23 年末总资产、贷款、存款增速分别为+6.6%、+7.0%、+8.6%，较9 月末-2.2pct、-0.9pct、-1.6pct。Q4 公司债券、贷款均环比小幅收缩，对公、零售贷款略有缩表，票据有所冲量。公司深耕普惠小微，23 年普惠小微贷款余额1285 亿元，同比+13.69%，增量、存量均居全市第一。2023 年息差1.73%，较Q3 下降4bp，23 年生息资产收益率、贷款收益率较1-6 月-8bp、-13bp至3.67%、4.37%，或因收益较高的零售贷款占比下行；计息负债成本率、存款成本率分别较1-6 月-2bp、-6bp 至2.03%、1.88%，主要受益于压降高息存款，负债结构优化。Non-interest income is impressive, and poor overall stable
The company's net profit and operating income in 2023 were +6.1% and -3.6%, respectively. The growth rate was -1.6 pct and -0.7 pct in January-September, the 2023 ROE was -0.18 pct to 9.58% year on year, the dividend ratio for 23 was 30.1%, and the A-share dividend rate was 6.20%. Given that interest spreads are still under pressure, we forecast EPS of 0.99/1.04/1.09 yuan in 2024-26 and 10.90 yuan of BVPS in 24, corresponding to 0.43/0.27 times PB for A/H shares. The 24-year wind of the A/H share comparison company agreed to expect PB 0.54/0.24 times. The company's county layout advantage is stable, and the retail and BBC ecological strategies are beginning to show results. Compared with H shares, the company's operation is more steady than H shares. However, since it is still in a transition period, A/H shares were given a 24-year target PB0.50/0.35 times, target price of 5.45 yuan/HK$4.13. A shares maintained an “increase” rating, and H shares maintained a “buy” rating.
Loan growth is slowing down, and inclusiveness continues to be cultivated
The growth rates of total assets, loans, and deposits at the end of 23 were +6.6%, +7.0%, and +8.6%, respectively, compared with -2.2 pct, -0.9 pct, and -1.6 pct at the end of September. Q4 Corporate bonds and loans all contracted slightly month-on-month. Public and retail loans shrank slightly, and notes had an impact. The company is deeply involved in Inclusive Small and Micro. The balance of Inclusive Small and Micro loans in '23 was 128.5 billion yuan, +13.69% year-on-year, ranking first in the city in terms of growth and stock. The 2023 interest spread was 1.73%, down 4 bps from Q3. The 23-year yield on interest-bearing assets and loan yields were down from January-June to -8 bps, -13 bp to 3.67% and 4.37%, or due to higher yield retail loans; interest-bearing debt cost ratio and deposit cost ratio compared to January-June -2bp, -6bp to 2.03% and 1.88%, respectively, mainly benefiting from reduced pressure on high-interest deposits and debt structure optimization.
Other bright spots are under pressure, and financial management business is under pressure
The company's non-interest revenue in '23 was +24.4%, and the growth rate was 17.9pct higher than Q1-3. Mainly due to profit and loss from investment and profit and loss from changes in fair value +19.1% and 106.7%, respectively, the increase was impressive. Intermediate business revenue was -6.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was -1.9pct compared to January-September. Mainly due to large capital market fluctuations, financial management fees were -50.8% year-on-year. The balance of non-capital protected financial management at the end of 23 was 109.6 billion yuan, compared to -3.4% at the end of June. The company accelerated the construction of the BBC financial ecosystem. In '23, merchant transaction amount was +13.8%; merchant AUM+LUM had an average daily balance of 142,094 billion yuan, +45.36% year over year. Benefiting from the growth in merchant business, bank card revenue was +31.3% year over year.
Provision is made to make up for consolidation, poor retail fluctuations
The non-performing loan ratio and provision coverage ratio at the end of '23 were 1.19% and 367%, respectively, -1 bp and +13pct month-on-month.
The share of concerned loans remained flat at 1.14% at the end of June, and the overall asset quality was stable. The non-performing ratio for public loans and personal loans decreased by 24 bps and increased by 26 bps to 1.04% and 1.60% respectively from the end of June. Among personal loans, the operating loan non-performing ratio increased by 30 bps to 2.05% in a single quarter. Focus on the subsequent bad trend. The company's Q4 annualized bad generation rate was 1.13%, up 42 bps month-on-month, and the Q4 annualized credit cost was 1.54%, -18 bps year-on-year. The company's capital strength is strong. The capital adequacy ratio and core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio at the end of '23 were 15.99% and 13.53% respectively, +0.37pct and +0.35pct compared to the previous month.
Risk warning: Economic recovery fell short of expectations, and the deterioration in asset quality exceeded expectations.
