風險
Disappointing tourist traffic recovery and/or DFS sales; higher-than- expected capex.
遊客流量恢復和/或DFS銷售令人失望；資本支出高於預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。