COUNTRY GARDEN SERVICES(6098.HK):RESULTS DROP LARGELY DUE TO IMPAIRMENTS CASH FLOW REMAINS STRONG
COUNTRY GARDEN SERVICES(6098.HK):RESULTS DROP LARGELY DUE TO IMPAIRMENTS CASH FLOW REMAINS STRONG
Country Garden Services' (CGS) revenue edged up by 3.0% YoY to RMB42.6bn, in line with our estimation. Gross margin narrowed by 4.3ppts to 20.5%, 3.4ppts below our estimation. Gross margin for all segments narrowed, with that for community and non-community VAS narrowed the most, by 14.1ppts and 12.6ppts, respectively. The former mainly due to decrease in some higher margin businesses, and the latter due to CGS stopping to recognise revenue from risky customers including related party since August 2023 while continuing to book related costs. SG&A as % of revenue declined by 1.5ppts to 9.9%, 3.7ppts below our estimation. CGS provided RMB1.5bn and RMB2.6bn impairments for goodwill and account receivables in 2023, respectively, causing reported net profit to drop by 85% YoY to RMB292m, 45.1% and 90.8% below BOCI and market estimations. Excluding one-off items, core net profit dropped by 21.6% YoY to RMB3.94bn, while operating cash flow amounted to RMB4.61bn. CGS maintained 25% payout ratio based on core net profit, and was 337% of reported net profit. We cut our 2024-25E core EPS by 27.1-28.9%, respectively, factoring in lower margin. Considering strong cash flow and cheap valuation, we maintain BUY rating on the stock.
根據我們的估計，碧桂園服務（CGS）的收入同比增長3.0％，達到426億元人民幣。毛利率縮小了4.3個百分點至20.5％，比我們的估計低3.4個百分點。所有細分市場的毛利率均收窄，其中社區和非社區增值稅的毛利率收窄幅度最大，分別下降了14.1個百分點和12.6個百分點。前者主要是由於一些利潤率較高的業務減少，後者是由於CGS自2023年8月以來停止確認來自包括關聯方在內的風險客戶的收入，同時繼續記賬相關成本。銷售和收購佔收入的百分比下降了1.5個百分點至9.9％，比我們的估計低3.7個百分點。CGS在2023年分別爲商譽和應收賬款提供了15億元和26億元人民幣的減值，導致報告的淨利潤同比下降85％，至人民幣2.92億元，比中銀國際和市場預期低45.1％和90.8％。不包括一次性項目，核心淨利潤同比下降21.6％，至39.4億元人民幣，而運營現金流爲46.1億元人民幣。根據核心淨利潤，CGS維持25％的派息率，佔報告淨利潤的337％。考慮到利潤率的降低，我們將2024-25年度的核心每股收益分別下調了27.1-28.9％。考慮到強勁的現金流和低估值，我們維持該股的買入評級。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
New contracted area from third-party market expansion amounted to 76m sqm. Corresponding new contracted value amounted to RMB3.726bn, decreasing by 24% YoY. Among the 1,556 newly obtained projects from third-party, 36% were residential, 20% were public, 21% were commercial and offices, 14% were city management projects.
第三方市場擴張的新簽約面積爲7600萬平方米。相應的新合同價值爲人民幣37.26億元，同比下降24％。在從第三方新獲得的1,556個項目中，36％是住宅項目，20％是公共項目，21％是商業和辦公項目，14％是城市管理項目。
Community VAS revenue declined by 6.6% YoY to RMB3.75bn, largely due to decline in property market related businesses such as home decoration and property brokerage. As these sub segments are also with higher margin, gross margin of the segment narrowed by 14.1ppts to 39.4%. The decrease in gross margin was also partially attributable to CGS's investment into establishing stronger product and service capabilities.
社區增值稅收入同比下降6.6％，至37.5億元人民幣，這主要是由於房屋裝飾和房地產經紀等房地產市場相關業務的下滑。由於這些子細分市場的利潤率也更高，該細分市場的毛利率縮小了14.1個百分點至39.4％。毛利率的下降也部分歸因於CGS對建立更強的產品和服務能力的投資。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Slower economic growth could lead to decline in community VAS revenue.
經濟增長放緩可能導致社區增值稅收入下降。
Valuation
估價
We rolled our P/E valuation to 2025E, and expanded our target P/E from 5x to 6x, considering significantly stronger than expected operating cash flow. The stock currently trades at 4.9x 2025E P/E, and 5.1% 2025E yield, which we think is undemanding, given strong cash flow and solid third-party expansion.
考慮到運營現金流明顯強於預期，我們將市盈率估值上調至2025年，並將目標市盈率從5倍擴大至6倍。該股目前的市盈率爲2025年的4.9倍，2025年收益率爲5.1％，鑑於強勁的現金流和穩健的第三方擴張，我們認爲這並不苛刻。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。