Bitcoin's Historic Market Cycle Nearing End With The Halving Event? Expert Says Crypto Market To Undergo Major Changes
Bitcoin's Historic Market Cycle Nearing End With The Halving Event? Expert Says Crypto Market To Undergo Major Changes
As Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) value continues to climb, reaching unprecedented heights, the question arises whether the traditional four-year market cycle that has characterized its growth is nearing its conclusion.
隨着比特幣（CRYPTO：BTC）的價值持續攀升，達到前所未有的高度，問題是，以其增長爲特徵的傳統四年市場週期是否已接近尾聲。
What Happened: Bitcoin's traditional four-year market cycle may be disrupted by new market players and mechanisms, CoinFlip's CEO Daniel Polotsky suggests in a recent op-ed for CoinDesk.
發生了什麼：CoinFlip首席執行官丹尼爾·波洛茨基在CoinDesk最近的一篇專欄文章中表示，比特幣傳統的四年市場週期可能會受到新的市場參與者和機制的干擾。
As Bitcoin approaches its next halving event, Polotsky points out that the crypto market may be on the verge of a significant change. The cycle, historically associated with price surges post-halving, could be altered by the entrance of ETFs and institutional investors.
隨着比特幣接近下一個減半事件，波洛茨基指出，加密市場可能正處於重大變化的邊緣。這一週期歷來與減半後的價格飆升有關，ETF和機構投資者的加入可能會改變這種週期。
Bitcoin's value has recently soared, reaching new heights above $73,000, driven by the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. and major financial institutions like BlackRock entering the space.
在美國現貨比特幣ETF的批准以及貝萊德等主要金融機構進入該領域的推動下，比特幣的價值最近飆升，達到73,000美元以上的新高。
The influx of institutional capital and the approval of ETFs have increased Bitcoin's legitimacy and accessibility, potentially signaling a shift from its historical boom-and-bust cycles to a more stable trajectory of growth.
機構資本的湧入和ETF的批准提高了比特幣的合法性和可及性，這可能預示着比特幣從歷史的繁榮與蕭條週期轉向更穩定的增長軌跡。
Despite the bullish outlook, there are concerns. Tighter monetary policies, economic slowdowns, and the upcoming halving impact on bitcoin mining could pose challenges to this trajectory.
儘管前景看漲，但仍存在擔憂。更緊縮的貨幣政策、經濟放緩以及即將到來的對比特幣採礦的減半影響可能會對這一軌跡構成挑戰。
Political factors, such as the 2024 U.S. elections, could also influence the market's direction, with regulatory changes hinging on the election outcomes.
政治因素，例如2024年美國大選，也可能影響市場的方向，監管變化取決於選舉結果。
With ETF inflows now playing a significant role, the halving event's historical impact on market cycles may be lessened. This shift could mark the end of the four-year bull/bear cycle, leading to a more stable market environment.
隨着ETF流入現在起着重要作用，減半事件對市場週期的歷史影響可能會減弱。這種轉變可能標誌着四年牛市/熊市週期的結束，從而帶來更加穩定的市場環境。
As the market evolves, the original ethos of crypto as a decentralized alternative to traditional currencies may also change, with institutional and potentially sovereign ownership reshaping the landscape.
隨着市場的發展，加密貨幣作爲傳統貨幣的去中心化替代品的原始精神也可能發生變化，機構所有權和潛在的主權所有權將重塑格局。
This new phase could reduce volatility, allowing crypto companies to focus on long-term development rather than navigating intense market cycles.
這個新階段可以降低波動性，使加密公司能夠專注於長期發展，而不是駕馭激烈的市場週期。
Why It Matters: The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a paradigm shift, as evidenced by Bitcoin's recent surge above $70,000, a level it has maintained following positive GDP and jobless claims data. This rally is not isolated, as Bitcoin had previously soared to a new all-time high, signaling a potentially major breakout pattern.
爲何重要：加密貨幣市場正在經歷範式轉變，比特幣最近飆升至70,000美元以上即爲明證，在國內生產總值和申請失業救濟人數積極數據之後，比特幣一直保持這一水平。這種漲勢並不是孤立的，因爲比特幣此前曾飆升至歷史新高，這表明可能出現重大突破模式。
Moreover, the upcoming Bitcoin halving is expected to further enhance ETF opportunities in the cryptocurrency sector. Analysts, including Michael Graham from Canaccord Genuity, believe that the halving could boost the ETF tailwinds for Bitcoin, contributing to its Q1 2024 value surge of over 60%.
此外，預計即將到來的比特幣減半將進一步增加加密貨幣行業的ETF機會。包括來自Canaccord Genuity的邁克爾·格雷厄姆在內的分析師認爲，減半可能會提振比特幣的ETF利好勢頭，使其2024年第一季度的價值飆升超過60％。
The combined influence of ETFs, institutional investment, and the halving event is reshaping the Bitcoin market, potentially leading to a new era of stability and growth for cryptocurrencies.
ETF、機構投資和減半事件的綜合影響正在重塑比特幣市場，有可能開啓加密貨幣穩定和增長的新時代。
Photo via Shutterstock
照片來自 Shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。