流感疫苗销售亮眼。据公司公告，2023 年公司流感疫苗实现销售收入24.02 亿元，同比增长32.19%，占公司总收入的99.68%，对应销售量约1,940 万支。另据中检院数据，2021-2023 年，公司流感疫苗批签发分别为100 批次、103 批次和94 批次，流感疫苗批签发批次数量继续保持国内首位，其中2023 年四价流感疫苗（成人剂型）73 批次，四价流感疫苗（儿童剂型）15 批次，三价流感疫苗6 批次。我们认为公司在流感疫苗领域继续保持龙头地位，建议关注2024 年公司产能规划以及放量节奏。2023 results are in line with our expectations
The company announced its 2023 results: revenue of 2,410 billion yuan, up 32.03% year on year; net profit to mother of 860 million yuan, up 65.49% year on year; deducted non-net profit of 758 million yuan, an increase of 67.82% year on year, mainly due to a marked recovery in the company's influenza vaccine sales, which is in line with our expectations. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6.0 yuan for every 10 shares.
Development trends
Sales of influenza vaccines are impressive. According to the company's announcement, the company achieved sales revenue of 2,402 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 32.19% over the previous year, accounting for 99.68% of the company's total revenue, corresponding to sales volume of about 19.4 million units. In addition, according to data from the Central Public Prosecution Service, in 2021-2023, the company issued 100 batches, 103 batches, and 94 batches respectively. The number of influenza vaccine batches issued continued to rank first in the country. Among them, 73 batches of the 2023 quadrivalent influenza vaccine (adult dosage form), 15 batches of quadrivalent influenza vaccine (children's dosage form), and 6 batches of trivalent influenza vaccine were issued. We believe that the company will continue to maintain its leading position in the field of influenza vaccines, and it is recommended to focus on the company's production capacity plan and volume pace for 2024.
Company fee rates have improved. According to the company's announcement, in 2023, the company's sales expenses rate was 39.4%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points over the previous year; the management fee rate was 2.9%, down 2.3 percentage points from the previous year; the R&D expenses rate was 3.8%, down 3.6 percentage points from the previous year, and the main direct investment and clinical expenses and testing costs were reduced; asset impairment losses amounted to 94.92 million yuan, a decrease of 37.4% year on year, mainly due to reduced preparation for inventory price reduction related to influenza vaccine at the end of 2023.
The company's R&D is progressing steadily. In February 2023, the company's freeze-dried human rabies vaccine (Vero cells) and adsorbed tetanus vaccine were approved for marketing, further enriching the company's vaccine pipeline. In addition, the company's AC influenza conjugate vaccine has completed phase III clinical trials; the company expects that the adsorbed acell-free DPT vaccine will start phase III clinical trials in 2024; and the company is actively developing various mRNA vaccines such as the influenza mRNA vaccine.
Profit forecasting and valuation
We remain unchanged in our 2024 and 2025 earnings forecasts. We maintain Hualan Vaccine's “outperforming the industry” rating. The current stock price corresponds to 15.1 times/13.2 times the 2024/2025 price-earnings ratio. According to the P/E valuation method, we maintain a target price of 30.0 yuan, which corresponds to 18.9 times the 2024 price-earnings ratio. There is 25.6% room for growth compared to the current stock price.
risks
The recovery of the industry fell short of expectations; vaccine product safety issues; increased homogenization competition; risk of dependency on a single product; and vaccine batch issuance fell short of expectations.
