TRAVELSKY TECHNOLOGY(00696.HK):2023 RESULTS HURT BY SYSTEM INTEGRATION AND CREDIT IMPAIRMENT; PAYOUT RATIO IMPROVING
TRAVELSKY TECHNOLOGY(00696.HK):2023 RESULTS HURT BY SYSTEM INTEGRATION AND CREDIT IMPAIRMENT; PAYOUT RATIO IMPROVING
2023 results in line with market expectations
2023 年業績符合市場預期
TravelSky Technology announced its 2023 results: Revenue increased 34% YoY to Rmb6.98bn and net profit attributable to shareholders grew 123% YoY to Rmb1.40bn, in line with market expectations. In 2H23, revenue rose 25% YoY and 11% QoQ to Rmb3.68bn, and net profit grew 8% YoY and fell 83% HoH to Rmb199mn.The board of directors proposed a dividend of Rmb0.16/sh, implying a payout ratio of 33% (vs. 25% in 2022).
旅天科技公佈了其2023年業績：收入同比增長34％至人民幣69.8億元，股東應占淨利潤同比增長123％，達到14.0億元人民幣，符合市場預期。在23年下半年，收入同比增長25％，環比增長11％，至36.8億元人民幣，淨利潤同比增長8％，同比下降83％，至人民幣1.99億元。董事會提議派息0.16元人民幣，這意味着派息率爲33％（2022年爲25％）。
AIT business recovered steadily along with the airline industry in 2H23, but system integration and technical services weighed on growth. In 2H23, revenue from the airline information technology (AIT) business rose 163% YoY to Rmb1.96bn, recovering to 85% of the 2019 level. Specifically, total bookings rose 154% YoY, recovering to 96% of 2019 level; ASP rose 4% YoY to Rmb5.8 (vs. Rmb6.6 in 2019), which we attribute to the slow recovery of higher-ASP international flights. In 2H23, system integration revenue fell 39% YoY due to fewer projects completed and accepted; revenue of other businesses declined 22% YoY, due to a 41% YoY drop in technical services.
AIT 業務在 23 年下半年與航空業一起穩步復甦，但系統集成和技術服務打壓了增長。在23年下半年，航空信息技術（AIT）業務的收入同比增長163％至19.6億元人民幣，恢復至2019年水平的85％。具體而言，總預訂量同比增長154％，恢復至2019年水平的96％；ASP同比增長4％，至5.8元人民幣（2019年爲6.6元人民幣），我們將其歸因於ASP較高的國際航班復甦緩慢。在23年下半年，由於完成和驗收的項目減少，系統集成收入同比下降39％；由於技術服務同比下降41％，其他業務的收入同比下降22％。
Operating cost rose 7% YoY in 2H23; provision for credit impairment put pressure on earnings. The firm's cost increase in 2H23 was mainly driven by higher labor costs, which rose 15% YoY in 2H23 and 14% YoY in 2023 due to the increase in employee salaries and social insurance.
23年下半年的運營成本同比增長7％；信用減值準備金給收益帶來壓力。該公司在2H23年的成本增長主要是由勞動力成本上漲推動的，由於員工工資和社會保險的增加，勞動力成本在23年下半年同比增長15％，在2023年同比增長14％。
Headcount remained largely stable at end-2023. In 2H23, the firm made provisions for credit impairment losses of Rmb421mn.
到 2023 年底，員工人數基本保持穩定。在23年下半年，該公司爲4.21億元人民幣的信用減值損失做好了準備。
Trends to watch
值得關注的趨勢
Bookings of AIT business continues to recover steadily. According to corporate filings, the firm's bookings for domestic and international flights of Chinese airlines recovered in February 2024 to 120% and 77% of the levels in 2019, and bookings for international flights of overseas airlines rebounded to 55% of the level in 2019. These figures rose 21ppt, 8ppt and 11ppt from December 2023.
AIT業務的預訂量繼續穩步恢復。根據公司文件，該公司對中國航空公司的國內和國際航班預訂量在2024年2月恢復至2019年水平的120％和77％，海外航空公司的國際航班預訂量在2019年回升至55％。自2023年12月以來，這些數字上升了21個百分點、8個百分點和11個百分點。
Watch progress of share appreciation rights. The firm issued a proposal on December 28, 2023 to adopt the Phase III share appreciation rights plan. However, the plan was not submitted for approval at the extraordinary general meeting on January 25, 2024 as some preconditions were not met. We suggest keeping an eye on the progress.
觀看股票增值權的進展情況。該公司於2023年12月28日發佈了通過第三階段股票增值權計劃的提案。但是，由於一些先決條件未得到滿足，該計劃沒有在2024年1月25日的特別股東大會上提交批准。我們建議密切關注進展情況。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
As the firm's business volume recovery in early 2024 is slightly better than we had expected, we slightly raise our 2024 and 2025 net profit forecasts 7.5% and 4.3% to Rmb1.941bn and Rmb2.348bn. The stock is trading at 12.0x 2024e P/E and 9.5x 2025e P/E. We maintain OUTPERFORM, and raise our target price 4% to HK$11.3, implying 15x 2024e P/E and offering 26% upside.
由於該公司在2024年初的業務量恢復略好於我們的預期，我們將2024年和2025年的淨利潤預期略有上調7.5％和4.3％，至19.41億元人民幣和23.48億元人民幣。該股的市盈率爲2024年的12.0倍，2025年市盈率爲9.5倍。我們維持跑贏大盤，並將目標價上調4％至11.3港元，這意味着2024年市盈率爲15倍，上漲空間爲26％。
Risks
風險
Disappointing air travel demand; higher-than-expected cost growth; large impairment provisions.
航空旅行需求令人失望；成本增長高於預期；大量減值準備金。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。