HUAXIN CEMENT(600801):FULL-YEAR EARNINGS REMAIN SOLID;OVERSEAS EXPANSION AND BUSINESS INTEGRATION ACCELERATING _ RESULTS REVIEW
HUAXIN CEMENT(600801):FULL-YEAR EARNINGS REMAIN SOLID;OVERSEAS EXPANSION AND BUSINESS INTEGRATION ACCELERATING _ RESULTS REVIEW
2023 recurring net profit miss our expectations
2023 年經常性淨利潤未達到我們的預期
Huaxin Cement announced its 2023 results: Revenue rose 10.8% YoY to Rmb33.76bn, and attributable net profit grew 2.3% YoY to Rmb2.76bn, and recurring net profit dropped 9.9% YoY to Rmb2.32bn. In 4Q23, revenue rose 10.8% YoY to Rmb9.59bn, attributable net profit grew 87% YoY to Rmb888mn, and recurring net profit increased 11.4% YoY to Rmb499mn.
華新水泥公佈了其2023年業績：收入同比增長10.8％，至人民幣337.6億元，應占淨利潤同比增長2.3％，至27.6億元人民幣，經常性淨利潤同比下降9.9％，至23.2億元人民幣。在23年第四季度，收入同比增長10.8％至人民幣95.9億元，應占淨利潤同比增長87％至人民幣8.88億元，經常性淨利潤同比增長11.4％，至人民幣4.99億元。
The firm's 2023 attributable net profit slightly beat our expectations, but recurring net profit missed our expectations, mainly due to higher-than- expected expenses and impairment provisions in 4Q23.
該公司2023年的應占淨利潤略高於我們的預期，但經常性淨利潤未達到我們的預期，這主要是由於23年第四季度的支出和減值準備高於預期。
Sales volume of cement and clinker grew despite headwinds in China, thanks to sound overseas performance. In 2023, the firm's
儘管中國存在不利因素，但水泥和熟料的銷量仍在增長，這要歸功於良好的海外表現。在 2023 年，該公司的
cement and clinker sales volume rose 2.5% YoY to 61.9mnt. In our view, its sales volume growth in overseas markets was faster than market expected, offsetting the decline in sales volume in China caused by falling domestic demand.
水泥和熟料銷售量同比增長2.5％，至619萬噸。我們認爲，其在海外市場的銷量增長快於市場預期，抵消了國內需求下降導致的中國銷量的下降。
ASP and gross profit per tonne came in China under pressure due to
由於以下原因，中國的ASP和每噸毛利面臨壓力
fierce price competition. We estimate the firm's ASP of clinker dropped Rmb29 YoY to Rmb311 in 2023, and its gross profit per tonne fell Rmb4 YoY to Rmb81. Given the fierce price competition in the domestic cement industry, we estimate that the firm's gross profit per tonne in China dropped to Rmb50-60, while its gross profit per tonne in overseas markets remained relatively high, cushioning the decline in its ASP and gross profit per tonne.
激烈的價格競爭。我們估計，該公司的熟料ASP在2023年同比下降29元至311元人民幣，其每噸毛利同比下降4元至81元人民幣。鑑於國內水泥行業激烈的價格競爭，我們估計該公司在中國的每噸毛利潤降至50-60元人民幣，而其海外市場的每噸毛利潤仍然相對較高，這緩解了其ASP和每噸毛利潤的下降。
Non-cement business grew rapidly. In 2023, the firm's aggregate export volume increased 100% YoY to about 131mn tonnes, and its concrete export volume rose 66% YoY to 27.27mn cubic meters.
非水泥業務迅速增長。2023年，該公司的總出口量同比增長100％，達到約1.31億噸，其混凝土出口量同比增長66％，達到2727萬立方米。
Overall expenses rose, weighing on profit. The firm's G&A, R&D, and
總支出上升，打壓了利潤。該公司的併購、研發和
financial expense ratios edged up 0.2ppt, 0.6ppt, and 0.6ppt YoY in 2023.
2023年，財務支出比率同比小幅上升0.2個百分點、0.6個百分點和0.6個百分點。
Impairment increased and asset disposal brought one-off gains. In
減值增加，資產處置帶來一次性收益。在
2023, the firm made provisions for asset and credit impairment losses of about Rmb206mn (+Rmb71mn YoY), and received asset disposal income of Rmb427mn from the idle industrial land.
2023年，該公司爲約人民幣2.06億元（同比增加人民幣7100萬元）的資產和信用減值損失做好了準備，並從閒置工業用地獲得了4.27億元人民幣的資產處置收入。
Cash flow remained ample and dividend payout ratio remained stable.
現金流仍然充足，股息支付率保持穩定。
In 2023, the firm's net operating cash flow rose 36.5% YoY to about Rmb6.24bn, implying a dividend payout ratio of about 40% and an 2024 dividend yield of about 4.5% for A-shares.
2023年，該公司的淨運營現金流同比增長36.5％，達到約62.4億元人民幣，這意味着A股的股息支付率約爲40％，2024年的股息收益率約爲4.5％。
Trends to watch Earnings contribution from non-cement businesses such as
值得關注的趨勢非水泥企業的收益貢獻，例如
aggregates to continue to rise. As of end-2023, the firm had built annual aggregate capacity of 277mnt, and its annual export volume of aggregates has exceeded 130mnt (+100% YoY), with gross margin staying high at 45.9%. Gross profit of the aggregate business as a percentage of the firm's overall gross profit increased 6ppt YoY to more than 27% in 2023.
總量將繼續上升。截至2023年底，該公司的年總產能已達到2.77億英鎊，其年總出口量已超過1.3億英鎊（同比增長100％），毛利率保持在45.9％的高位。2023年，總業務毛利佔公司總毛利的百分比同比增長6個百分點至27％以上。
We expect the firm's aggregate capacity and output to exceed 300mn and 200mn tonnes in 2025, and its non-cement businesses (e.g., aggregate) to continue contributing incremental profit.
我們預計，到2025年，該公司的總產能和產量將超過3億噸和2億噸，其非水泥業務（例如合計）將繼續帶來增量利潤。
Benefits from overseas businesses to increase steadily. We believe the
海外業務的收益將穩步增加。我們相信
firm enjoys a first-mover advantage related to overseas expansion.
公司享有與海外擴張相關的先發優勢。
Although it may report lower operational efficiency in some regions in 2024 due to supply-demand disruptions, we expect its overall efficiency in overseas markets to improve as its overseas production capacity expands and output and sales increase.
儘管該公司可能報告稱，由於供需中斷，2024年某些地區的運營效率會降低，但我們預計，隨着海外產能的擴大以及產量和銷售的增加，其海外市場的整體效率將有所提高。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
We keep our 2024 and 2025 attributable net profit forecasts unchanged at Rmb3.07bn and Rmb3.51bn. The stock is trading at 8.9x 2024e and 7.8x 2025e P/E. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating and cut our target price by 10.4% to Rmb19.0 due to the lower risk appetite of investors, implying 12.9x 2024e and 11.3x 2025e P/E with 45% upside.
我們將2024年和2025年的應占淨利潤預測維持在30.7億元人民幣和35.1億元人民幣不變。該股的市盈率爲2024年的8.9倍，2025年的市盈率爲7.8倍。由於投資者的風險偏好，我們維持跑贏大盤的評級，並將目標股價下調了10.4％，至19.0元人民幣，這意味着2024年市盈率爲12.9倍，2025年市盈率爲11.3倍，上漲幅度爲45％。
Risks
風險
Demand recovery disappoints; overseas supply and demand conditions deteriorate.
需求復甦令人失望；海外供需狀況惡化。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。